Michigan State is the fourth-worst team remaining, according to the advanced metrics, but here they are, two steps away from the Final Four.
The Spartans' odds to win the 2023 NCAA Tournament were buoyed to +2500 after a win against Marquette on Sunday afternoon.
That implies odds of about 3.9% that the Spartans will win the national championship.
Those odds have fallen drastically since before the game, when the Spartans were as long as +5500 to win it all.
Michigan State has +260 odds to make the Final Four, implying about a 28% chance that the Spartans win their region.
The Spartans play Kansas State in the Sweet 16. They opened as 1-point underdogs in this contest.
While KenPom ranks Michigan State as the 28th-best team in college basketball, Kansas State is 22nd.
And Bart Torvik's T-Rankings has Kansas State at No. 23, while Michigan State sits at No. 27.
A win there vaults them to the Elite Eight, where they'd play one of Tennessee, Fairleigh Dickinson or Florida Atlantic for an Eastern Region championship.
The Spartans eked out a tight victory over No. 2 seed Marquette on Sunday as about +150 underdogs on the moneyline — so they're familiar with being the underdog.
The markets generally priced Michigan State correctly all season — the Spartans finished a market equilibrium 16-16 against the spread.
For more Action Network coverage of the 2023 NCAA Tournament, check out the latest college basketball odds, as well as the public betting percentage breakdowns for all of the 2023 NCAA Tournament games.
