2023 March Madness Round of 64 Expert Betting Predictions: 1st Half Unders?

2023 March Madness Round of 64 Expert Betting Predictions: 1st Half Unders? article feature image
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  • This first half betting trend has been electric for the past decade and it applies for several Round of 64 games today and tomorrow.
  • Read further to glean which games to target and what the parameters of this betting system are.

Since 2011, there has been a trend that has left sharps incredibly profitable.

Over the past decade-plus, first-half unders have won about 60% of the time during the Round of 64 and First Four.

When expanding the scope to the entire tournament, first-half unders win about 58% of the time.

Let's get more granular with this, though.

First-half unders for games that start at 2 p.m. ET or earlier have gone under 66% of the time when the total is fewer than 70 points. That's an eye-popping 25% ROI since 2011. A $500 per game bettor would be up about $11,250.

For the Round of 64, here are the games with a requisite first-half total under 70 and that tip off before 2 p.m. ET. Listed is also the best market price and which sportsbook is providing it.

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Maryland vs. West Virginia

Tipoff on Thursday, March 16 at 12:15 p.m. ET

Virginia vs. Furman

Tipoff on Thursday, March 16 at 12:40 p.m. ET

  • Under 61.5 (-115). BetMGM.

A note here that the 1:40 p.m. ET tipoff between Missouri vs. Utah State has a total over 70. If that ever dips below — unlikely — it would fit under these parameters.

Kansas vs. Howard

Tipoff on Thursday, March 16 at 2 p.m. ET

Michigan State vs. USC

Tipoff on Friday, March 17 at 12:15 p.m. ET

  • Under 64 (-106). BetRivers.

Like the aforementioned Missouri vs. Utah State game, Xavier vs. Kennesaw State (tipoff at 12:40 p.m. ET) doesn't fit the parameters of this system.

Baylor vs. UC Santa Barbara

Tipoff on Friday, March 17 at 1:30 p.m. ET

  • Under 68 (-108). BetRivers.

Saint Mary's vs. VCU

Tipoff on Friday, March 17 at 2 p.m. ET

About the Author
Avery Yang is an editor at the Action Network who focuses on breaking news across the sports world and betting algorithms that try to predict eventual outcomes. He is also Darren Rovell's editor. Avery is a recent graduate from Northwestern University's Medill School of Journalism. He has written for the Washington Post, the Associated Press, Sports Illustrated, (the old) Deadspin, MLB.com and others.

Follow Avery Yang @avery_yang on Twitter/X.

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