With the first round tipping off on Wednesday, it's time for our full betting preview and best bets for the American Athletic Conference Tournament.
This is the fourth straight season the AAC is holding its tournament at Dickies Arena in Fort Worth. There's no break in the action until the championship game on Sunday afternoon on ESPN.
Over the nine years of this conference’s existence, the regular-season champion has won the tournament four times. One thing to note is that six of the previous tournament winners are no longer in the league.
This season, South Florida capped off an impressive regular season to earn the No. 1 seed. Meanwhile, the preseason favorite — Florida Atlantic — is on the other side of the bracket.
Both of those squads are in the NCAA Tournament field, according to Bracket Matrix, but they don’t have any room for error.
Those are the only AAC squads in the running for invitations to the Big Dance, which should give us another exciting conference tournament.
AAC Tournament Odds & Bracket
| Teams | Odds |
|---|---|
| FAU | +185 |
| SMU | +400 |
| USF | +500 |
| Memphis | +500 |
| North Texas | +850 |
| Charlotte | +1500 |
| UAB | +1600 |
| Tulane | +8000 |
| East Carolina | +8000 |
| Wichita State | +9000 |
| Tulsa | +15000 |
| Temple | +50000 |
| Rice | +50000 |
| UTSA | +100000 |
The American Men's Basketball Championship 𝐁𝐑𝐀𝐂𝐊𝐄𝐓 𝐈𝐒 𝐒𝐄𝐓 🏆
You're going to want to grab your popcorn for this one🍿#AmericanHoopspic.twitter.com/tRbdOpHrSg
— The American (@American_Conf) March 10, 2024
The Favorite: FAU +185
While it was likely disappointing not to secure the top seed, I feel that head coach Dusty May’s team landed on the easier side of the bracket.
The Owls will avoid South Florida, Memphis and UAB until the championship game. They also get SMU and Charlotte as the highest other seeds on their side, and both struggled down the stretch.
Ultimately, I think it comes down to whether or not this FAU team is motivated to win the tournament, which has been a question unanswered for all of AAC play. However, there have seen signs in recent games that the Final Four team is still in there somewhere.
In the final six contests of the regular season, Florida Atlantic faced a gauntlet of opponents. May’s squad ended that stretch with a 4-2 record with wins over SMU, Tulane, North Texas and Memphis.
I do wish the number was a little bigger, but at +185 at DraftKings, I like the path for the league’s most talented team to go on another run.
Can USF Do the Double?
If we're talking about the easiest path to get to the semifinals, you would have to give that title to USF.
It then comes down to how you feel about the Bulls against either Memphis or UAB in that round.
In the regular season, South Florida fell by four points to the Blazers in Birmingham before downing the Tigers with a thrilling comeback on the road.
The Bulls are rated as the third-best AAC team in conference play and on the road in league action, per BartTorvik. However, there are still a couple of question marks coming into the tournament.
ShotQuality gives USF a luck record of -17.37, with Memphis being the only team in the league with a lower mark. The Bulls have shot the ball extremely well, but I wonder if they're due for that to swing the other way at some point this week.
Meanwhile, I also feel South Florida benefited from an easier conference schedule. Of the 18 AAC contests, only seven came against teams that finished in the top seven of the American.
That's fewer than all of the other top schools in the league, which could show here. At +500, I’m going to pass.
Favorite AAC Tournament Betting Angle
Target North Texas vs. Tulane Winner as Long Shot
Action Network's Stuckey mentioned this in Part 8 of the Conference Tournament Betting Preview on the "Big Bets on Campus" podcast, and I agree with him. I wish these two were not paired against each other in the second round.
However, I believe we'd still get a good price on either team no matter who wins that matchup on Thursday.
Yes, I understand the winner gets FAU in the quarterfinals, but both squads have played the Owls extremely close. North Texas and Tulane combined to go 0-4 straight up against Florida Atlantic in the regular season by an average margin of 3.5 points.
Starting with the Mean Green, BartTorvik has only SMU rated higher in AAC play. This is also the same squad that has a luck record of +10.92, per ShotQuality, which is one of the highest in the league.
I also like North Texas’ style of play in the postseason. Only Virginia plays at a slower tempo, so every game is a half-court contest that's built for March. Those matchups are hard to prep for.
Meanwhile, Tulane is just too talented to be priced at +8000. Whether it’s Kevin Cross or Jaylen Forbes, either can get hot at any moment on the offensive end of the floor.
Once you add in the Green Wave’s tempo and 3-point shooting, it can lead to the type of variance that can cause issues in a tournament setting.
I would play Tulane very small pre-tournament, and you can wait on North Texas after the head-to-head matchup is done.
