The newly-named Coastal Athletic Association has been one of the most competitive leagues all season. Second and seventh place are currently separated by just two games, suggesting we could see a wild and wacky postseason tournament.
That wouldn’t be unprecedented for the CAA, as the five-seed Delaware Blue Hens captured the auto-bid in 2022 and the six-seed Drexel Dragons won in 2021.
Charleston has emerged as the odds-on favorite, but the Cougars aren’t invulnerable. UNC Wilmington swept C of C in the regular season, and Towson popped the Cougars on the road.
With how much Charleston relies on the 3-ball, and given that its defense ranks just sixth in adjusted efficiency in CAA play, a postseason conference title is far from a guarantee.
Aside from Charleston, the primary contenders appear to be UNC Wilmington, Drexel, Hofstra and Towson. Delaware, Monmouth and Stony Brook are long shots, but it will almost certainly come down to the top five squads in the league.
The top five have beaten up on each other all year long, and no one has truly shown dominance.
UNCW has owned Charleston but lost to both Towson and Drexel. Towson lost its only contest to Hofstra and split with Charleston. Hofstra fell to both Charleston and Drexel. Drexel hasn’t beaten Charleston or Towson.
Of the long shots, Monmouth looks like the most intriguing option.
Led by one of the most electric scorers in the league in Xander Rice, the Hawks have landed several knockout punches this season. Monmouth has wins over Towson, Hofstra and Drexel this year, albeit all on its home floor.
UNC Wilmington Basketball Breakdown
UNCW is the best bet outside of Charleston, and it’s been knocking on the door for three straight seasons under Takayo Siddle.
The Seahawks have lost in the conference championship in two straight seasons, but perhaps 2024 is finally when they get over the hump and back to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2017.
UNCW owns the most impressive win of any CAA team this season with its victory over Kentucky at Rupp Arena, proving it can compete with literally anyone in the country.
The Seahawks offense has been among the best in the league thanks to rock-solid ball handling and finishing inside the arc. Only two teams in the country have turned the ball over at a lower rate than UNCW — sometimes surviving in March comes down to making the fewest mistakes, and the Seahawks’ ball security gives them an inherent advantage.
Siddle’s experienced roster seems built for March, led by five upperclassmen, two of whom are fifth-year players.
Point guard Shykeim Phillips has been one of the best table-setters in the country this season, leading the CAA in assist rate while also ranking 10th in turnover rate. Phillips ranks sixth nationally in assist-to-turnover ratio.
His frontcourt counterpart, Trazarien White, has a strong case for CAA Player of the Year. He’s averaging a robust 20.0 points per game, good for fourth in the conference, and ranks eighth in the league in rebounding. His combination of high usage and high efficiency is a rarity in the sport.
If you’re a fan of Ken Pomeroy and his glorious college basketball site, KenPom, you know UNCW actually ranks as the No. 1 team in the CAA, six spots ahead of Charleston at No. 107 in the country.
The Seahawks will likely be on the other side of the bracket as the Cougars, they're arguably the best team in the CAA, and have one of the best mid-major point guards in the land and one of the best mid-major players. Given all that, a conference championship seems well within reach, and they would be a strong bet on North Carolina betting apps.
One thing is for certain in the CAA Tournament, though: Nothing is for certain.
