2024 March Madness: Women’s NCAA Tournament Preview, Betting Picks

The bracket has been set for the 2024 NCAA Women’s Tournament, and just like the previous two seasons, the South Carolina Gamecocks are the top overall seed and massive favorites (-135) to win the National Championship.

Caitlin Clark, JuJu Watkins, Hannah Hidalgo, Cameron Brink, Paige Bueckers and more will all be battling out to try and take down Dawn Staley and the 32-0 Gamecocks. With the amount of star power in the women’s tournament, there’s going to be plenty of eyes on the games and plenty to bet on throughout 2024 March Madness.

Before we look deeper at each region in the field, there are some important factors to consider when betting the women’s tournament and filling out your bracket.

• Unlike true neutral sites for each round of the men’s tournament, the top four seeds in each region host the first two rounds of the NCAA tournament at their home arena.
• Don’t look to move #14, #15, #16 seeds any further on your bracket or place a moneyline bet on one of these long shots in the first round. They are a combined 1-335 since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1994.
• The Final Four has featured a #3 seed or lower only twice in the past six tournaments.

Let’s break down the bracket and determine where there is still value with futures, look ahead to some potential first round upsets, and identify a few sleepers who could make a run to the Final Four.

2024 March Madness: Women's NCAA Tournament Preview, Betting Picks

Albany 1 Region (#1 Seed: South Carolina)

Ultimately, all roads lead to South Carolina, but there’s potential for some fireworks in this region.

Value on futures: Ole Miss +50000 (FanDuel)

Coach Yolett McCuin has the Lady Rebels poised for another run and is no stranger to upsets on the road in Round 2. Last year as an 8-seed, Ole Miss took down #1 seed Stanford in Palo Alto in a game that the Cardinal never led. Notre Dame will be a tough matchup, but with the defensive energy the Lady Rebels bring, and the lack of depth the Irish have after losing starting center Kylee Watson for the rest of the season, Ole Miss could find themselves in the Sweet Sixteen for the second straight year. Of course, all roads do lead to South Carolina, which would be tough, but I wouldn’t be shocked if Ole Miss made an Elite Eight, and hopefully we will have odds for that bet.

Potential First Round Upset: #12 Florida Gulf Coast University (FGCU) vs. #5 Oklahoma

Oklahoma started their season of a rebuilding year in a landslide, and after losing at home to Southern University as 27-point favorites in December, eventually won the regular season Big 12 championship. Still, this team has a lot of flaws defensively, is still building cohesiveness and relies heavily on the three point shot. Meanwhile, one of the best coaches in women’s basketball, Karl Smesko, and his analytics-driven approach prove to be a tough matchup for any opponent. FGCU is no stranger to the upset. The 12-seeded Eagles took down the 2023 Pac 12 tournament champion Washington State in the first round last season, and I’m sure they would love to do it again. On a neutral court, I give the Eagles a great shot to get it done against the Sooners.

Sleeper of the Region: #6 Nebraska

Nebraska was a play away from changing the seeding of the entire tournament as they fell in overtime to the now 1-seeded Iowa Hawkeyes in the Big 10 championship game. Amy Williams has a deep roster that has gotten hot at the right time. Led by fifth-year senior guard Jaz Shelley, junior center Alexis Markowski, and Big 10 Freshman of the Year, forward Natalie Potts, the Huskers could shock the world and carry their hot shooting all the way to a matchup with South Carolina.

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Albany 2 Region (#1 Seed: Iowa)

I couldn’t believe my eyes when this region was announced and called it the ‘Region of Death’ on Action’s Bracket Reveal Show.

Iowa’s Path to a Final Four

Being a 1-seed is great, but it looks a lot better in any other region if you’re Iowa. Including Iowa, this region features six teams that rank in the top 25 in HerHoopStat.com’s Defensive Rating, and five teams that rank in the top 25 in HerHoopStat.com’s Offensive rating.

The Hawkeyes will be tested rather quickly after demolishing the winner of Holy Cross and UT Martin in the first round. In the second round they will face the winner of Princeton and West Virginia. Both teams present difficult obstacles for Caitlin Clark and the Hawkeyes, but there’s no way Clark is losing her last game ever at Carver-Hawkeye Arena, right?

In a Sweet Sixteen matchup, you’re probably looking at a game against Kansas State, who the Hawkeyes have faced twice already. They split the season series, with the Hawkeyes losing at home as 16-point favorites and winning by 7 at a neutral site as 8 point favorites.

In a Regional final, we either get a National Championship rematch with Angel Reese and LSU or a star-loaded matchup against UCLA. Both teams will be tough for Caitlin Clark and the Hawkeyes to make it through, but get your popcorn ready either way.

Value on futures: UCLA +2500 (FanDuel)

The Lady Bruins have so much talent on this roster and could have easily been a #1 seed had they not been taken down by USC in the PAC-12 tournament semifinals. Lauren Betts is an absolute cheat code. Standing at 6’7", with incredible touch, she should feast on their first and second round matchups, setting up a Sweet Sixteen matchup with last year’s national champion, the LSU Tigers. If the Bruins can get by Angel Reese and the Tigers, they have more than a fighting chance against Caitlin Clark and Iowa.

Potential First Round Upset: #12 Drake vs. #5 Colorado

HerHoopStats.com predicts an 8-point win for the Buffaloes of Colorado against the MVC champion Drake Bulldogs, but I gotta ride with Drake. Colorado ended their season losing six of their final eight games in Pac-12 play, with their only two wins against teams that did not make the NCAA tournament in Oregon and Washington. On a neutral court, with added pressure, I love the Bulldogs to pull off the upset.

Sleeper of the Region: #7 Creighton

Hard to trust any Big East team outside of UConn in March, but Jim Flannery’s squad is the only one to pull off the monumental upset before. In 2022, Lauren Jenson hit the shot heard round the world as then #10 seed knocked off #2 seed Iowa in Carver-Hawkeye Arena and sparked a run for the Bluejays to the Elite Eight.

Four of the five leading scorers from that team are still playing at Creighton, but it would take a monumental effort to get past UCLA.

Portland 3 Region (#1 Seed: USC)

JuJu Watkins, Georgia Amoore, Dyaisha Fair, Paige Bueckers and Jacy Sheldon all in one region will showcase some of the best guards in the country.

Value on futures: Ohio State +2800 (Caesars); UConn +2500 (FanDuel)

I know Ohio State and UConn will end up playing each other in the Sweet Sixteen here, but I love whoever comes out on top to take down USC en route to the Final Four. USC is still a fantastic team and has one of the best players in the country in JuJu Watkins. With that being said, I don’t see Ohio State losing to USC twice in the same season, and if UConn makes it past Ohio State, I am taking Geno Auriemma and Paige Bueckers to get UConn back to the Final Four.

Potential First Round Upset: #13 Marshall vs. #4 Virginia Tech

A lot is riding on the status of three-time ACC player of the year Elizabeth Kitley’s health. After losing in Virginia Tech’s regular season finale at Virginia, the star center missed the ACC tournament and word hasn’t been announced for her status this week yet. Marshall plays a hectic 94-feet defense that led James Madison to commit 39 turnovers in their conference championship game. It’s exhausting, and with shooters on the perimeter, Marshall could pull off the mighty upset against Virginia Tech at home if Kitley is not able to go.

Sleeper of the Region: #7 Duke

The advanced analytics love the Duke Blue Devils, and they’re capable of taking down any team in front of them, or losing in bad-fashion. They’re a young group, but the defensive metrics are off the charts. Duke is ranked fourth nationally in HerHoopStats’ Defensive Rating only behind South Carolina, UConn and Texas.

Portland 4 Region (#1 Seed: Texas)

Winning the Big 12 Championship in dominating fashion was enough for the Texas Longhorns to secure a #1 seed as they leaped the PAC-12 runner-up Stanford.

Value on futures: Texas +4000 (ESPNBet)

If you would have told me back in December after losing their All-American Guard and focal point of Vic Schaefer’s system, Rori Harmon, that Texas would be a #1 seed in the tournament, I would have been floored. After going 3-0 ATS and cruising past Iowa State in the Big 12 championship, I couldn’t be more impressed with this squad. I love their chance to make it to Cleveland out of this region.

(Editor's note: Too many people loved the value on Texas, as this has now been bet down to +1800.)

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Potential First Round Upset: #11 Green Bay vs. #6 Tennessee

Green Bay positioned themselves for an at-large bid had they not won their conference tournament. With non-conference wins over Creighton and Washington State, and a top-25 offense in the country, this is not a team that anyone wants to face. Add in a head coach who is on the hot seat at one of the most storied programs in the country in Tennessee, and we could see a major upset here.

Sleeper of the Region: #10 Maryland

I’ve been down on Maryland a lot this season, but they have a pretty favorable road as far as #10 seeds go in this bracket. If they can get past a young Iowa State squad, I like their chances against this Stanford team. Brenda Frese will have the Terps ready for anyone, and it’s impossible to count them out in March.

Overall, we should see an exciting NCAA tournament and I will be providing picks for every game throughout the tournament here on Action Network.