The Sweet 16 is one of my favorite times to bet the futures market.
It's the perfect point of the NCAA Tournament when books and bettors get overconfident in the favorites with futures set to pay out almost immediately in the next week or two.
If you like a potential upcoming matchup — not necessarily the next one — you can find a path forward for even the long shots and spot value on the board.
I'm staying away from the West, but I see an underdog in each of the other three regions I'm eyeing to make a Final Four run. I may not bet title futures on these teams since No. 1 seeds usually win in the end, but a Final Four bet requires just two more wins. If we bet all three below and hit at least one, we come out marginally ahead. Hit two and we're rolling.
Here's how I see value on Duke, Creighton and Illinois to make the Final Four.
Duke to Make the Final Four (+380, DraftKings)
It's not often bettors can actually find value on Duke, but it's not often Duke is a No. 4 seed either.
History hasn't been kind to Duke when seeded this low. The Blue Devils haven't even made it past the Sweet 16 as a No. 4 seed or worse since 1980.
Might these Dukies be slightly under-seeded, though? The ACC went undefeated in the first and second rounds, and Duke has about as good of an analytical profile as North Carolina, arguably better. Duke lost six ACC games but five of them were by five or less. UNC beat Duke both times in competitive games and thus deserved the higher seed, but should Carolina really have been three seeds higher?
Duke profiles closer to a No. 2 seed, and a dangerous one with a top-20 defense per KenPom and one of the country's best, hottest offenses. That gives Duke a chance against Houston's nasty defense, and that's the key to the value here.
The Cougars can be matchup-dependent. They typically force a ton of turnovers and rack up offensive rebounds, using those extra possessions to juice an offense that isn't elite on a per-possession basis. But Duke doesn't turn it over much, and the Blue Devils have the size to hang on the glass and grab some offensive boards of their own.
Houston is one of the slower teams in the country, and Duke likes it slow too. Slower games mean fewer possessions for the favorite and often inevitably make for closer games — and more chances for the underdog. Slow tempo has been a hallmark of No. 1 seed giants that have fallen in the recent past like Virginia, Purdue, and this Houston squad.
Duke is more than live against Houston, and I see plenty of value on the +170 moneyline.
If Duke advances, Marquette is the likely opponent. The Golden Eagles are the seed favorite, but I might make Duke the favorite in that matchup. They have the experience factor on this stage, and they'd have a big advantage on the glass and would likely win the 3-point battle by a significant margin.
A matchup against 11-seed NC State would probably be tougher than you think — the teams split a pair of games the final week of the season, and conference underdogs are always tough outs in the NCAA Tournament — but Duke would obviously be a clear favorite.
Duke doesn't have a superstar, but in Kyle Filipowski, Jared McClain, Tyrese Proctor and Jeremy Roach, the Blue Devils have four future NBA draft picks all capable of stepping up to win a game. Duke ranked top three in the preseason polls, typically a strong indicator of potential postseason success, and they've played up against top competition.
Somehow, the Blue Devils are actually underrated, and it starts with a Houston matchup Duke can win.
Creighton to Make the Final Four (+500, bet365)
The Bluejays came one point away from their first-ever Final Four one year ago before falling to San Diego State, but they have a real opportunity to finish the job this time around.
I like Creighton's chances in all three possible Midwest matchups.
Let's start with Tennessee, a team bettors should be looking to fade. The Vols have been a top-four seed eight times and were upset every time without an Elite Eight berth. Rick Barnes is 6-20 ATS in the NCAA tournament as anything other than a seed favorite of at least 10, covering just one of his last 16 games.
If Tennessee doesn't cover as 2.5-point favorites — and that will be one of my favorite ATS bets this round — then by definition, Creighton has a pretty solid chance of winning the game.
I like Purdue in the other Sweet 16 matchup, though Braden Smith is a bit banged up.
Creighton takes a ton of 3s and can gain a real advantage on 3-pointers against Purdue. The Bluejays also rebound well and can offset a typical Purdue strength there. Creighton also fouls less than any team in the nation, potentially eliminating what is typically a huge strength for Purdue at the line.
Ryan Kalkbrenner is a beast and one of the few big men in the nation with the size and ability to at least hold his own against Zach Edey. Creighton has the clear better roster around its big man, so if Kalkbrenner can play Edey to anything close to a draw, the Bluejays would have a good chance.
If it's Gonzaga that Creighton faces instead, I like Creighton a lot. They can offset Gonzaga's typical rebounding and turnover margin strengths, and it's another team the Bluejays would likely have a serious 3-point margin advantage on. Gonzaga relies heavily on Anton Watson, and if he struggles against Kalkbrenner or gets into foul trouble, the Zags don't have great depth behind him.
Creighton is a balanced team that has come on hot down the stretch with big wins over UConn and Marquette, and they can put up eye-popping efficiency numbers on offense when the 3s fall and the team gets to the line consistently.
Trey Alexander and Baylor Scheiermann are future NBA players, which gives Creighton two proven closers who have both hit big shots in close games over and over again in their careers. This region should have close, competitive games, and you want these guys on your side late in games.
Creighton is being priced as a relatively long shot in this region, similar to Gonzaga. I think the Bluejays should be the second favorite in the Midwest. I make them closer to +300 to make their first Final Four.
Illinois to Make the Final Four (+600, DraftKings)
At this point of the NCAA Tournament, it's often very difficult to imagine anything other than the heavily favored No. 1 seeds doing what's expected and smashing all foes.
All the more so in UConn's case as the defending national champion. The Huskies are absolutely loaded, great defensively, and elite on offense at No. 2 in Adjusted Offense, per KenPom.
Guess who's number one.
Illinois overtook UConn for the top ranking after an electric opening weekend in which the Illini thrashed both opponents, outside of a 9-0 hole when Morehead State hit a trio of 3s in the opening minute.
Illinois scored 85 and 89 points, but it wasn't just those two games. The Illini scored 98 and 93 to close out the Big 10 Tournament, and this offense has been red hot for a while now.
The Adjusted Offensive Ratings of all Sweet 16 teams over the last 10 games 👀 pic.twitter.com/jnhRtgeMXA
— CBB Analytics (@CBBAnalytics) March 26, 2024
That No. 1 offense will run up against the nation's No. 1 defense in Iowa State.
The Cyclones are slight favorites as the higher seed, but I love this matchup for the Illini. Great offense typically beats great defense. Illinois may get to the line often with how aggressive ISU is in defense, and the Illini have good enough guard play to cut down the turnovers the Cyclones are so adept at forcing.
Illinois should also have a big advantage on the glass and will almost certainly score more efficiently. The Illini defense is not good, but Iowa State struggles to score efficiently and isn't built to take advantage of the Illini flaws. If Illinois generates more possessions on the glass and scores more efficiently in those possessions too, it's all on Iowa State forcing enough turnovers to close the gap at that point.
I think Illinois should be favored, so I'll be playing the +105 moneyline.
That likely sets up a matchup against UConn. I see little reason to believe San Diego State has much shot. The Aztecs are worse than they were a year ago, UConn is better than they were, and that title game was not competitive. If it's San Diego State instead, our ticket got a gift. If you agree it's likely UConn, you may be better off just rolling over your moneyline winnings than playing this ticket.
So can Illinois actually beat UConn?
It won't be easy. There's little reason to believe the Illini defense will slow UConn down. That alone could be a death knell. UConn will get up a bunch of 3s, and if the Huskies' shots are falling on top of the easy stuff they'll get against Illinois, it's probably lights out for this bet.
But the way to beat UConn isn't to try to stop the offense. It's to match it, bucket for bucket, and hope to get some lucky shot variance along the way.
Illinois is one of the few teams in the nation with an offense that can genuinely match UConn bucket for bucket — one of the only such teams left.
The Illini lost to Marquette, Tennessee, and Purdue (twice) this season but were competitive in every game. They never lost by double digits once all season. The offense is always capable of getting Illinois back in the game, eating glass, earning freebies, and hitting shot after shot, especially if Terrence Shannon Jr. is on another heater.
It can feel terrible betting against a heavy favorite like UConn, but that's often exactly when bettors need to do it. The most invincible teams are the ones to fade. No defending champ has advanced past the Sweet 16 since 2007, and only one of the last nine No. 1 overall seeds made the Final Four.
There aren't many teams that can beat UConn head-to-head. Illinois is one of them, and the Illini are the best value on the board. I put Illinois closer to +350, showing big value on a +600 ticket.
