2024 NCAA Tournament Betting Strategy
Over the years I’ve developed a low-risk, high-reward approach to betting March Madness.
The general idea is to identify under-seeded teams that have a good shot of making it far in the tournament. We'll bet these teams on the moneyline each game (with a few exceptions, as we'll discuss). As long as these teams keep winning, we will keep betting them on the moneyline, rolling up both our bet and our winnings into each subsequent moneyline bet on that team until either:
- Two of our chosen teams face each other, meaning we can cash both out.
- The team makes the Elite Eight.*
*There are occasionally exceptions to this rule. If there are, they will be noted in the picks.
Using this approach, we can identify eight teams and invest a small amount on each. For this example, let's use one-quarter of a unit, or $25.
Using this $25 quarter-unit bet on eight teams, the $200 initial investment will pay off as long as at least one of our eight identified teams makes the Elite Eight. If none do, we limit our losses to $200.
However, the upside is pretty big.
First, we get to sweat eight teams and root for them, giving us plenty of interest throughout the first (and hopefully second) weekend. Even better, most of them are underdog teams. Cinderella stories, if you will. And who doesn't love a good Cinderella run?
Second, this strategy has the chance to produce some big returns.
In 2017, my analysis identified 11-seed Xavier. The Musketeers made the Elite Eight while knocking off the No. 6, No. 3 and No. 2 seeds, returning 33 times my initial $25 investment on them.
In 2018, that team was another 11-seed in Loyola Chicago. It returned about half of what Xavier did. Per my system, I cashed the Ramblers out in the Elite Eight, but Loyola continued the Cinderella story onto the Final Four.
In 2019, 5-seed Auburn was one of my teams. The Tigers also reached the Final Four. In a bit of an exception, I bet them to cover the spread in the first game, which they did, then rolled them up on the moneyline thereafter. That earned me 10 times my initial investment on them before cashing out in the Elite Eight.
There was no tournament in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, and I skipped 2021 because I felt the roster turnover made evaluations tough with players missing plenty of time throughout the year because of COVID.
In 2022, my eight teams combined for a paltry one win. That only win came in the play-in round. Certainly a disastrous year, but that's why we play the lose small, win big strategy. We limit our losses to just 2 units with the upside to win much more.
Last year, while I did have No. 8-seed Arkansas upset No. 1-seed Kansas to reach the Sweet 16, their run ended against eventual national champions Connecticut. Two other teams, No. 6 seed Creighton and No. 9 seed Florida Atlantic did reach the Elite Eight. However, because I chose to bet Creighton to cover the spread against N.C. State in the opener, that didn't count. Similarly, Florida Atlantic was primed to face Purdue in the second round, but Fairleigh Dickinson pulled off the No. 16 over No. 1 upset. That meant, in an audible, I ended up betting FAU to cover against Fairleigh Dickinson, and they unfortunately did not.
So while 2023 wasn't technically a success, the upside was certainly there, it just didn't work out.
But that's the fun part about this system. When we do lose, we limit our losses. And when it hits, it has the chance for some very nice returns.
So, how do we go about applying my Giffen Guide to March Madness for the 2024 NCAA Tournament? Let's dive in.
NCAA Tournament Elite Eight Picks
South Region
I'm starting in the South Region because it's the most unique region for me. We'll turn to the bottom half of the South first, because we have a unique situation, with one team a First Four team playing in Dayton on Wednesday night that also has double cashout potential if it faces another one of my picks from the bottom half of this region.
No. 10 Colorado Buffaloes
In the bottom half of the South Region, Colorado stands out as one of my favorite plays for this money rollover format.
I have the Buffaloes power rated more like a No. 6 seed than a No. 10 seed. So while their opening opponent, Boise St., is fairly seeded, it's down the road where the value creeps for on Colorado. In the second round, Florida may be a nominal favorite over Colorado, but my power rankings favor the Pac-12's third-place finisher in the regular season.
Finally, should Colorado make it to the second round, they are likely to face No. 2 seed Marquette, who I have rated as the worst team on the No. 2 line, even after adjusting for the recent absence of the Golden Eagles' Tyler Kolek.
If Colorado reaches the Sweet 16, we can cash out as they'll have won the requisite three games, or decide if we want to roll it over one more game for fun knowing they could face an overseeded No. 3 seed Kentucky or No. 6 seed Texas Tech, or even a fairly seeded but inferior N.C. State team.
In the Sweet 16, Creighton faces an Arizona team that should be a high No. 3 seed rather than a No. 2 seed by my power ratings. The market will once again give us plus-money on the Bluejays, while I have this as a very close game by my power ratings.
How to Play: Moneyline to the Sweet 16, decide on continuing further after that.
No. 11 N.C. State Wolfpack
In a similar vein, the N.C. State Wolfpack get a relatively nice path to the Sweet 16, or even the Elite Eight thanks to a fully overseeded projected pathway with Texas Tech, Kentucky and Marquette.
The Wolfpack just ran through a gauntlet of Duke, Virginia and North Carolina to win the ACC title. There's no reason they can't compete with all of these teams in their path.
Right now the Wolfpack are catching up to 5.5 points against Texas Tech. I make closer to a four-point spread so there's definitely value on the moneyline by my metrics.
How to Play: Moneyline to the Elite Eight if they don't face Colorado in the Sweet 16 (if they do, see rule 1).
No. 8 Nebraska Cornhuskers
I have 8-seed Nebraska power rated more like a No. 7 seed, while I have Texas A&M and Nevada essentially tied for the worst No. 9 seeded team. Thus, I'll back the Huskers to face No. 1 seed Houston.
I think Nebraska can give slow-paced Houston a run for their money, especially because the Huskers takes a ton of 3-pointers, while both teams yield 3-point attempts at high rates, adding some extra variance. That's the perfect recipe for an upset of a 1-seed as both times a 16 seed (let alone a No. 8 seed) upset a top-seeded team 3-pointers on both sides were a massive factor.
Should Nebraska pull off the massive upset, they have a tough game most likely against Duke who I rate more like a No. 3 seed, but there's certainly a nonzero chance they face any of the teams from Duke's sub-regional.
How to Play: Moneyline to the Elite Eight
Midwest Region
I'm tempted to take Samford, Gonzaga, or TCU from the top half of the region, but I'm not convinced enough that this is the spot to target, so I'm passing on the upper half of the Midwest Region.
No. 6 South Carolina Gamecocks
I originally had Oregon penciled in here, and don't mind if you'd rather go in that direction. I do have Oregon just one spot behind South Carolina making this game a virtual coin flip meaning the favored Gamecocks aren't really a first-round value.
But it's the second round I'm targeting here should we win the coin flip.
I don't think Oregon's neutral pace and poor shooting defense, while not eliminating the 3-pointer, matches up well against Creighton.
South Carolina, on the other hand, presents a very interesting matchup for Creighton. The 'Cocks play at the ninth-slowest pace in the nation and also allow 3-point attempts at the 25th-lowest rate nationally while attempting their own 3s at the 85th-highest rate.
Slowing it down against a favored Creighton team will keep this game closer, and allow 3-point variance to come into play more. By taking away what Creighton loves to do (shoot the 3-ball) while defending the rim well, and adding your own 3-point variance offensively, the recipe for an upset is there.
From there, South Carolina would be in line for a third meeting with SEC foe Tennessee. The two teams split the regular season meetings.
How to Play: Moneyline to the Elite Eight
West Region
No. 9 Michigan St. Spartans
Michigan State is a much better team than their 8-seed implies, as I have them power-ranked more like a borderline 5/6-seed.
And while the committee did them no favors pairing them up against a difficult No. 8 seed in Mississippi State, I have the Spartans favored.
As the slower-paced and higher power-rated team than the Bulldogs, I fancy Tom Izzo's team a bit more likely to upset North Carolina in the second round.
From there, they'd get fast-paced, but erratic Alabama who much like Creighton relies on their 3-point shooting. Michigan State fouls at a low rate which will help keep Alabama's 10th-ranked free-throw shooting team off the line whereas the Bulldogs would struggle with faster pace and putting the Crimson Tide on the line too frequently.
How to Play: Moneyline to the Elite Eight or cash out vs. Grand Canyon in Sweet 16.
No. 12 Grand Canyon Antelopes
In a double-up spot in the top half of the West Region I'm rolling with my first 12/5 upset.
I love this spot for Grand Canyon against St. Mary's in the first round. In addition to St. Mary's plodding pace (fifth-slowest nationally), Grand Canyon draws fouls at the 10th-highest adjusted rate in the nation which reduced the two things that Saint Mary's does well defensively: rebounding and defending field goals.
St. Mary's also won't necessarily be powered to prevent the Antelopes from getting to the line, as the Gaels foul at a rate relatively close to the national average.
On the flip side, the fact that Grand Canyon themselves foul at a relatively high rate hurts St. Mary's on the offensive glass and puts the Gaels at the line where they fare 40th-worst in FT%.
From there, Grand Canyon gets that same erratic Alabama team that just needs to go cold from the outside, then ideally faces Michigan State where we can cash both out. Otherwise, the likely face an overseeded UNC Tar Heel team.
How to Play: Moneyline to the Elite Eight or cash out against Michigan State in Sweet 16
No. 11 New Mexico Lobos
The Lobos are actually favored over Clemson which is in line with my power rankings. Pace is a major factor here as New Mexico pushes pace and is favored against the neutral-paced Tigers.
In the next round, it helps that with New Mexico as an underdog to Baylor, the Bears are on the slower side which reduces the per-possession efficiency edge Baylor has. Baylor is also a touch overseeded, as I have them as a borderline No. 4 or 5 seed instead of a No. 3 seed.
From there, Arizona is going to be a tough out, but we'll worry about that if it gets to it. There's always a chance Arizona is upset before then.
How to Play: Moneyline to the Elite Eight
East Region
I'm avoiding the bottom half of the East Region because while I have BYU rated closer to a No. 4 or 5-seed, I think the spread is too high against Duquesne and I don't really fancy BYU against solid 2- and 3- seeds in Iowa State and Illinois.
Thus, I'll turn to an underseeded team in the top half of the region.
No. 4 Auburn Tigers
I love Auburn as they power rate as the fourth 1-seed in my power ratings, yet are stuck with a No. 4 seed thanks to a 36-day stretch that saw them lose five of their seven games.
Since then, Auburn has won by an average of 18.8 points per game against opponents, on average, much tougher than Yale.
That's why we'll start by taking Auburn to cover the 12.5-point spread against Yale as I have this closer to 13.5, plus I like the matchup here. While the Bulldogs do slow it down a bit, they are a relatively poor free-throw shooting team negating Auburn's one weakness which is their incredibly high foul rate.
From there, Auburn should be able to handle San Diego State in a game where we'll get much better odds to play the moneyline. The Aztecs have lost half of their 20 top-100 KenPom location-adjusted games this year.
From there, it's a likely showdown with No. 1 overall seed UConn.
The Huskies slower pace should help Auburn keep it close, and we'll certainly get a nice plus-money price on the moneyline here.
How to Play: Bet against the spread in the first round, moneyline to Elite Eight after that
