Once the bracket is revealed in the early evening of Selection Sunday, most of the conversation immediately turns to the four regions, dark horses, Final Four picks, etc.
There is, however, a dark side to this glorious Sunday. Every year, there are a handful of teams that believe they did enough to warrant an at-large selection to the NCAA Tournament and ultimately do not hear their name called.
This year, that dark side was magnified more than ever.
Five different teams — NC State, Oregon, New Mexico, Duquesne and UAB — stole bids by going on surprise runs to win their respective conference tournaments.
That essentially shrunk the at-large pool by five spots in what was already a strong bubble year. As a result, there was a lot of heartache for the teams that had quality resumes that weren’t quite good enough.
These players and coaches pour their blood, sweat and tears into the college basketball season with the ultimate goal of earning a spot in the Big Dance.
Now, let's take a look at the biggest snubs from this year’s bracket. I ranked the teams from most to least deserving in my estimation. I probably could have gone 8-10 deep, but these are the five I felt got the shortest end of the stick deal.
Oklahoma Sooners
- Overall Record: 20-12
- Quad 1 Record: 4-12
- Quad 2 Record: 5-0
- NET: 46
- KenPom: 43
- NC SOS: 262
This one is a bit of a stunner, because entering Championship Week, I don’t think Oklahoma was really even looked at as a bubble team.
The Sooners appeared to be comfortably in and playing for seeding.
However, when a team drops its first Big 12 Tournament game to TCU and five bids end up getting stolen, things can change very quickly.
Still, Oklahoma was one of six teams in the entire country that went undefeated against Quadrants 2-4.
Every one of its losses came against a Quad 1 opponent, and it won 20 games playing in what many believe to be the best conference in America.
The 4-12 record against Quad 1 must have been the eyesore to the committee, and Porter Moser’s team just caught a really bad break with so many upsets in conference tournaments.
I would have taken OU over Virginia.
Indiana State Sycamores
- Overall Record: 28-6
- Quad 1 Record: 1-4
- Quad 2 Record: 4-1
- NET: 28
- KenPom: 45
- NC SOS: 320
You have to really feel for the Sycamores. At one point in early February, Indiana State was ranked inside the top 25 and lost only six times all year.
Four of those were losses to tournament teams: Alabama, Michigan State and Drake on the road, with a second loss to Drake in the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament Championship.
Other than two losses to Illinois State and Southern Illinois, the Sycamores won every game they were supposed to win and held a NET ranking inside the top 30.
Strength of schedule is likely what kept Indiana State out, which is in large part out of its control due to most power conference teams not wanting to play top mid-majors.
Yes, Josh Schertz’s team could have taken matters out of the committee’s hands by beating Drake, but with only six losses all season and a top-30 NET, it’s pretty cruel to see ISU left out.
St. John's Red Storm
- Overall Record: 20-13
- Quad 1 Record: 4-10
- Quad 2 Record: 6-2
- NET: 32
- KenPom: 25
- NC SOS: 176
Most believed that St. John’s was going dancing after it beat Seton Hall in the Big East Tournament quarterfinals.
Ironically enough, Rick Pitino’s own son, Richard, played a small part in keeping the Red Storm out of the tournament by winning the MWC Tournament and stealing a bid.
The metrics really liked St. John’s, which ranked inside the top 35 in both NET and KenPom.
This is another resume that's comfortably in the field in a normal bubble year, but this year, it wasn't quite enough.
Was it only four Quad 1 wins that kept SJU out? With really no bad losses, that has to be the only explanation for why the Johnnies are headed to the NIT.
Seton Hall Pirates
- Overall Record: 20-12
- Quad 1 Record: 5-8
- Quad 2 Record: 4-3
- NET: 67
- KenPom: 62
- NC SOS: 205
Here's yet another resume that feels like a tournament team upon initial review.
The Pirates won games over UConn and Marquette and went 13-7 in the Big East. Thirteen wins in a conference that was widely regarded as a top-three or top-four league in all of America, and the Hall still isn't dancing.
The computers didn’t like Seton Hall with it checking in at 67 and 62 in the NET and KenPom rankings, which must be the explanation for why the Pirates were left out.
You have to feel for Shaheen Holloway’s team after fighting its tail off all year and beating a lot of quality opponents.
Pitt Panthers
- Overall Record: 22-11
- Quad 1 Record: 4-6
- Quad 2 Record: 5-3
- NET: 40
- KenPom: 40
- NC SOS: 317
This is a classic example of nonconference strength of schedule costing a team a tournament bid.
The Panthers didn’t really do any damage in the noncon, playing a soft schedule that gave them minimal chances to earn quality wins. They also lost to Missouri back in November, which turned out to be a really bad loss.
That said, to the eyes, this was a team that looked very much like a top-30 team from January onward.
Jeff Capel’s team won at Duke, went 12-8 in the ACC and went to the ACC Tournament semifinals before losing a tight battle to North Carolina.
Panther fans are probably shaking their heads that a team like NC State — which it swept in the regular season — is going dancing and they aren’t. Scheduling matters.
