We've finally reached the moment all college basketball fans have been dreaming about since last April: Selection Sunday.
It's time for the field of 68, and we have you covered with live reaction, instant betting analysis, predictions and more ahead of the 2024 NCAA tournament tip-off.
First Four
(16) Montana State vs. (16) Grambling State
Grambling State is participating in the NCAA Tournament for the first time in program history, while Montana State is appearing in its third straight tournament.
But under first-year head coach Matt Logie, the Bobcats' run will look different this season.
The Bobcats were an inferno in the second half of all three Big Sky tournament games, making every perimeter shot. I’m not sure you can count on Montana State going ballistic again, but the Cats shoot it well all year — 36% from deep, to be exact.
Starting point guard Robert Ford III is a speedy guard who impacts the game in various ways. Not only is he lightning quick, but he averaged 15.9 points, 7.6 rebounds, and 3.0 assists on 48% shooting and 42% from 3. Ford is just 6-foot but you wouldn’t know that from his elite rebounding.
Grambling State got hot when it mattered most, winning 11 of its final 13 games in SWAC play. The Tigers amped up the defensive pressure, causing hardships for opposing SWAC conference tourney opponents. Two of the three opponents tallied fewer than 1.000 PPP, and Texas Southern only cracked 1.03 PPP.
Coach Jackson needs scoring from his big three, Jourdan Smith, Kintavious Dozier and Tramichael Moton. All three average double-digit points, and Smith paced all scorers with 20 in the conference title showdown.
The only way Grambling State wins is if defensive pressure alters the gorgeous sets drawn up by Coach Logie. Forcing turnovers is critical for GSU, as the team boasts a 19% defensive turnover rate.
That’s where the edge lies for Grambling.
Otherwise, it’s a total hammer spot for the Bobcats, who are more talented and have a play style that tailored to winning in March.
(11) Boise State vs. (11) Colorado
Talk about just a tremendous lack of feel from the NCAA selection committee, placing Boise State in Dayton for the four despite ranking top-40 in the KenPom and NET rankings.
Either way, the Broncos face the Colorado Buffaloes, and the winner plays the Florida Gators.
Guard play is the name of the game in March, and Boise State lacks guards.
Leon Rice quickly pulled Roddie Anderson during the Mountain West Tournament quarterfinal against New Mexico, and there aren’t many other options. Anderson struggling in this game puts a ton of pressure on Max Rice to play the point guard position. He’s more of a shooter, so handling the ball isn’t ideal for him.
The Broncos typically punish teams on the glass, but Colorado is just as good on the glass. There’s no lean on either side there.
The biggest matchup advantage is shooting, as Colorado is among the best shooting teams in the tourney at 39% from 3, compared to Boise at 34%.
Buffs guard KJ Simpson had an awesome year, boasting improved efficiency of 47% shooting, 45% from 3 and 87% from the line. Simpson is one of the best guards in America and should carve up Boise’s defense with his explosiveness.
Additionally, Boise's interior offense is what makes it so dynamic. Tyson Degenhart and O’Mar Stanley are as good of a one-two punch as the tournament offers in the frontcourt.
If Boise’s two bigs can get Colorado big man Eddie Lampkin into foul trouble, it exploits Colorado’s biggest weakness: depth. If Colorado’s depth is exposed, Boise State could sneak out the win.
I’m banking on guard play winning out here, and Colorado’s guard play is flat-out better.
Pick: Colorado
(16) Howard vs. (16) Wagner
The 16-vs-16 seed matchup in the first four is always one of my favorite aspects of the NCAA Tournament. Some stand-alone screen time for a pair of conference champions never hurts.
This time, the Howard Bison from the MEAC face the Wagner Seahawks from the NEC.
Howard cobbled together three huge wins in the MEAC tournament against all odds — the Bison had just seven available players for the three-game set. I’m unsure if the status of Shy Odom, Dom Campbell or Jelani Williams changed, but I’m operating as if they won’t play.
Howard and Wagner play contrasting styles.
The Seahawks' defense is significantly better (171st nationally in defensive efficiency) than Howard's (334th).
On the contrary, Howard’s offense is significantly better (192nd nationally in offensive efficiency) than Wagner’s (334th).
So, what’s the key here?
Shooting.
The Bison attempt 3s on 38% of field goal attempts, connecting on 39.7% (17th nationally.) If the shot doesn’t fall, Howard grabs an offensive rebound on 33% of misses.
That said, Wagner typically excels at containing 3’s, as opponents shoot only 29% from deep against them.
I’m expecting big scoring performances from big man Seth Towns and sharpshooting lefty Marcus Dockery to break Wagner’s trend of stopping shooters. Both came up huge in Howard’s miraculous MEAC run, so look for more of the same excellence here.
The Seahawks' offense is just a brutal watch. It carved up Merrimack’s zone in the NEC title game, but it’s been a brutal season in the scoring department.
I think it finally comes back to haunt them.
Rolling Bison to move on.
(11) Virginia vs. (11) Colorado State
Regarding NCAA selection committee conspiracy theories, one can safely be put to rest.
The committee doesn’t care to set up the “First Four” to maximize entertainment value. Consequently, we will be forced to tune in to Virginia vs Colorado St. instead of a potential St. John’s vs Wake Forest matchup.
If you still choose to watch this one (if you’re reading this, I’m guessing you will), here are some quick thoughts:
It was surprising to see Colorado St. slated to face off in Dayton. Most considered the Rams (and Boise St., for that matter) safely in the field. The Rams are a well-rounded team that will be content to play at Virginia’s desired sluggish pace.
The defensive improvement of Niko Medved’s team this year is likely why they won eleven more games than last season. Nique Clifford, a Colorado transfer, and newcomers Joel Scott and Rashaan Mbemba have significantly helped the Rams’ rim protection and rebounding.
Scott is a terrific offensive rebounder who excelled in that respect last year at the NCAA D-II level. Medved sought Scott’s services in the offseason after Scott was named a D-II All-American at Black Hills St. He should be an annoyance to Virginia on the offensive glass against their pack-line defensive approach.
This game should be ugly. Even the uniform combination between the two teams won’t have much pop.
All jokes aside, the first team to reach 60 likely wins in Dayton.
Despite the low total, I still lean Under in this game with two unfamiliar opponents. And, give me the Rams – who will certainly be “America’s Team” given all of the Virginia hate online.
East Region
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Connecticut’s region could offer a tough test for the reigning champs.
Second-seed Iowa State just won a power conference tournament championship in a laugher over big, bad Houston. The Cyclones went 11-2 down the stretch in the brutal Big 12.
Third-seed Illinois is also a power conference tournament champion and, when Terrence Shannon Jr. is in the lineup, has looked the part of a Final Four-caliber team.
Auburn ranks in the top 10 on both ends of the floor by KenPom’s metrics. San Diego State won the Mountain West regular season and has players with Final Four experience, as does 8-seed FAU.
BYU’s love of the 3-pointer, and its scorching ability to hit those shots, makes the Cougars deadly as they have a higher ceiling than the typical 6-seed.
UConn’s the best team here, comfortably, though that doesn’t offer any guarantees with the level of challengers lurking.
(1) UConn vs. (16) Stetson
Want a fun bet for the first round? How about Stetson “First to 15.” The Hatters can shoot the crap out of the ball and have terrific guards led by Stephan Swenson and Jalen Blackmon.
Unfortunately, that 15 points might be all the Hatters get the rest of the game. UConn will murder them inside and on the glass.
Stetson big man Aubin Gateretse has his work cut out for him.
UConn’s hundreds of weapons will decimate the nation’s 342nd-best defense. Stetson just doesn’t have the physicality or toughness to hang with this Huskies team.
(8) FAU vs. (9) Northwestern
Boo Buie will get a shot at one of the weaker defenses in the 8 vs. 9 game.
The story of this game will be Matt Nicholson’s status – he’s dealing with a foot injury. Northwestern has dealt with a litany of injuries this season, including a season-ending knee injury to Ty Berry and a minor ankle injury to Ryan Langborg.
Vlad Goldin will loom large on the other end of the floor because of his size. Northwestern also fouls often, so he could be at the line pretty often.
3-point shooting will be an issue for both teams on defense. Both can shoot from outside, and neither has a tremendous perimeter defense.
With Nicholson’s status in question, the Wildcats will not have much down low. FAU can score more inside the perimeter.
If Northwestern is going to win, Nicholson needs to be healthy, or Langborg and Buie need to hit more 3s than the FAU backcourt.
Taking FAU to -3 seems reasonable at open.
(5) San Diego State vs. (12) UAB
The UAB Blazers willed themselves into the NCAA Tournament after an unlikely Conference USA Championship title.
This game is purely offense against defense. San Diego State thrives on the defensive end, and UAB ranks in the top 60 in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency.
The issue here for UAB will be the defensive glass. Jaedon Ledee grabs a ton of offensive rebounds in general and will take advantage of a team that struggled against defending putbacks.
UAB will need to get to the free-throw line and get the Aztecs in foul trouble, as it has shown it can do.
San Diego State is much more experienced in the postseason, and UAB’s defense will regress against a tougher team — unless it can get to the line often and make shots on the interior.
(4) Auburn vs. (13) Yale
After Yale survived and earned the Ivy League’s automatic bid, I was eager to see the Bulldogs’ draw, knowing they would be a feisty double-digit seed.
In fact, the Ivy League, in general, has been elite as a group of giant killers. Of the last 11 Ivy League teams to make the tourney, five won their first-round game, two made the Sweet 16, and three more lost by five or fewer points.
Is this the right matchup for a Yale win? I’m skeptical. Auburn ranks top-10 on both ends of the floor in efficiency, relying on one of the most intense, fearsome defenses in college basketball. If there’s a flaw, it’s the Tigers’ over-aggression, leading to 24 free-throw attempts per game.
Yale’s veteran-laden roster may be patient enough to avoid mistakes, ranking top-20 in the nation in turnover rate, though the Bulldogs are not regulars at the charity stripe. Yale ranks 332nd in free-throw rate nationally.
(6) BYU vs. (11) Duquesne
After watching Duquesne wrestle through an ugly Atlantic 10 title game win over VCU, I wasn’t necessarily high on the Dukes’ chances to win a first-round game in the NCAA Tournament. After seeing this matchup against BYU come up in the bracket, I feel even worse about the possibility of a Duquesne win. The seed number is a touch high for a team with just one win over a KenPom top-60 team all season (the upset of Dayton on Thursday).
Making matters worse, Duquesne plays a slow, grinding style and forces the opposition to rely on jump shots. If there’s any team comfortable living with jump shots, it’s BYU. The Cougars were one of just two teams to take more than half of their field goals from beyond the arc, hoisting more than 32 triples per game.
There’s a world where BYU takes all the 3s it wants and goes cold, opening the door for the Dukes. I’m doubtful that happens, given the shooting luck at play.
BYU is due for a hot night after making just 31% over its last seven games. Duquesne, meanwhile, faced sub-30% shooting in conference play and faced just one opponent that hit over 32% in four games last week.
(3) Illinois vs. (14) Morehead State
Styles clash in this opening-round battle.
Illinois has become a force in transition this year, riding the speed and downhill playmaking of Terrence Shannon to become one of the country’s best offenses.
The underdog Eagles will slow this game to a crawl, though — a common trend for them in the OVC, one of the country’s fastest leagues. Their “zig while the others zag” style has been a boon, with young coaching star Preston Spradlin serving as a constant winner over the past few seasons.
Containing Marcus Domask in the mid-post is another vital component for competing against Illinois. Morehead has a couple of bigger wings and guards who can battle him there; the Illini cannot simply pick on a tiny guard in mismatches.
Similar to Illinois’ near-loss against Chattanooga two years ago in a 5/12 matchup, this should turn into a slog. Morehead State has the size and athleticism to compete for 40 minutes.
Pick: Morehead State +13.5
(7) Washington State vs. (10) Drake
Drake is a draw no power team wanted to see. This team is old, experienced, and led by one of the best players in the country — not just mid-majors — in Tucker DeVries.
The Bulldogs might close a betting favorite and have proven they can beat high-level competition by blasting Nevada and taking down Indiana State twice.
Drake is the best defensive rebounding team in the country, very key against a Wazzu team that usually has an edge on the offensive glass with their elite size.
Myles Rice is Wazzu’s stud guard, but Drake has plenty of “Bulldogs” to throw at him and make him uncomfortable.
(2) Iowa State vs. (15) South Dakota State
Iowa State head coach TJ Otzelberger gets dealt his former program in the first round, slotted in a 2-15 matchup when many thought the Cyclones did enough to steal the final top seed.
That’s a big distinction given the delta in 15 seeds that have pulled the upset versus just two 16 seeds to ever have done so. Since 2005, 15-seeds have a modestly better record ATS in first-round games (36-33) versus the 16-seeds (36-35-1).
This particular matchup might allow the Jackrabbits to hang around.
They allow the second-highest rate of 3-point attempts in the country, though that’s not how Iowa State beats its opponents. The Cyclones ranked second-to-last in the Big 12 in percentage of points from beyond the arc.
Narratively, Iowa State is receiving a lot of attention as a hot Final Four pick after it smoked Houston. Generally, those types of things boomerang. Even if not all the way to where the Jacks pull the upset, a close game — even for the first half — would not surprise me.
South Region
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I can’t really remember a bracket with more question marks and variability than this South Region.
Houston starter J’Wan Roberts hobbled through the Big 12 Tournament with an injury. Marquette star Tyler Kolek has been sidelined for several weeks with an oblique issue. HIs return is expected, yet has not been confirmed. Florida big man Micah Handlogten is likely out for the postseason after a gruesome injury in Sunday’s SEC title game.
Meanwhile, Kentucky is Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde, largely due to John Calipari’s issues finding the lineup that best suits his roster. Duke has come crashing down in recent weeks. After sparking Court-Storm Gate, the Devils lost on Senior Night and in their first game of the ACC Tournament.
Every team I mentioned above has a Final Four ceiling. All have question marks in need of an answer.
Personally, I find Kentucky’s ceiling the most enticing, especially at +850 like it is at DraftKings, as of writing.
(1) Houston vs. (16) Longwood
Longwood is a team that predictive metrics like a touch better than the committee. Ranking 157th in KenPom places it tops among the 16 seeds, ahead of 15-seed Long Beach State and a few spots behind 14-seed Colgate.
With that being said, it’s not like this is a bad draw for Houston. Longwood went 6-10 in the Big South this season and, worst of all, has flaws that play right into Houston’s hands.
The Lancers rank 257th in the nation in turnover rate, plus ranked last in that stat in Big South play by turning the ball over on more than 18% of their possessions. That’s blood in the water for a Houston team that ranked in the top three in the nation in forcing turnovers, steals and blocked shots.
Houston played 11 games against teams outside KenPom’s top 100 this season. Those 11 opponents averaged 46.6 points against Houston.
A pissed-off Cougars team that just got blown out in the Big 12 title game will smother Longwood. Look for Houston to not just cover, but for a devilishly low team total for the Lancers.
(8) Nebraska vs. (9) Texas A&M
As well as the Cornhuskers have played recently, Texas A&M is peaking at the right time.
Despite a blown 20-point lead in the SEC Semi-Finals, the Aggies are finally starting to hit some 3s.
The Aggies were among the nation’s worst 3-point shooting teams but broke through in the conference tournament.
Wade Taylor IV is among the sport’s best guards who can carry the Aggies on a Sweet 16 run.
The most significant discrepancy in the game is the battle on the boards. Nebraska ranks outside the top 200 in offensive and defensive rebounding rate, while the Aggies obliterate the boards, specifically on offense.
The Aggies are the nation’s best offensive rebounding team and have enough physicality to outmatch the Huskers.
I can’t believe we’re catching three with the Aggies. It’s my favorite early NCAA Tournament bet.
(5) Wisconsin vs. (12) James Madison
The Wisconsin Badgers slugged it out with Illinois in the Big Ten title game and fell short, but they still look like the team we all saw earlier in the season. AJ Storr and Chucky Hepburn were key ingredients to the success of the Badgers and will be here.
James Madison opened the season with a shocking upset over Michigan State. Despite resting in the Sun Belt, the Dukes are surprisingly balanced, ranking in the top 80 nationally in offensive and defensive efficiency.
In addition, the Dukes shoot well from deep (over 36%), while the Badgers allow opponents to hit over 37% from outside.
Wisconsin must win the rebounding battle, as JMU is not an easy matchup.
Neither team turns the ball over, so keeping the game in the halfcourt could benefit the Badgers' slow pace.
JMU has one of the best 3-point defenses in the country. If the Dukes hit 3s early, they could pull off the upset.
(4) Duke vs. (13) Vermont
Unfortunately, as The Action Network’s resident Catamount superfan, I really wanted them to draw Kentucky in the first round – an up-tempo, smaller, poor-defensive team that would likely be forced to play uncomfortably in the half-court.
Instead, the Cats will battle Duke, which is also comfortable in lower-possession games, but wins behind Kyle Filipowski’s elite hard- and short-roll game.
And that’s a problem against Vermont, which boasts an elite interior defense but an unfortunately mediocre ball-screen coverage defense. Ileri Ayo-Faleye is athletic enough to match up with Filipowski, but Matt Veretto (who might not be healthy) and Nick Fiorillo aren’t.
Meanwhile, Duke is a half-decent 3-point defense – fourth in the ACC in 3-point rate and Open 3 Rate allowed – with a monstrous athletic advantage in the backcourt. I don’t see how TJ Long, Aaron Deloney and Shamir Bogues run the Cats’ five-out motion against Jeremy Roach, Jared McCain or Tyrese Proctor.
The Devils boast a rock-solid post-up defense but are somewhat vulnerable against the interior screen-and-roll game, which the Cats will use if perimeter shots aren’t there. Unfortunately, these Catamounts don’t have a natural post scorer like past teams (Anthony Lamb, Ryan Davis), so easy buckets aren’t there, partially explaining Vermont’s inconsistent, often stagnant offense.
Should be a low-scoring, low-possession game, so points are at a premium, technically advantageous to Vermont.
But I ultimately don’t love this matchup for my beloved Catamounts.
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(6) Texas Tech vs. (11) NC State
A Grant McCasland team typically screams slow pace and defense.
In his first year at Texas Tech, though, McCasland has been less stringent to those tenets.
These Red Raiders are far more offensively inclined. They feature a cadre of deadeye shooters, including the sharp-shooting backcourt of Pop Isaacs and Joe Toussaint. With their high skill level, they can spread the floor and put immense pressure on defenses. Plus, matchup nightmare Darrion Williams should be fully healthy after precautionarily sitting out the Red Raiders’ Big 12 Tournament loss to Houston with an ankle tweak.
Also crucial to this handicap is the dicier health of Texas Tech center Warren Washington. He’s missed eight of the last nine games (only 13 ineffective minutes in the ninth) with a foot injury, wearing a boot on the bench. The Red Raiders hope he can play in the tourney opener, but he’s unlikely to be 100%.
Against an NC State team that plays through DJ Burns in the post, Texas Tech needs Washington. If TTU cannot contain Burns one-on-one, the big man’s pinpoint passing will create open jumpers and opportunities to drive against closeouts. Washington is also the Red Raiders’ best rim protector.
Tempo is more of a question than efficiency. However, the Wolfpack love to run the floor under Kevin Keatts, and this McCasland squad has shown a higher willingness to push than past versions.
The Pick: Over 145.5
(3) Kentucky vs. (14) Oakland
I’m wondering what the buzz around Lexington is heading into the NCAA Tournament. The Wildcats have all but failed over the last few seasons. If it weren’t for his name alone, Coach Cal would be on the hot seat if he doesn’t reach the Elite Eight.
Just recently, Kentucky disappointed once again in a tournament setting. The Wildcats fell to Texas A&M as 8-point favorites in the SEC Tournament. This team is very young and surely vulnerable against a team that has nothing to lose.
Oakland makes the tournament by way of winning the Horizon League Tournament. Oakland is an experienced team with a very experienced coach. Greg Kampe is the longest-tenured coach in the entire nation and has seen a ton.
Oakland knows Kentucky will try and run on it, which the Cats do against every opponent they face. Oakland can score, but if it decides to get into a track meet with Kentucky, consider it cooked.
Look for Oakland to try and set the pace on the offensive end while limiting Kentucky in transition. Oakland has an elite scorer in Rocket Watts. If he can score at the end of the shot clock on a regular basis, these young Wildcats will be in trouble.
(7) Florida vs. (10) Boise State/Colorado
I quite like these Gators, who chomped to an SEC Tournament final appearance behind a quick-strike offense, relentless offensive rebounding and on-ball backcourt creation.
The backcourt of Walter Clayton, Zyon Pullin and Will Richard can beat anyone off the bounce, while Tyrese Samuel presents interesting matchup issues in the frontcourt.
The Micah Handlogten injury is crucial to watch out for, although I doubt we'll see him for the remainder of the year — his crash against Auburn looked very bad.
So, how do teams stop Florida?
Transition denial, board cleaning and on-ball defense.
Boise State and Colorado have poor ball-screen coverage and transition defenses. Yikes.
However, both are elite defensive rebounding teams, so that’s a plus.
Both squads create primarily on the interior, with Boise State leveraging positional size to post up anywhere on the court, while Colorado is primarily a cut-and-post offense.
Unfortunately for the eventual opponent, Florida is the SEC’s top defense against cutters (1.07 PPP allowed) and ranks above the D-I average in post-up PPP allowed (.85 PPP allowed, 60th percentile).
Tough matchup for whichever First Four team gets through.
(2) Marquette vs. (15) Western Kentucky
The availability of Marquette guard Tyler Kolek (oblique) is what this matchup comes down to. Will he play? If so, how effective can he be?
Marquette’s been able to pick up the pieces without its star maestro of late. However, the margin for error is rail thin as the bench dwindles for head coach Shaka Smart. This Marquette rendition is scariest when its entire guard brigade is intact as the continuous ball pressure and penetration tends to wear opponents down.
However, even without Kolek and the usual depth, the Golden Eagles’ offense could have a field day against the Hilltoppers. While talented and well coached, Western Kentucky is highly unproven against the big boys. According to KenPom, Louisiana Tech is the only top-100 team Western Kentucky played this season.
This feels like a game that sails into the 160s – or beyond – but it may be worth waiting to see if Kolek plays. Marquette’s been reluctant to push as aggressively without Kolek, but this game shapes up to be an open-floor feeding frenzy, which is why I’m looking at the over at anything up to 160.
Midwest Region
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Purdue has to feel good about its draw, considering the state of some of the higher-seeded teams the Boilers could face in the coming rounds of this tournament if they advance.
Kansas is in shambles, having fallen apart down the stretch and catching the injury bug. Unless good news comes in quickly for Hunter Dickinson, it would be shocking for the Jayhawks to find the second weekend.
Meanwhile, Gonzaga is a scary team in theory, with eight straight trips to the Sweet 16, though this five-seed feels like a gift. ESPN’s Joe Lunardi, for instance, had the Zags on the seven line.
At the bottom of the region, we find a Tennessee team we last saw getting housed by Mississippi State in the SEC Tournament and a Creighton team that is so 3-point dependent that its advancement in this tournament feels like a shaky proposition.
The Boilermakers aren’t a lock to win the Midwest – nobody in March is – yet they probably feel like they can roll through this region.
(1) Purdue vs. (16) Montana State/Grambling State
If you’re a Purdue fan — or hold a Boilermakers futures ticket — and are terrified of the worst-case scenario popping up for a second season in a row, which team should you be rooting for in this First Four matchup?
If the Fairleigh Dickinson game plan of chaotic pressure defense proves as the way to rattle Purdue’s young guards before Zach Edey can topple you, Grambling has a much better chance to replicate that look.
The Tigers rank in the top 60 in turnover rate and steal rate defensively and, unlike FDU, have a 6-foot-11 center to wrestle with Edey.
Montana State’s path to scaring Purdue would come from beyond the arc, where the Bobcats led the Big Sky in shooting percentage. Realistically, though, are the Big Ten regular-season champs afraid of being outshot by a team that lost to NAIA Rocky Mountain College?
Lightning doesn’t strike twice, and a 16-seed certainly won’t sneak up on the Boilers this season.
(8) Utah State vs. (9) TCU
The Mountain West’s struggles in the NCAA Tournament are well documented, and TCU is not a team you want to face in this setting. The Horned Frogs are extremely physical and are sure to beat up the Aggies.
Great Osobor could be an issue for the TCU frontline, but it’s seen plenty of elite big men in the Big 12 and should be well prepared.
TCU will be the best non-MWC opponent USU has faced all season, and the Aggies won’t have the luxury of one of the best home-court advantages in the country.
Look for TCU to wreak havoc on USU ball handlers and cover the spread.
(5) Gonzaga vs. (12) McNeese State
The McNeese Cowboys might be the best “underrated” team in the country. Head coach Will Wade has an absolutely loaded team out of the Southland Conference. They ranked 60th in KenPom as the numbers love a team that can hit threes and not turn the ball over.
Gonzaga has atrocious 3-point defense — bad news against a Cowboys team that shoots over 39% from deep. The Bulldogs, meanwhile, shoot a little over 35% from deep but don’t take as many shots from outside.
Now, McNeese allows a considerable number of 3-point chances, so the Bulldogs have a chance if they take – and make – their open looks. However, Gonzaga may have the worst draw out of all of the 5-seeds in the entire bracket because Shahada Wells and McNeese are going to be a problem.
(4) Kansas vs. (13) Samford
Kansas couldn’t be in a worse spot going into the NCAA Tournament, as Hunter Dickinson and Kevin McCullar are dealing with injuries – both could be out.
Samford is no joke. The Bulldogs can hit 3s and do so on extreme volume. Dajuan Harris and Johnny Furphy must contend with six Bulldogs who shoot over 38% from three-point land.
Kansas has the resume, and waiting for the news about its top two players is a wise choice. When healthy, this team beat Houston, UConn, and Baylor.
If these guys are hurt, Kansas is going to struggle mightily.
Kansas can’t guard the perimeter, and the Jayhawks will shoot more 3s without Dickinson in the lineup. Dickinson would be crucial in this matchup, as Samford is short and does not rebound well. If healthy, he will kill the Bulldogs on the glass.
Size will be an issue for Samford, but the Bulldogs can win if Kansas is short-handed.
(6) South Carolina vs. (11) Oregon
The Jermaine Couisnard revenge game. Oregon sneaks into the 11-seed after winning the PAC 12 auto-bid and faces a surprise team in South Carolina from the SEC.
In this matchup, I took a close look at Oregon’s guard play strength compared to South Carolina. The Ducks’ duo of Jackson Shelstad and Couisnard could easily combine for 40-plus points. In comparison, the Gamecocks’ Meechie Johnson and Ta’Lon Cooper don’t create as much pop.
The Gamecocks attempt 3s on 41% of their field-goal attempts. Making these shots will be key as their offense plays at one of the slowest tempos (354th).
Oregon’s defense was strong in the Pac 12 tourney, holding all three of its opponents under 70 points, including 59 to Arizona. The Ducks have the ability to alter their pace based on the strength of their opponent — in this game, playing quicker would be beneficial.
Getting the ball inside to N’Faly Dante has proven to be a successful strategy. He went off for 25 points on 12-for-12 shooting against Colorado. South Carolina could struggle to stop the 6-foot-11, 230-pound phenom.
The opening line is closer than you’d expect from a 6 vs. 11 matchup with South Carolina favored by just 1.5 points. I’m backing the Ducks here – it feels like an outstanding spot for a surging team.
(3) Creighton vs. (14) Akron
We have a beautiful 3-14 matchup, as these two teams are extremely volatile.
Creighton is among the nation’s best offenses. The Bluejays can get it done inside the paint with big man Ryan Kalkbrenner, and they can score from deep behind the red-hot Baylor Scheierman.
Akron had an extremely up-and-down end to the season. It had the MAC regular-season title in its hands and absolutely lost it with very ugly defeats.
It dealt with plenty of adversity in the MAC Tournament as well. There were a few moments where the Zips had to come up with a run to get by some inferior opponents. As always, they leaned on talented big man Enrique Freeman to get the job done.
The strength of this Akron team is defense. That will be extremely important because of how solid Creighton is on offense.
If the Zips want to pull off this upset, they will need to slow down the pace. If the Jays start running in transition and hitting their patented corner 3s, this will be a long day for Akron.
Creighton is a very volatile team and can get ahead of itself from time to time. So, it needs to ensure the focus is on Akron, which has the defensive prowess to slow the Jays down.
(7) Texas vs. (10) Virginia/Colorado State
The Texas Longhorns will await the winner of Colorado State/Virginia in Dayton. I think most people want Colorado State to win the First Four matchup, so I think that’s what we’ll see.
Texas finished .500 in Big 12 play, which doesn’t seem great on the surface, but it’s the best conference in America. Coming out with an even split is solid all things considered.
Rodney Terry led the Horns to a fairly successful season — particularly on the offensive end. Texas ranks 19th in Offensive Efficiency, but much of the scoring is led by two players — Max Abmas and Dylan Disu.
The two stars combine for over 33 points per game. Abmas is already a March legend from his days at Oral Roberts and will look to add to the lore. Texas needs scoring from Abmas in this one.
On the other end, I think Texas is better than the efficiency numbers Indicate. Sitting at 61st in Defensive Efficiency isn’t great, but Texas has been stung by opponents catching fire from 3.
Some positive regression could favor Texas, since it’s already dominant at confusing the interior. Opponents shoot just 47% from 2-point range, and Terry inserting Chendall Weaver into the starting lineup only increases Texas’s intensity.
In this hypothetical matchup, the Horns will need to slow down the P&R-heavy Colorado State offense. Even Niko Medved said last week, sometimes he just rolls the ball out and let’s his guys play.
While Isaiah Stevens is phenomenal, the Rams don’t have enough help around him. That changes if Nique Clifford and Jalen Lake consistently hit shots from downtown.
The Rams shoot only 33% from deep this year, compared to an elite 57% from 2-point range. Medved needs to craft up a plan to free up shooters if the Rams can pull off the first-round upset.
(2) Tennessee vs. (15) Saint Peter's
Tennessee got crushed in the SEC Tournament quarterfinals by Mississippi State, but the Volunteers will bounce back here in a big way.
Saint Peter’s was everyone’s darling two years ago, and it’s nice to see them in the NCAA Tournament again. That said, Dalton Knecht and the Vols will likely play their way to a Sweet 16 appearance with this draw.
The Peacocks have a tough defense, but they rank horribly on offense (305th in efficiency). Inside, Saint Peter’s will have issues as they shoot just a touch over 42%. Tennessee shoots a lot of 3s, but can defend inside and out. There are very few areas where the Peacocks could excel offensively.
Tennessee might play a bit more slowly in this contest, but it should advance in a rout.
West Region
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North Carolina steals the final top seed, somewhat acting as a co-favorite for this region with an Arizona team that was in the mix for a 1-seed until the very end.
DraftKings actually has the Wildcats with shorter odds to reach the Final Four than the Heels, with a huge drop off to the rest of the region.
More than doubling your money on a top seed (+235 for UNC) isn’t a bad call, though if there’s a region that could swing into chaos, it might be the West.
If that happens, which longshot could survive the fire and find its way to Phoenix? I’m taking a tiny flyer on the Dayton Flyers, a team that shoots over 40% from beyond the arc on a ton of volume.
Four hot games, and there’s a pathway that far exceeds the price you’ll pay for this 7-seed (60-1 at DraftKings right now).
(1) UNC vs. (16) Howard/Wagner
North Carolina has made great strides after missing last year’s tournament. This team is good; don’t let a weak ACC and a loss in the ACC title game fool you.
UNC maintains a top-25 offense and defense, per KenPom. It has the ingredients for a run and have a decent road to the Sweet 16.
RJ Davis and Harrison Ingram will be key ingredients for the Tar Heels, who should torch the winner of Howard vs. Wagner.
Howard suffered 16 losses this season and is one of the worst defensive teams in the country. Wagner lost 15 games and has one of the worst offenses in the country.
UNC is much more balanced, so a landslide win in its first tournament game would not be out of question. Armando Bacot, Davis and others were crucial to a championship run in 2022. They could do the very same in this region.
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(8) Mississippi State vs. (9) Michigan State
Every casual college basketball fan is probably on the Spartans to win this battle of “MSUs,” especially after Clark Kellogg mentioned Tom Izzo’s winning record as a lower seed.
It’s a fun stat, but does it apply here? Since 2007, Izzo’s teams are 11-10 ATS as the lower-seeded team. In his last three first-round games as the lower seed, Izzo’s Spartans are just 1-2 straight up.
The concerning thing for Michigan State, and the reason Sparty was considered bubbly, is a lack of success away from home. Michigan State didn’t beat a single NCAA Tournament team in a game played outside the state of Michigan.
Mississippi State limped into the SEC Tournament, having dropped its final four regular-season games, though the Bulldogs should not be overlooked after routing highly seeded Tennessee in Nashville. That win could spark the mojo needed for the Bulldogs to turn this game into a rock fight and possibly advance.
(5) Saint Mary's vs. (12) Grand Canyon
If you’re looking for a potential upset in the first-round, the the No. 12 seed Grand Canyon Antelopes against the No. 5 seed Saint Mary’s Gaels could be of interest.
The Gaels lost only one game in WCC play and responded to that loss by winning the WCC title over Gonzaga. Saint Mary’s opened as a 5.5-point favorite over the WAC title-winning Lopes.
It’s just another standard year in Moraga. Randy Bennett led the Gaels to another NCAA Tournament, led by stellar guard play from WCC Player of the Year Augustas Marciulionis and shooter Aidan Mahaney.
Plus, SMC’s defense is reliable as usual, ranking 16th in defensive efficiency. That said, Bennett is playing without a full arsenal of weapons. Starting forward Joshua Jefferson is out, which means Mason Forbes will play the lion’s share of minutes next to Mitchell Saxen.
Grand Canyon boasts an abundance of talent, headed by shot-creators Tyon Grant-Foster and Ray Harrison. Harrison took a secondary role behind TGF this year and turned into a reliable floor general with an occasional sharp scoring game.
Meanwhile, Grant-Foster looks like a matchup nightmare for SMC.
The one way opponents can exploit the Gaels defense is by running before the defense gets set. Grant-Foster is terrific at pushing off the rebound — averaging over six rebounds — and driving to the hoop.
Grand Canyon is one of the best teams in college hoops at generating free throws, ranking fifth nationally in FTA/FGA, per KenPom. In comparison, Saint Mary’s defense is middle-of-the-pack in the same metric.
The Lopes' propensity for drawing fouls — plus the fact they connect on 75% of free throws — could decide the outcome.
I’m looking for Grand Canyon’s skilled creators to make play, and pull an upset at +205 on the moneyline. That’s the 12/5 upset I love.
(4) Alabama vs. (13) Charleston
If you want to bet totals, this game should feature the highest number on the board.
Charleston ranks in the top 60 nationally in tempo and played at the fastest pace in the CAA. Meanwhile, Alabama plays at a top-ten pace and the fastest in the SEC. The Tide scored 100 points nine times this season but allowed 100 points three times, all within the last month.
Both teams also rank in the top 20 in the country in 3-point rate. This game will be lightning-fast and include tons of outside shots. If you’re thinking Over, get the number early because it should skyrocket.
Does that give the Cougars a chance to hang around or upset Alabama?
Charleston is comfortable playing fast, but Alabama’s pace is another level. It will come down to which squad makes shots, which could make the Cougars a nice flyer at the right moneyline odds or make either team an intriguing live bet if they start ice cold.
(6) Clemson vs. (11) New Mexico
Only one Pitino will be coaching in this year’s NCAA Tournament.
Richard Pitino’s Lobos are fresh off a 4-for-4 run to the Mountain West Tournament winner’s circle. This marks one of multiple 6 vs. 11 matchups where the higher seed will likely close as a favorite – and rightfully so.
Clemson, on the other hand, is trending in the other direction. Evan Miya notes Clemson is one of the coldest teams in the country, easily explained by a troubling 1-3 record over its last four games.
The Tigers’ guards will be tested by the Lobos’ relentless defensive pressure and constant pursuit of the rim. Clemson would be wise to shell up its half-court defense and force New Mexico’s gunners – Jaelen House, Jamal Mashburn Jr. and Donovan Dent – to be shooters.
House and Mashburn can catch fire from distance, but their bread and butter is in the lane, where House lived against San Diego State in the MWC title game. Notably, ShotQuality admires Clemson’s ability to keep shots away from the rim on defense.
New Mexico is also stout defensively at the rim, as shown in defeating the Aztecs’ Jaedon LeDee twice this season. The Lobos’ post-up prowess on defense will be needed against PJ Hall, who poses a unique matchup challenge.
Still, the far superior athletic Lobos should overwhelm the more tactical Tigers in the “battle of the extras” (turnovers and rebounds) over the course of 40 minutes. New Mexico laying 2 or less is a play for me.
(3) Baylor vs. (14) Colgate
Colgate has become the class of the Patriot League, winning or sharing the conference regular-season title five straight times.
That has resulted in the league’s last four tournament bids prior to this year (the Raiders lost the 2020 Patriot League final, but then COVID happened). In those four previous trips, Colgate has two seven-point losses and two blowout losses, going 2-2 ATS.
This is the worst KenPom ranking of the five recent Colgate teams to hit the Big Dance, and it’s by far the worst season collectively across the Patriot League in decades.
It ranked as the 30th-best conference in the nation by KenPom — its lowest ranking since KenPom started tracking in 1997.
Five of the Patriot League’s 10 teams ranked outside KenPom’s top 315 teams. Colgate’s 14-2 record in the league was not domination, but repeatedly avoiding disasters.
With Colgate being younger and a step slower than it has been in past years, this is not the time to expect it to compete or steal a win.
The March Madness lover in me would love to be proven wrong, but Baylor should be too much for Colgate right from the tip.
(7) Dayton vs. (10) Nevada
Look for a slow-paced slog in this opening-round battle in Salt Lake City.
Both teams rank outside the top 200 in adjusted tempo, per KenPom, with Dayton settling down in the depths at 337th. Neither looks to push in transition frequently.
For Dayton, that’s especially exacerbated by a lack of depth.
With starting point guard Malachi Smith out for the season since November, the Flyers essentially go six deep, relying heavily on a few key scorers and playing through DaRon Holmes II in the post.
That could be difficult against Nevada’s jumbo lineup.
The Wolf Pack play a supersized backcourt with 6-foot-6 Kenan Blackshear at point guard, and center K.J. Hymes is a fantastic individual defender with the foot speed to track Holmes to the perimeter.
The concern here is Nevada’s compact defensive shell against Dayton’s 3-point shooting. Steve Alford’s defense ranks 299th nationally in 3-point rate allowed, and Dayton ranks third in 3-point percentage. Alford’s scouting report should emphasize running foes off the line, but that’s outside the typical stylistic footprint.
Still, between the likely half-court pace and the size of Nevada, I expect a lower-scoring game.
The Pick: Under 138.5
(2) Arizona vs. (15) Long Beach State
It’s often impossible to stop Tommy Lloyd’s up-tempo rim-running offense, especially when Caleb Love is running while Oumar Ballo is posting.
It’s even tougher when you’re a mid-major squad at a major athletic disadvantage.
And it’s even more challenging when you’re a 49er, given they grade well below average in transition PPP allowed (1.07, 30th percentile) and post-up PPP allowed (.92, 24th percentile).
The Beach runs a similar offense, a pace-and-post style. Marcus Tsohonis pushes the pace in the open court, and the Traore duo combines for 30 points per game, including 16 in the paint.
The Wildcats are an elite transition denial defense but are a tad vulnerable in the post.
This matchup is impossible to handicap.
Arizona could run Long Beach State off the court, but the 49ers could keep it close with post buckets.
I am tending toward the Beach here, given these two squads run very similar offenses, which could result in a tighter ball-game with two defenses that can figure out how to match up.
