The South Region is fascinating on a personal level. I see weakness in the bottom half of the bracket and some potholes for Houston in the top half.
Additionally, my beloved Vermont Catamounts will match up with Duke in the first round. I don’t love the matchup, but pulling off the upset against college basketball’s most hated team would be something I never shut up about.
Ultimately, I think the chalk mostly holds, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see chaos from a First Four team.
Let's dive into my South Region preview, including my favorite matchup, top sleeper and info on the favorite.
South Region Favorite
Houston (+140 to Win South Region)
It’s pretty hard to see Houston not coming out of this region. The Cougars’ nation-leading, overwhelmingly dominant defense gives them too high of a floor.
The Coogs run a ball-screen blitz defense — which you can read more about here — that sends two to the ball on every pick-and-roll action while rotating and scrambling on the back end.
This creates crazy amounts of on-ball turnovers, but the Houston big men are so dominant on their rotations that the Cougars also swarm the paint and deny the rim better than any other squad in college basketball.
Opponents can’t beat Houston with ball-screen creation or post feeds. But there are a few ways to potentially beat the blitz.
First, the inherent nature of the scheme allows plenty of weak-side spot-up shots, so Houston ranks around 300th in 3-point rate allowed. Of course, the Cougars are so good on their closeouts — using a “fly-by” style — that teams can only beat them with uber-crisp perimeter passing and dead-eye sharpshooting.
Iowa State did that in its Big 12 Tournament win, shooting 9-for-22 (41%). Kansas and TCU combined to go 14-for-28 (50%) for a similar result.
Secondly, teams can ignore ball-screen creation altogether and create in isolation, thus circumventing the blitz.
Of course, Houston is such an excellent iso defense (.67 PPP allowed, 90th percentile) that there must be a dominant iso baller to win that way.
Third, a team can win the extras, given that the scheme's inherent nature allows plenty of rebounds and free-throw attempts.
Houston isn’t as dominant offensively, but Jamal Shead’s deadly middle-of-the-floor creation and the team’s relatively decent shooting keep the Cougars afloat.
Although, they can get stale when the perimeter shots aren’t falling, as they did in the Big 12 Tournament title game, where they went 4-for-22 from deep (18%).
Ultimate Winner of Region
Houston Cougars (+140)
Ultimately, I would be most worried about Houston matching up with Texas A&M (+1800) in the second round.
The Aggies have excellent guard play led by Wade Taylor IV and can beat anyone when shots fall, as evidenced by a surprising run to the SEC Tournament semifinals.
However, the key is that the Aggies can beat Houston on the extras, given they relentlessly attack the rim off the bounce (top-50 nationally in free-throw rate) and off misses (first nationally in offensive rebounding rate).
These two met in the noncon when Texas A&M grabbed 17 offensive boards and visited the charity stripe 22 times.
The Coogs pulled out a four-point win only because they shot 11-for-27 (41%) from deep. The Aggies would’ve posted an enormous upset if those shots didn't fall.
But if they get past TAMU, I think the Coogs should roll.
Potential Bracket-Buster
Colorado Buffaloes (+8000)
The bottom half of the South Region is a mess.
Marquette's Tyler Kolek and Florida's Micah Handlogten have serious injury concerns. Kentucky doesn’t play defense and could lose any game if shots aren’t falling. The exact same goes for Texas Tech.
So, some chaos could come from here, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Buffs make it happen.
Colorado slumped during the midseason because of injuries to Cody Williams and Tristan da Silva. Still, the Buffs got healthy and soared down the stretch, winning eight of their final nine en route to a Pac-12 Tournament title game appearance.
The Buffs probably would’ve won that game if it weren’t for N’Faly Dante going thermonuclear.
There’s plenty to like about Colorado.
Point guard KJ Simpson is an elite two-way guard, da Silva is a versatile four and Eddie Lampkin is a monster on the boards.
The Buffs are lethal in transition. They excel at creating interior offense in the half-court — Tad Boyle’s Princeton motion is tough to stop with so many versatile scorers.
They’re good at creating open 3-point shots (29th nationally in Open-3 Rate) and preventing them (36th nationally in Open-3 Rate Allowed). They ran a switch-everything defense but still never fouled (first in Pac-12 in FTA rate allowed) and cleaned up everything (first in Pac-12 in defensive rebounding rate).
They’re healthy, they’re talented, they’re dangerous and everybody else in their way has massive flaws.
Of course, the Buffs don’t have many high-quality wins and have struggled away from home, but I’d take my chances with them anyway.
Best Matchup of First Round
Texas Tech vs. NC State
Texas Tech has a flamethrowing, supernova offense behind the insane backcourt dribble and shot creation of Joe Toussaint and Pop Isaacs.
NC State has an elite ACC guard in DJ Horne, who pushes the pace in transition while feeding the rock to the nation’s most unique big man in DJ Burns.
Burns is a 275-pound walking unicorn. Considering his frame, I don’t know how his footwork is so crafty. Behind him, the Pack are among the nation’s most post-heavy offenses.
It should be a fun, higher-scoring matchup with fascinating players littering both rosters.
I’m also inquisitive as to how NC State will respond emotionally and physically after winning five games in five days to barely make the field of 68.
