The Tempo Report is back for the Sweet 16 after going 3-0 through the first weekend of March Madness. The totals from the First Round came in at an even 16-15-1 to the under, while the Second Round fell 9-7 to the over.
Our field for the Sweet 16 is set, and it contains a number of matchups with similar tempo.
Each total is looked at with three major statistical categories. Offensive rebounding can be a large edge for teams that prefer mid-range jumpers and finishing at the rim. A team’s ability to draw fouls and shoot free throws with a stopped clock is also a consideration.
Finally, a team that wants to play in transition with an opponent that desires fast breaks can post a score close to 200.
Here's a look at the Sweet 16 matchups and their tempo rank:
  |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
Two of the best shooting teams in the nation will collide in Los Angeles, as both Clemson and Arizona rank top-20 offensively in shot quality.
Clemson gets a heavy amount of points from beyond the arc, ranking top-25 in both frequency and points per possession on catch-and-shoot 3-pointers. It should find success against a Wildcats team that's 146th in defending catch-and-shoot jumpers from long range.
Arizona prefers transition and finishing at the rim, both areas the Tigers have had severe struggles in. Clemson ranks 190th in defending the rim and a low 310th in transition efficiency.
On top of those advantages, the Wildcats have an edge offensively in free-throw rate.
There are plenty of avenues to get points up on the board for both teams.
Oumar Ballo with the SLAM for Arizona 🔥 pic.twitter.com/VJAvQNsiob
— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) March 21, 2024
Pick: Over 152
Despite one of the slowest tempo ranks in the nation, San Diego State has more overs than unders on the season. The Aztecs have one of the highest free-throw rates in the nation, generated from a heavy amount of post and mid-range shooting attempts.
Head coach Brian Dutcher isn't afraid to amp up the pace, ranking 197th in offensive tempo with the 74th-highest frequency of transition.
There may not be many points in the paint against UConn, a team that dominates down low and against screens defensively. This may cause Dutcher to get the Aztecs in fifth gear against a Huskies defense outside the top 200 in transition.
Connecticut has a small advantage in free-throw rate, but the biggest edge of any is offensive rebounding. Donovan Clingan, Stephon Castle and Tristen Newton are in the top 500 individually in rebounding.
UConn prefers a heavy amount of screens and cutters with the second-highest efficiency rate of the pick-and-roll.
San Diego State has had sever struggles in those categories, ranking outside the top 250 in defensive points per possession.
Pick: Over 136
Who would dare take an under in a game projected at 75 possessions with two top-10 teams in terms of offensive shot quality?
Neither team has the advantage on the offensive glass, but North Carolina will have no issues getting to the free-throw line against a Bama defense that's 327th in free-throw rate.
The Tar Heels' biggest advantage comes in transition. The Crimson Tide rank mid-Division I in defending transition attacks and 301st against off-ball screens, a set the Heels use at the 66th-highest rate.
Alabama may struggle to get points as easily as Carolina. Head coach Nate Oats prefers a heavy amount of transition and finishing at the rim, and North Carolina's defense ranks 30th in both categories.
The entire game for Alabama will be decided from beyond the arc, as it ranks top-25 in both off-the-dribble and catch-and-shoot 3-point attempts. The Tar Heels haven't defended the 3-point line well all season.
Expect North Carolina to live in transition and the free-throw line, combatted by a heavy amount of long-distance shots from Alabama.
Pick: Over 173.5
Iowa State futures will be in jeopardy against Illinois to cap off Thursday night.
The Fighting Illini hold large advantages in free-throw rate and offensive rebounds. Illinois has the advantage in experience and average height, giving way to a heavy amount of post-up attempts.
Viewers can expect Illinois to attack the rim, with a points per possession rank of 37th against an Iowa State defense that's 116th.
Dainja is taking over as Illinois stretches their lead to 9!#MarchMadnesspic.twitter.com/jKC1p7zBTn
— TSN (@TSN_Sports) March 21, 2024
The Cyclones will combat with cutters and mid-range jumpers, as they rank 73rd in point distribution from inside the arc.
No team in the country has seen more mid-range jumpers than the Illinois defense, but efficiency in defending the rim has been a consistent issue.
Iowa State will have no luck getting to the free-throw line and doesn't hold an advantage on the glass.
Pick: Under 146
Friday's action starts with all eyes on NC State center DJ Burns Jr., who's been a large factor in the Wolfpack's rank of 10th in post-up frequency. The former transfer from Winthrop uses his Hakeem Olajuwon-like footwork to take advantage of opponents who are light in the paint.
Marquette is 129th in defensive post efficiency, led by Oso Ighodaro. If the Golden Eagles are successful in limiting Burns' post attempts, NC State will turn to its transition attack and mid-range jumpers to get points on the board.
There's no advantage for the Wolfpack in terms of free-throw rate, making Burns the lifeblood of this offense.
DJ BURNS CONNECTS ON THE HOOK SHOT 🔥#MarchMadness@PackMensBballpic.twitter.com/ZT3mVeovSn
— NCAA March Madness (@MarchMadnessMBB) March 22, 2024
Marquette prefers to let the ball fly, taking a heavy amount of shots from long distance in the form of off-the-dribble and catch-and-shoot 3-point attempts.
The pick-and-roll may be limited against an NC State defense that ranks 10th against that set.
The Golden Eagles will also look to get in transition, but the Wolfpack are top-50 in Defensive Efficiency.
With no advantages in free-throw rate and two defenses apt to shut down transition opportunities, look for a lower amount of points from both squads.
Pick: Under 151
The Bulldogs may not have enough personnel in the rotation to throw fouls at Purdue center Zach Edey. The free-throw line will be fascinating in this matchup, as the Boilermakers are top-10 in getting to the charity stripe against a Gonzaga defense that's 20th in limiting teams' free-throw attempts.
There's no doubt Purdue is going to the post on nearly every possession. That poses a challenge for the Gonzaga defense, which ranks 202nd in post-up Defensive Efficiency.
The Bulldogs don't have an advantage on the glass or in getting to the free-throw line. The bread and butter of Mark Few's offense has been the post-up — with guards making cuts to the basket — and the pick-and-roll.
Gonzaga has advantages in every offensive category against Purdue, including a heavy amount of transition frequency and efficiency.
While Purdue is looking to generate half-court possessions ending in high-percentage Edey attempts, Gonzaga will look to go the distance if Purdue doesn't drop defenders.
Look for Few to get efficiency out of both his team's tempo and post play, especially with Graham Ike and Anton Watson.
Pick: Over 154.5
The Blue Devils broke out of a scoring funk in the Second Round, generating a blowout against James Madison. Duke hit half of its 28 attempts from long distance, won the rebounding battle and turned the ball over just six times.
Head coach Jon Scheyer needed his squad to get on track before taking on the best defensive team in the nation.
Duke has been unsuccessful in creating offense from the post or mid-range. The Blue Devils are outside the top 200 in rim and screen efficiency.
The 3-point line has bailed Duke out of a handful of games, but Houston’s top overall defensive rank in off-the-dribble 3-point attempts will play a major factor in this Sweet 16 duel.
Houston doesn't get to the free-throw line often, mixing mid-range jumpers with pick-and-roll screens and post-up attempts.
Surprisingly, the Cougars are 348th in attacking the rim frequency, instead, consistently looking for a high efficiency in 3-point attempts.
Duke’s defense has been excellent in transition, but poor marks in defending the pick-and-roll translates to Houston having longer possessions and dominating the offensive glass.
Pick: Under 134
Creighton will get six nights of rest after going to double overtime against Oregon. The Bluejays survived Dana Altman’s multiple defensive gridlock system, but now must face a Rick Barnes defense that's third in Adjusted Efficiency, per KenPom.
Creighton is severely undermatched in offensive free-throw rate and rebounding, an indication that shots must fall on its first attempts against Tennessee.
Head coach Greg McDermott prefers a heavy amount of pick-and-roll, mixed with off-ball screens and catch-and-shoot 3-pointers. Tennessee dominates opponents running the pick-and-roll, along with owning a top-10 rank in defending the rim.
The Volunteers don't generate the kind of offense Creighton excels in stopping. The Bluejays' defense is best in the nation in defending the rim, half-court sets and the pick-and-roll.
Tennessee runs none of those sets on a consistent basis, relying on screens, post-ups and attempts from beyond the arc. Tennessee is 31st in catch-and-shoot 3-point efficiency, an area Creighton hasn't been able to defend all season.
Look for the Volunteers to push tempo on offense, but a failure to create baskets by Creighton will keep the scoring low.
