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Over the years, I’ve developed a low-risk, high-reward approach to betting March Madness.
The general idea is to identify under-seeded teams that have a good shot of making it far in the tournament. We'll bet these teams on the moneyline each game (with a few exceptions, as we'll discuss). As long as these teams keep winning, we will keep betting them on the moneyline, rolling up both our bet and our winnings into each subsequent moneyline bet on that team until either:
- Two of our chosen teams face each other, meaning we can cash both out.
- The team makes the Elite Eight.*
*There are occasionally exceptions to this rule. If there are, they will be noted in the picks.
Using this approach, we can identify eight teams and invest a small amount in each. For this example, let's use one-quarter of a unit, or $25.
Using this $25 quarter-unit bet on eight teams, the $200 initial investment will likely pay off as long as at least one of our eight teams makes the Elite Eight. If none do, we limit our losses to $200.
However, the upside is pretty big.
First, we get to sweat and root for eight teams, giving us plenty of interest throughout the first (and hopefully second) weekend. Even better, most of them are underdogs, Cinderella stories, if you will. And who doesn't love a good Cinderella run?
Second, this strategy has the chance to produce some big returns. Here's how my strategy has fared over the years
- 2017: My analysis identified 11-seed Xavier. The Musketeers made the Elite Eight while knocking off the No. 6, No. 3 and No. 2 seeds, returning 33 times my initial $25 investment on them.
- 2018: Another 11-seed in Loyola Chicago was one of my picks. Per my system, I cashed the Ramblers out in the Elite Eight, returning 16 times my initial investment, but Loyola continued its Cinderella story onto the Final Four.
- 2019: 5-seed Auburn was one of my teams. The Tigers also reached the Final Four. I bet them to cover the spread in the first game, which they did, then rolled them up on the moneyline thereafter, earning me 10 times my initial investment on them before cashing out in the Elite Eight.
- 2020: COVID
- 2021: I skipped 2021 because I felt the roster turnover made evaluations tough with players missing plenty of time throughout the year because of COVID.
- 2022: My eight teams combined for a paltry one win. That only win came in the play-in round. Certainly a disastrous year, but that's why we play the lose-small, win-big strategy. We limit our losses to just two units with the upside to win much more.
- 2023: While I did have No. 8-seed Arkansas upset No. 1-seed Kansas to reach the Sweet 16, their run ended against eventual national champions Connecticut. Two other teams, No. 6 seed Creighton and No. 9 seed Florida Atlantic reached the Elite Eight. However, because I chose to bet Creighton to cover the spread against N.C. State in the opener and they failed to do so, that didn't count. Similarly, Florida Atlantic was primed to face Purdue in the second round, but Fairleigh Dickinson pulled off the second-ever No. 16 over No. 1 upset. That meant, in an audible, I ended up betting FAU to cover against Fairleigh Dickinson, and they unfortunately did not.
- 2024: Another big success! N.C. State made it to the Elite Eight as an 11 seed and returned 15 times the initial investment on them for a total profit of 1.75x the initial two-unit investment.
If you're keeping score, that's four profitable years out of six. We'll look to make it five of seven this year in what I think is the toughest year so far for this system given the top-heavy nature of the four No. 1 seeds.
Knowing that, how do we go about applying my Giffen Guide to March Madness for the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Let's dive in.
NCAA Tournament Moneyline Rollover Picks
Before I dive into any picks or regions, I want to point out that this is an incredibly unique year for the tournament. The four No. 1 seeds are four of the six highest-rated teams to enter the tournament since 2002.
It's going to be an incredibly difficult year to topple the top seeds and, as a result, I'm mostly avoiding their halves of the region and targeting the No. 2 seeds instead. Let's start with the exception to that …
Midwest Region
I'm starting in the Midwest Region because it's an incredibly unique region this year for the Giffen Guide with some twists and turns I've never had to do before thanks to the unique situation we have this year with the top seeds.
However, before I dive into the Houston half of the region, I'll turn to the bottom half of the South, where we have a double-up situation on Tennessee's portion of the bracket. And since there are a couple of First Four teams playing in Dayton on Wednesday night that are involved, I'll start there.
1. Choose Your Own First Four Adventure
The First Four game between Xavier and Texas puts either winning team in a great spot to make a run to the Sweet 16 to face Tennessee. Additionally, thanks to the Volunteers' slow pace, an upset of them isn't out of the question.
So, I'm fine if you want to moneyline rollover either team here, either starting with the play-in game to the Sweet 16, or just waiting until one of the teams emerges and then rolling over the team that advances between Xavier and Texas from the official First Round to the Elite Eight.
To have an official pick, and to avoid Tennessee, who does grade out at a strong No. 2 seed, I'll take Texas as a moneyline rollover to the Sweet 16 simply because the +140 odds you can get at Casears Sportsbook are better than the odds I give (+120 fair value) Texas to advance.
How to Play: Texas Moneyline to the Sweet 16, decide on continuing further after that.
2. No. 7 UCLA Bruins
I don't love this first-round spot for UCLA against Utah State, but I'm not looking toward the first round with this strategy. My goal is to get a team to the Elite Eight and UCLA provides a better opportunity than Utah St. or most of the teams slated to meet a No. 1 seed before the Elite Eight in any region.
UCLA is favored against the Aggies, and should they advance, they will face the aforementioned Tennessee Volunteers, who play at a bottom-20 pace. The Bruins play at a bottom-65 tempo, so a game between the two plodders should produce a higher variance thanks to fewer possessions for the Vols to realize their per-possession efficiency advantage.
From there, UCLA gets likely either Kentucky or Illinois, both of whom actually ranked below UCLA in the preseason rankings. I mention that solely because preseason rankings, even at this time of year, do still have some predictive power, so it's likely UCLA is closer in true strength than most typical computer models make them.
How to Play: UCLA Moneyline to the Elite Eight
3. No. 4 Purdue Boilermakers/No. 5 Clemson Tigers Special Strategy
We have a first for the Giffen Guide. Never in six years have I employed this strategy, but I'm going to take both Clemson and Purdue and hope for the better one one of a few potential paths.
By taking both Purdue and Clemson for 0.125 units each to cover the spread in their opening games, three scenarios emerge:
- Both fail to cover the spread, lose 0.25 units.
- Both cover the spread, cash out 0.455 units of profit.
- One of the two teams fails to cover the spread and we're out 0.023 units, but we can re-deploy 0.25 units on the team that did cover the spread.
For the third option, if they faced each other, we could moneyline rollover the original covering team to the Elite Eight if they face each other. If the original covering team instead faces either McNeese or High Point due to an upset, we can then use that 0.25 units to cover the spread again, then moneyline rollover from there.
A success there would turn the 0.25 units into just under half a unit as either Purdue or Clemson then faces most likely Houston, but potentially Gonzaga as the next-most likely option. In either case, the Boilermakers or Tigers would be an underdog to the Zags or Cougars.
A win against either team in the Sweet 16 with a moneyline bet gets us close to, if not beyond, the profit threshold.
I like targeting Houston as they are the weakest of the No. 1 seeds by my power rating and the team that plays the slowest. They could also potentially be without big man J'Wan Roberts, which would help the underdog. In addition, Clemson and Purdue are relatively slow paced, so we're in a similar scenario to a hypothetical UCLA/Tennessee matchup, where there's just far fewer possessions than typical for the favored team to realize its efficiency edge.
How to Play: Deploy Special Strategy Outlined Above
West Region
I'm avoiding Florida's half of the region. I have UConn graded as the second-worst eight seed (although they grade out to a borderline seven seed, showing how under-seeded most of the eight seeds are) and Oklahoma as clearly the worst nine seed. Memphis is also, by far, the worst five seed in my power rankings with only the somewhat up-tempo Maryland Terrapins really posing a threat to the somewhat up-tempo Gators, giving Florida more possessions to work their edge.
4. No. 7 Kansas Jayhawks
Turning to the bottom half of the West Region, I actually have the No. 3 seed Texas Tech Red Raiders ranked ahead of No. 2-seed St. John's, but we're not really getting value on a three seed. And while I like Missouri to cover against Drake, I don't like that Missouri is slightly up tempo and fouls at a relatively high rate against a team that's nails from the charity stripe.
However, if you fancy otherwise, I'm fine if you want to go with Missouri spread then moneyline to the Elite Eight in this spot.
That said, by default, I'm left with a team whose name ends in Kansas — either Arkansas or the Kansas Jayhawks themselves.
And again, I'm fine if you want to take Arkansas here instead. I don't have particularly strong feelings in this half of the West, but St. John's is not favored to make the Elite Eight so we should be targeting someone in their half of the region.
Kansas was the No. 1 ranked team in the preseason, which again, isn't something we can just throw out and gives them a boost in my power ratings. This team has a strong statistical prior, and the market could be down on Bill Self's team after a 7-7 record over their last fourteen games.
I also like how Kansas matches up here. The Jayhawks are a bad free throw shooting team, but won't need to rely on that as Arkansas is not a team that fouls much. That puts the focus on Kansas' offensive strengths, while on the other side of the ball Arkansas' biggest strength is their shot making ability both from the field and the line. Kansas is a great shot stopping team and tends not to put teams on the line.
St. John's is a weak two seed, having the unranked preseason curse. So I'll take what my power ratings have as the clear strongest No. 7 seed Kansas to cover the spread against Arkansas, then roll that over on the moneyline past the Johnnies and past their next foe (likely Texas Tech or Missouri) into the Elite Eight, but it doesn't feel comfortable.
How to Play: Kansas spread first round, then moneyline to the Elite Eight
South Region
Like the West Region, I'm avoiding the one seed here as Auburn has the easiest path to the Elite Eight, per my numbers, of any No. 1 seed.
Instead, I'll target a vulnerable Michigan St. as a No. 2 seed, who like St. John's, wasn't even ranked in the preseason.
5. No. 7 Marquette Golden Eagles
You know who was ranked ahead of MSU in the preseason? Marquette.
The South's No. 7 seed, Marquette, actually grades out like a low-six seed by my power rankings, while facing a Spartans squad that grades out like a mid-three seed.
The other reason I'm picking Marquette instead of New Mexico: pace. I don't like that the Lobos push the tempo in a spot where they'll be underdogs in consecutive games.
Give me the Golden Eagles to make at least the Sweet 16, where hopefully we can cash out if they face my next team …
How to Play: Marquette Moneyline to the Elite Eight, unless they face my other pick in this region.
6. No. 11 North Carolina Tar Heels
I know, I know … 1-12 in Quadrant 1 games, but this is a team on the rebound. The Tar Heels went 7-2 over their past nine games with both losses to Duke, by an average of just eight points.
During that span, UNC has rebounded from 47th in KenPom's rankings to 33rd, climbing closer toward their preseason poll ranking of No. 9 and their preseason KenPom ranking of No. 15.
That rise also coincided with a move from Seth Trimble to Drake Powell, as well as from Ian Jackson to Jae'Lyn Withers, in the starting lineup. Both new starters grade out better according to EvanMiya.com, and the Tar Heels have found a rotation they can believe in.
I have UNC by five over San Diego State, but I think it's likely going to be higher given the current rotation. Our schedule-adjusted player prop model makes this closer to an eight-point Tar Heel victory, so I'll take UNC to cover the spread in its First Four game.
If you have FanDuel, I'm fine with playing UNC on the moneyline at -182 instead since we should get some plus-odds in their next two games.
From there, the Tar Heels are essentially a coinflip against six-seed Ole Miss, which grades out more like an eight seed. Then, UNC could face a banged-up Iowa State squad that's missing Keshon Gilbert for the season and possibly Tamin Lipsey, who is also dealing with an injury of his own.
How to Play: UNC to Cover the Spread against San Diego St. (or moneyline at anything -185 or better), then moneyline rollover to the Sweet 16
East Region
Again, I'm avoiding the No. 1 seed as Duke grades out as the strongest one seed and shouldn't need Cooper Flagg in the first round, resting him for a game against either Mississippi State or Baylor, where Duke should roll.
Duke's biggest threat is Arizona, but the Wildcats push tempo, which isn't ideal as an underdog to the top-seeded Blue Devils.
Instead, I'm doubling up on the bottom half of the region.
7. No. 11 VCU Rams
Not intentionally, but I'm staying within the Giffen household again after my N.C. State Wolfpack (I went to grad school there) rolled last year. This time, it's my youngest brother's VCU Rams who I'm picking after being criminally under-seeded as an 11 seed.
My power ratings make VCU a 1.25-point underdog here on a neutral, and while this may not be the most neutral spot with VCU having to travel west at altitude to face BYU, who resides just a state away, it's not a full home-court spot for BYU, who actually relies on home-court advantage 1.5 standard deviations more than the average team.
On the flip side, VCU is nearly one standard deviation below the average home-court reliance when adjusting for team strength, meaning they fare a bit better away and in neutral spots than a typical team of their strength.
So, I can't get to a 3.5-point spread, which also translates on the moneyline.
Give me VCU on the moneyline here, then again against an overseeded Wisconsin team that grades out more like a four seed. From there, we hope to have VCU face my final pick …
How to Play: VCU on the Moneyline until the Elite Eight, unless they play the other pick in this Region
8. No. 7 St. Mary's Gaels
We hit a couple of notable points here by taking St. Mary's.
First, this means I've picked all four seven seeds for my moneyline rollover strategy this year. Second, we pick St. Mary's one year after going against them, successfully taking Grand Canyon to upset the Gaels in the First Round last year.
The main reason here is the lookahead.
We have to find a way to get past Alabama, and St. Mary's presents the best opportunity to do so.
The Gaels plodding pace — sixth-slowest nationally — should keep the up-tempo Crimson Tide in check while defensively doing exactly what Alabama doesn't want to see — taking away the 3.
Among tournament teams, Alabama is second to only Liberty in the highest quality shots, those that come at the rim and from downtown. Meanwhile, St. Mary's forces teams to shoot from inside, but also allows the 12th-lowest field-goal percentage from inside.
Full stop, I truly believe — aside from Duke — St. Mary's has the best chance to take down Alabama in the East Region.
If they get past Alabama, then it's more moneyline to the Elite Eight, unless we're lucky enough that they face VCU, in which we can handsomely cash out our winnings from those two teams.
How to Play: St. Mary's on the Moneyline to the Elite Eight, unless they play VCU in the Sweet 16
