Everybody loves the No. 12 over No. 5 upset, while No. 11 seeds actually have a winning record in the first round since 2010 (30-26 overall).
However, those are the easier upsets to pick. In fact, we even have an 12-seed (Colorado State) favored in this year's bracket.
So, what about the teams seeded even lower? Well, at least one team seeded 13 or lower has won a first-round game in 15 of the past 16 NCAA Tournaments.
Depending on the pool size or bracket contest you enter, your success will usually boil down to nailing the teams that make it through to the Elite Eight, Final Four and — ultimately — the national title.
However, you can also improve your chances by picking some of the bigger upsets in the first two rounds. While I wouldn't recommend picking any 16-seeds (two combined wins in tourney history, albeit both coming in recent years), we've seen much more success from the 13-15 seeds.
In fact, eight No. 13 seeds have won in the first round over the past eight NCAA Tournaments, including Yale over Auburn last year.
If you want to get even crazier, we've seen a 15-seed make the Sweet 16 in three of the past four seasons after only one other 15-seed had ever previously advanced that far.
We even saw Saint Peter's become the first ever 15-seed to make the Elite Eight a few seasons ago — sandwiched in between Oral Roberts and Princeton making their runs to the second weekend.
While all four No. 15 seeds flamed out in the first round last year, we did see No. 14 seed Oakland upset Kentucky.
If you can correctly pick one or two of those early upsets, it'll also increase your chances of nailing the teams that make it further.
For reference, here are the all-time records for 13-15 seeds:
- 13 seeds: 33-123 (21.1%)
- 14 seeds: 23-133 (14.7%)
- 15 seeds: 11-145 (7.0%)
Since I'm not entertaining the thought of a No. 16 seed winning — especially this season with a weaker crop — let's focus in on the 12 teams seeded between No. 13 and No. 15 by highlighting each of their chances of pulling off a stunner.
I have ranked them in descending order from least to most likely to pull off an upset.
These aren't simply ranked in the order of my projected lines. Instead, I'm focusing more on the variance of each game and the on-court matchup.
For example, a team that shoots and makes a high frequency of 3-pointers and/or can compete in shot volume usually has a better chance of an upset. Interestingly enough, historically, slower-paced teams have pulled off upsets at a lower clip, which might seem counterintuitive.
This is simply an exercise to help you pick an upset or two while also offering insight into some of the lesser-known teams in the bracket for betting purposes.
Generally speaking, my strategy is to pick two upsets from this group each year and hope I get lucky. With that said, this is the widest disparity we've ever seen ratings wise in terms of the 1-16, 2-15 and 3-14 matchups.
My macro hypothesis in the new portal world after last season is that the first rounds will continue to be very chalky, while the later rounds will be more exciting as parity grows at the top of the sport. Meanwhile, the gap between the high- and mid-majors continues to widen.
Based on this year's matchups, I'd say there's about a 50% chance we get at least one No. 13 seed that pulls off an upset and a 33% chance a No. 14 seed does.
I don't really see a No. 15 seed winning, but who ever does?
| Game | Time (ET) | |
|---|---|---|
  | 12:40 p.m. (Friday) | |
  | 9:45 p.m. (Thursday) | |
  | 10:10 p.m. (Thursday) | |
  | 1:30 p.m. (Thursday) | |
  | 6:50 p.m. (Thursday) | |
  | 10 p.m. (Friday) | |
  | 1:30 p.m. (Friday) | |
  | 4:35 p.m. (Friday) | |
  | 7:35 p.m. (Friday) | |
  | 12:40 p.m. (Thursday) | |
  | 7:10 p.m. (Friday) | |
  | 7:25 p.m. (Thursday) |
#12 | No. 15 Robert Morris +22.5 vs. Alabama
This is closer to a 16 vs. 1 matchup spread-wise, and it's hard to envision Robert Morris keeping up with Alabama's elite offense.
However, there are a few positives working in the Colonials' favor.
Alabama has an extremely poor (negative) shot volume profile, which will always help an underdog. The Tide never turn teams over, which should provide some relief for Robert Morris, as the Colonials have major turnover issues.
The Colonials are also very good on the offensive glass and get to the line frequently, which are two other areas where Alabama can be exploited a bit.
The Colonials also have very good rim protection with Alvaro Folgueiras and Amarion Dickerson, which enables them to limit open 3-point attempts at a very respectable level (78% guarded catch-and-shoot rate, per Synergy). That's key against the Tide.
Now, Alabama is going to get to the rim and will certainly finish at a much higher clip than Horizon League opponents, but it shouldn't be open season from 3 at least. The Robert Morris bigs can also shoot a bit, which could cause some problems for Alabama.
It's worth noting that Grant Nelson could miss this game with an injury. That lowers Alabama's offensive ceiling.
That doesn't hurt matters, but Alabama is just too talented and too deep.
With that said, I'm definitely looking at Robert Morris with the points at the current price, which I show a bit of value on.
There's enough paths for Robert Morris to score to keep this within three touchdowns against a defense that won't turn the Colonials over at a high clip.
Now, if Alabama has one of its absurd shooting nights from 3, the Tide will win by 30. But that's almost always the case with Bama games.
Results vs. other tourney teams:
- W, 90-77 vs. St. Francis (PA)
The Colonials only played one high-major in West Virginia and lost 87-59, but that was to open the season with a brand new team.
Head coach Andrew Toole has done a remarkable job with this club. They've been undervalued by the market for two months, with the Colonials finishing the season on a 16-1 SU and ATS run.
How an upset happens: Prayer circles and rain dances
#11 | No. 15 Omaha +18.5 vs. St. John's
On the surface, Omaha has a few things working in its favor. It excels on the defensive glass (19th nationally), which you need to do against the Johnnies, who rank ninth in offensive rebounding rate.
And in order to really keep up with St. John's, you can't turn it over (Omaha excels in that department), and you have to make 3s over the top of the defense. Well, the Mavericks rank in the top-50 nationally in that department at over 36% and even connected on more than 40% of their triples in league play.
With that said, all of those metrics came against a Summit League schedule — defense is primarily optional in that conference. Meanwhile, Rick Pitino's bunch ranks No. 1 in overall adjusted defensive efficiency.
The Mavericks will pack it in on defense — since they have absolutely zero rim protection — and just hope St. John's chucks up 3s inefficiently.
On an off day, can the Mavericks get enough defensive rebounds? Despite their strong statistical profile, that will be tough against the much taller and more physical Johnnies.
St. John's also should still find success in the pick-and-roll and in the post, even against a super-compact defense that doesn't have many redeeming qualities other than its rebounding prowess.
The talent mismatch is just too great here, and the Johnnies should eventually wear down the Mavericks. Omaha has to hope it goes absolutely nuclear from 3-point land, as I just don't see any other path to consistent offense, especially with a likely lack of second-chance opportunities.
Marquel Sutton is an outstanding mid-major player, but he'll find it extremely hard to score in this matchup.
While point guard JJ White has improved as the season has progressed, I can't help but remember how much Omaha struggled against the UNLV and Minnesota presses earlier this season in a pair of road losses.
St. John's has those same press looks but on steroids.
Results vs. other tourney teams:
- L, 83-51 at Iowa State
- L, 85-67 vs. Alabama State (neutral)
- L, 92-84 at Akron
How an upset happens: Shoot 17-of-30 from 3, hope the Johnnies shoot 2-of-21 and hold on for dear life. Pitino's bunch is due some negative two-way 3-point shooting regression.
#10 | No. 14 UNCW +15.5 vs. Texas Tech
Texas Tech will apparently be at full strength for this tournament, which means Chance McMillian and Darrion Williams will return to the lineup. With its full arsenal, I believe Texas Tech is a top-five team in the country, so this is a bit of a brutal draw for the 14-seeded Seahawks.
UNCW is a super deep, experienced and physical mid-major with a rock solid senior point guard in Donovan Newby and very good size on the interior to throw at JT Toppin. The Seahawks shouldn't be intimidated, which can be half the battle to start these games.
The Seahawks do possess a healthy shot volume profile in a game that likely won't be played with a ton of tempo. But so does Tech. The Red Raiders can limit the Seahawks on the offensive glass, where they like to earn their paycheck.
Even if that ends up being a wash, I just don't think UNCW has the firepower to keep up in a game where it'll likely lose the 3-point battle by a wide margin.
Tech will allow you to operate in the mid-range, where UNCW's post-heavy offense likes to live, but that's a hard way to make a living if the Red Raiders are cashing in 3s on a consistent basis on the other end against a defense that allows a very high volume.
Plus, while the Red Raiders don't run a ton, they should feast in transition when they do against a very vulnerable UNCW transition defense.
Results vs. other tourney teams:
- L, 84-66 at Kansas
Texas Tech did have some underwhelming results on neutral courts this season, including an outright loss to Saint Joseph's, but this offense is built to blow out overmatched teams when it's at 100%.
How an upset happens: Hope Texas Tech isn't at full strength and has an atrocious day at the office from 3. The Seahawks can also hope for a tight whistle, which I think would actually benefit them in this matchup.
#9 | No. 14 Montana +17.5 vs. Wisconsin
Never ever trust the Big Sky in the NCAA Tournament. The league just doesn't profile well when stepping up in class (see: Montana's results vs. tournament teams below).
To wit, the Big Sky has gone 1-24 SU and 7-16-2 ATS in the tournament since 2000. It's lost 18 straight games and hasn't defeated a high-major this century.
Additionally, under head coach Travis DeCuire, the Grizzlies have gone 8-24 ATS against power conferences, failing to cover by nearly six points per game.
Montana has an electric offense that really took off after it inserted Kai Johnson into the starting lineup. It also hasn't hurt that the Grizz have shot 41.0% from 3 since February 1.
They're a rim-attacking, drive-based offense, which will be hard to pay off against the Wisconsin interior size. However, they do have capable 3-point shooters, which has to be the path here for a team that won't get any second-chance points.
On the other side of the ball, Montana does a tremendous job of denying 3-point attempts, which is helpful against the Badgers. But it also really lacks size, so the Badgers' bigs should feast near the rim against a very porous mid-major stop unit that ranks 250th in adjusted defensive efficiency.
The one potential saving grace for Montana is the schedule. While the Grizzlies are familiar with playing in altitude, Wisconsin got shipped out west to Denver to play the early game on Thursday.
This comes after it played its fourth game in four days on Sunday in the Big Ten Championship. The Badgers were clearly completely out of gas in that matchup.
Does that fatigue cary over here? Montana better hope so. That uncertainty probably keeps me off the side (Wisconsin) and total (over).
Under normal circumstances, Wisconsin would get to 90-plus with any normal shooting performance.
Results vs. other tourney teams:
- L, 79-48 at Oregon
- L, 92-57 at Tennessee
- L, 95-83 at Utah State
Per Bart Torvik, Montana went 1-6 against the top 100 with a defense that ranked outside the top 300. The offense still performed well (89th) in those games, but the Grizzlies couldn't stop a nose bleed.
How an upset happens: Extreme 3-point variance against a gassed Wisconsin team
#8 | No. 15 Wofford +17.5 vs. Tennessee
Wofford is a very methodical (333rd Adjusted Tempo) team that excels on the glass on both ends of the floor. The Terriers run a very unique offense, running plenty of sets through big man Kyler Filewich in attempt to generate rim-and-3 looks.
The Terriers aren't the most elite 3-point shooting team, but they can get white hot on the right day, as they have great spot-up shooters (90th percentile frequency/95th percentile efficiency).
While they excel on the glass, they aren't great in the turnover department on either end.
The good news for Wofford is it plays slow, can rebound and is a high-variance 3-point team on both ends of the floor. These two clubs actually met last year in a game Tennessee won 82-61. That matchup saw a whopping 64 3-point attempts.
The Terriers, who are an experienced bunch, do have a senior point guard in Corey Tripp who can be a steadying force in a game like this. However, their half-court defense is going to be a problem. They just don't have many defenders who can match Tennessee's athleticism or size.
Plus, I don't think they'll be able to run their normal sets or control the glass as usual against the more physical Vols.
Results vs. other tourney teams:
- L, 86-35 at Duke
- L, 78-69 at Lipscomb
How an upset happens: Filewich fouls out three Vols and makes all of his granny free throws. More realistically, in a low-possession game with extreme 3-point variance in favor of the Terriers.
#7 | No. 15 Bryant +17.5 vs. Michigan State
What came first the chicken or the egg? That's how I always think about teams like Bryant that have high-major athleticism across the board.
Will that play vs. the high majors or was that the reason they played so well against clearly inferior competition in league play?
Judging by Bryant's past results against high majors over the past two years, I'm leaning the latter.
Bryant can switch everything and contest at the rim with its superb length, but it also takes way too many bad shots on offense before ultimately crashing the offensive glass.
Can it win on the boards consistently against Michigan State? Probably not, which means the Spartans will get plenty of transition opportunities, where they're at their deadliest.
You want to force this Michigan State offense to operate in the half court, but I'm not sure Bryant is capable of doing that. That means the Bulldogs will eventually give up a few big runs when they go cold and can't control the offensive glass like they do in the America East.
Maybe Bryant can hang around for a half, but this game will likely eventually get a bit out of hand, especially considering Sparty holds a major depth advantage (338th in bench minutes vs. 13th).
From a betting perspective, I could be talked into Bryant first half, especially since Michigan State has had plenty of first-half offensive issues. But it's hard for me to see Earl Timberlake and Bulldogs pulling off the upset, even though they won't be overwhelmed athletically.
Results vs. other tourney teams:
- W, 99-77 at St. John's
- L, 112-66 at Grand Canyon
- L, 97-68 at Kentucky
How an upset happens: All of the overdue Michigan State defensive 3-point regression hits at once (although Bryant doesn't really shoot many 3s or shoot them well), which in turn limits Sparty's transition opportunities.
#6 | No. 14 Lipscomb +14.5 vs. Iowa State
Lipscomb is a super experienced club that runs an elite motion offense that will work through big man Jacob Ognacevic, who's surrounded by a bevy of shooters.
The Bisons aren't really looking to score at the rim, which is a fine approach against an Iowa State defense that ranks nicely in that area.
Can the Bisons handle the Clones' pressure and make 3s at a high clip away from home against a high-major, elite defense? I have my doubts.
And if they can't score at a very efficient level, it's likely lights out for the ASUN champs, as the Bisons don't have the size or athleticism on defense to slow down the Clones.
Lipscomb is a good defensive rebounding team and it doesn't foul much or turn it over frequently, which are major positives against Iowa State. However, the Bisons also don't turn teams over (which has been a weakness of the Clones) and can't defend at the rim. That spells trouble here.
Ultimately, Lipscomb will likely just get physically overwhelmed as the game progresses.
Now, it's worth mentioning Iowa State won't have the services of Keshon Gilbert. He matters.
Also, how healthy will Tamin Lipsey be?
The Clones are a juggernaut when at full strength, but they've shown cracks when they're not.
Results vs. other tourney teams:
- W, 78-69 vs. Wofford
- L, 76-60 at Arkansas
- L, 97-68 at Kentucky
How an upset happens: Clones are distracted with off-the-court stuff and super sloppy with the ball, while the Bison are marksmen from deep and win the 3-point battle by margin.
#5 | No. 13 Grand Canyon +10.5 vs. Maryland
Grand Canyon is a dangerous mid-major, especially now with a healthy Tyon Grant-Foster.
However, this isn't the same caliber of offense we saw from last year's tournament team. The Lopes still play extremely fast and attack the rim relentlessly, but they just don't have the same caliber of spacing or shooting without Gabe McGlothan.
Now, the defense (32nd in defensive efficiency) can certainly still cause plenty of problems for many high majors, but the Maryland starting five just has so many different avenues to offense, regardless of the opponent.
Now, it's worth noting that Grand Canyon does live at the free throw line, ranking seventh nationally in attempt rate. If there's a tight whistle and the Maryland starters get in foul trouble, the Terps could find themselves in trouble late — depth isn't a strong suit for them by any stretch.
However, if Maryland can avoid foul trouble, the shot-making disparity and likely turnover differential for the Terps should help them advance to the second round.
Results vs. other tourney teams:
- W, 91-73 vs. Norfolk State (neutral)
- L, 73-68 vs. Georgia (semi-away)
- W, 112-66 vs. Bryant
How an upset happens: Maryland foul trouble, plus Grand Canyon actually hits some outside shots.
#4 | No. 13 Akron +13.5 vs. Arizona
The red hot Zips (21-1 in 2025) want to run in a fast-paced game (16th in Adjusted Tempo), and they have an abundance of depth to do just that.
However, that will likely backfire against the more-talented Wildcats, who thrive in transition (which the Zips will allow) and should feast at the rim against a smaller opponent that doesn't offer much resistance near the basket.
However, if Akron gets hot from 3, it has the offensive firepower to keep up with Wildcats, especially if we get a bad Caleb Love game.
On the season, Akron shoots 3s at a top-50 rate and makes them at a top-40 rate, which can always be the great equalizer. That's especially true against an Arizona offense that's made just 30.3% from beyond the arc away from home this season (303rd).
Additionally, for the full season, Arizona allows an extremely high 3-point attempt rate, and that could backfire in this matchup.
However, Tommy Lloyd has changed his perimeter defense a bit in recent games, so I would imagine we see the Wildcats play a bit more aggressive up top in this matchup.
The third-year Johnsons (Tavari and Nate) run the show for an electric offense, but the Zips also brought in some high-major talent through the portal this past offseason.
They have a dangerous offense that can pick off a high-major when firing on all cylinders. That's what needs to happen because I don't envision Akron getting many stops on the other end (262nd in defensive efficiency since Feb. 1).
Results vs. other tourney teams:
- L, 87-68 at Saint Mary's
- W, 92-84 vs. Omaha
- W, 97-78 vs. Alabama State
- L, 74-58 vs. Yale (neutral)
How an upset happens: Caleb Love goes 3-of-15 from 3 and the Zips are pouring in 3s in a back-and-forth shootout.
#3 | No. 13 High Point +8.5 vs. Purdue
High Point is an extremely experienced and mega-deep squad that has a fantastic drive-and-kick offense with shooters all over that are elite in catch-and-shoot situations.
There's a reason this offense finished 25th in overall adjusted efficiency. They can score in bunches and have many different recipes to go to in the kitchen.
The Purdue defense has some exploitable matchups, so I do envision High Point being able to score in this matchup, even if we don't have any sample size from it this season against high-major teams.
However, the problem comes on the other end, where Purdue star point guard Braden Smith should carve up the High Point drop coverage anchored by 7-footer Juslin Bodo Bodo.
While Bodo Bodo is a plus defender and the Panthers do an adequate job of limiting 3-point attempts (and transition opportunities) with that scheme, nobody else on the team is really a plus defender — hence, why High Point finished 227th in defensive efficiency.
High Point can be destroyed in pick-and-roll and the mid-range (348th in attempt rate allowed). That spells disaster against Smith and a Boilermakers offense that ranks 28th in mid-range attempt rate and 11th in mid-range percentage.
The straight-up post defense also isn't great (15th percentile), which doesn't bode well against Trey Kaufman-Renn.
The bottom line is Purdue should score at will, even if it does shoot over 5% worse from 3 away from home this season.
I personally like the Purdue team total over.
Results vs. other tourney teams:
- L, 77-74 vs. Norfolk State
How an upset happens: High Point scores 90-plus.
#2 | No. 14 Troy +10.5 vs. Kentucky
It pains me to say this as a Kentucky fan, but the Cats are at risk of getting upset in the first round again.
They're not 100% healthy and profile as a major upset candidate (elite offense, shaky defense, questionable shot volume profile) against an opponent that plays a very unique defensive scheme with a rock solid shot volume profile.
And while Kentucky upgraded in the coaching department from an X's and O's perspective, Troy has a pretty good one itself in Scott Cross.
What does work in Kentucky's favor is its enormous edge in shot-making ability. Troy can't shoot a lick, while Kentucky is one of the better 3-point shooting offenses in the country.
The Trojans need to score at the rim, but they'll chuck up a bunch of 3s. These 3-point attempts come in an inefficient manner with a bunch of 30% shooters, unless Cooper Campbell is in the game for Myles Rigsby in which case the defense drops off.
Speaking of that defense, Troy has an elite press (95th percentile) and will mix in plenty of zone (85th percentile) in the half court with constantly shifting looks.
Their shot volume profile is also pretty solid since the Trojans crash the offensive glass (fifth nationally) and force turnovers at a high clip (53rd). Their defensive structure doesn't allow anything in the post and is elite against pick-and-roll sets.
Now, they do turn it over too much and can be had on the offensive glass, but Kentucky doesn't really take the ball away (341st) and doesn't thrive in the offensive rebounding department (221st).
As I mentioned previously, Troy does need to score at the rim and in transition (20th in quick points off steals), and I believe there's a path to doing so against the Cats.
Troy is a dangerous team with great length and is led by senior point guard Tayton Conerway, who's extremely underrated on both ends of the floor.
Kentucky will get chances to run and shoot 3s against the Troy defense, which is a dangerous proposition, but if the 3s aren't falling, Troy is very live in this game, especially if it has a rare good shooting night.
Results vs. other tourney teams:
- L, 65-49 at Arkansas
- L, 82-61 at Oregon
- L, 62-42 at Houston
How an upset happens: Kentucky isn't making its 3s and gets tight late. Lamont Butler not being at 100% would also help Troy's chances.
#1 | No. 13 Yale +7.5 vs. Texas A&M
Before the bracket reveal, I tweeted that the worst possible matchup for Texas A&M would be Yale. And lo and behold, it popped up on CBS just a few minutes into show.
So, why did I have that sentiment? Well, for starters, Yale is an excellent defensive rebounding team (22nd nationally), which is a requirement against Texas A&M. The Aggies, once again, lead the nation in offensive rebounding rate.
The Aggies live on the offensive glass and thrive on second-shot opportunities, as their first-shot offense is putrid.
The Bulldogs also don't turn it over and rarely foul, which are two other major boosts in this particular matchup.
Now, you can argue Yale played a very soft schedule, so the Bulldogs aren't as good as their numbers suggest, which is a fair rebuttal. They didn't face a single team ranked inside the top 70 in offensive rebounding rate, and the Ivy League isn't known for its offensive rebounding prowess.
However, in eight games against the top 150, they ranked 12th in defensive rebounding rate. Plus, they do have legit size that crashes the glass in a very compact defense.
These James Jones-coached teams have also demonstrated in the past they can battle with the big boys in that department.
Look no further than last year's win over Auburn or back in 2016 when they upset a Baylor squad that was dominant on the offensive glass all season at over 40.0%. (Yale snagged 28 defensive boards that game.)
Additionally, as I mentioned previously, Yale plays a very compact defense that goes underneath a lot on the perimeter. That leads to opponents shooting a high frequency of 3-pointers (359th in 3-point attempt rate allowed).
Well, Texas A&M is the perfect opponent to play that way since the Aggies can't shoot (317th in 3P%).
Forcing a ton of Texas A&M bad 3s and competing on the defensive glass is the formula here.
And the offense has paths to success, including a go-to-pro-level scorer in John Poulakidas.
Now, I do have a few concerns. For starters, Yale got shipped out west to play in altitude on Thursday after playing on Sunday in the Ivy final. Now, it only played two games over the weekend, but that's still not ideal for a team that doesn't have elite depth.
However, I'm more concerned with the whistle. Yale can't afford to get into foul trouble, especially when it comes to its two defensive stalwarts in point guard Bez Mbeng and rim protector Samson Aletan.
The defensive dropoff is significant without one or both, and the Bulldogs will be going up against Wade Taylor IV and a physical Aggies frontcourt.
It's also possible Taylor just has one of his games where he's lighting it up with deep 3s, but Mbeng can battle him out front.
This is an ideal opponent for Yale to face in the first round and the door could be left open with Texas A&M scoring droughts and missed free throws.
Results vs. other tourney teams:
- L, 92-84 at Purdue
- W, 74-58 vs. Akron
How an upset happens: Yale stays out of foul trouble, competes on the defensive glass, Poulakidas doesn't have an off day and Texas A&M shoots how it normally shoots from 3.
