We've finally reached the moment all college basketball fans have been dreaming about since last April: Selection Sunday.
It's time for the field of 68.
And we have you covered with live reaction, instant betting analysis, predictions and more during the 2025 NCAA tournament bracket reveal.
First Four
(16) Alabama State vs. (16) St. Francis (PA)
I didn’t see either St Francis (PA) or Alabama State winning the NEC or SWAC, respectively, to reach the Big Dance. They got hot and played their best basketball at the right time, though.
The Hornets of Alabama State are slight favorites, and I like them to win. Coach Tony Madlock’s team is elite in the turnover battle, giving the ball away just 13% of the time and taking it away 18% of the time.
That’ll be a huge benefit for Alabama State against a Red Flash team that needed two miracle fouls in the final seconds of games to reach the NEC finals and scored 46 points in the title game.
I have zero faith in the Red Flash’s offense, as they rely on 3s (41% of their shots from deep) and connect on 33% of them. But they’ll surely lose the shot-volume battle due to turnovers.
Plus, I like the Hornets guards — Amarr Knox, CJ Hines and TJ Madlock are all terrific pieces who average 10-plus PPG. Give me Alabama State.
(11) San Diego State vs. (11) UNC
Wow, the committee did it. They put in North Carolina despite a 1-12 Q1 record.
SDSU is the sixth-best transition defense in the country, and that should come in handy against a Tar Heel squad that looks to run at one of the highest rates in the land.
UNC isn’t a great shooting team and instead looks to attack the rim in isolation and off-ball screens with its talented crop of guards.
SDSU is one of the best interior defensive squads in the country, and the Aztecs have a ton of perimeter size to bother the smaller UNC backcourt.
I have a heavy early lean toward SDSU. Hopefully UNC takes a little coin and pushes this spread out to +3 or beyond.
(16) American vs. (16) Mount St. Mary's
American somehow flew under the radar all season in the Patriot League despite sitting atop the standings for long stretches.
Conventional wisdom said Colgate, long the power of the conference, would return to form and take over. If not the Raiders, maybe Bucknell, in the first year of a new coaching regime, would return to its perch atop the league from earlier this century.
Meanwhile, American has the single most continuous roster from last season, loaded with seniors and super-seniors who have played together in the nation’s capital for years. That proved helpful, leading the Eagles to the Patriot League crown.
In Dayton, American gets a Mount St. Mary’s team with a fatal flaw — turnovers. The Mountaineers cough up the rock at the sixth-highest rate in the nation. Mount St. Mary’s posts 15 turnovers per game, topping 20 turnovers on four occasions.
American isn’t exactly designed to win by forcing turnovers, but the Eagles do so at the Patriot League’s highest rate. The Eagles won the turnover battle in 10 of their last 11 games and could set themselves up for a trip to the Round of 64 by doing so again in Dayton.
(11) Texas vs. (11) Xavier
A rematch of the 2023 Sweet 16 game that helped Rodney Terry earn the full-time head coaching job at Texas, this game could end up being a full-circle moment for Terry’s tenure in Austin, as rumors about his job security have been rampant in recent weeks.
Texas is hyper-reliant on the individual creation and shotmaking of Tre Johnson, Jordan Pope, Tramon Mark and Arthur Kaluma.
Johnson is a future NBA player with an ability to make impossible jumpers, but the Longhorn offense can go cold for long stretches because it doesn’t generate efficient shots. The Longhorns rank 350th nationally in Rim & 3 Rate, per ShotQuality.
The Musketeers, meanwhile, have a brilliant group of guards as well.
Ryan Conwell exploded for 38 points in a Big East Tournament quarterfinal loss to Marquette, and Dayvion McKnight, Dante Maddox Jr. and Marcus Foster can all get hot for stretches, as well.
Plus, Xavier has an element that Texas lacks: a go-to interior scorer in sixth-year senior Zach Freemantle.
Ultimately, I’m riding with the coaching edge on the Xavier side, as I believe Sean Miller and Freemantle exact some revenge for the disappointing loss two years ago. At a spread around -1.5 or -2, give me the Musketeers.
East Region
(1) Duke vs. (16) American/Mount St. Mary's
The obvious big question here is the availability of Duke’s superstar freshman Cooper Flagg. He left the ACC Tournament after injuring his ankle, missing the final two games of the Blue Devils’ run to the title.
Duke reportedly informed the selection committee that Flagg would be available for the NCAA Tournament. That report did not state if he would be ready for the opening round.
Given Duke’s place as a top seed and the way the Devils played in the ACC Tournament final against Louisville without Flagg, it’s hard to see a good reason why Flagg should suit up for a game against either American or Mount St. Mary’s.
This is March and bad, bad things happen to teams that take their opening round opponent lightly, yet it’s hard to think Duke would not be heavily favored and win easily against either potential opponent.
Even if Flagg suits up, you’d expect him to play limited minutes.
No part of me is suggesting that a Flagg-free Duke is at risk of losing, or even not covering, its first-round game, but for any futures or tournament-long prop bets, Flagg’s status is noteworthy.
(8) Mississippi State vs. (9) Baylor
Two teams that faded in league play square off in a quintessential No. 8 vs. No. 9 game.
Chris Jans’ Bulldogs are more than familiar with this positioning, having landed on the same seed line last year.
Both teams have extremely explosive scoring backcourts. Josh Hubbard is a walking fireball for Mississippi State, and his supporting cast has helped make this a top-25 offense nationally, per KenPom.
Baylor, meanwhile, is almost all made up of guards after an injury to center Josh Ojianwuna. Rob Wright, Jeremy Roach, Jayden Nunn and VJ Edgecombe can each erupt on any given night, and the Bears’ small-ball lineups have struggled to get stops.
I’m looking at the over here, as both guard groups will struggle to corral each other. The tempo could be slow — Baylor’s lack of depth has forced that change — but efficiency could be very high.
(5) Oregon vs. (12) Liberty
One thing jumps off the page about this matchup: the location. Liberty, located in Virginia, will need to board a plane and head all the way across the country to face Oregon in nearby Seattle.
Beyond the travel effects for the Flames, the building will be packed with Ducks fans in a home atmosphere not often seen for a 5-seed.
The biggest factor on the court will be both teams’ effectiveness from beyond the arc. Liberty ranks in the top 10 nationally in 3-point shooting percentage offensively and allowed while playing a slow-paced attack. That glacial tempo will cap the sample size of Oregon’s physical advantages and put the Ducks in major liberty of living or dying with each team’s shooting luck.
Inside the 3-point line, Oregon should have a major advantage, with 7-footer Nate Bittle proving to be too much for Liberty.
(4) Arizona vs. (13) Akron
The Arizona Wildcats enter the tournament riding high despite dropping the Big 12 Tournament final to Houston. The Wildcats showed they are among the nation's top teams and will be a threat to come out of this region.
As for how they’ll match up against the Akron Zips, well, this game is going to be fast. The Zips are 19th in adjusted tempo, and the Wildcats are not far behind in 52nd.
The tempo may only amplify the Wildcats’ advantages here. Their size and athleticism will play a huge role on the glass while maintaining control of the paint on both ends of the floor.
There will be upsets in the first round, but you will not find one here.
(6) BYU vs. (11) VCU
The committee couldn’t have given BYU a worse matchup. The Cougars, who finished with a 24-9 record, get to face VCU, a top-30 team in KenPom.
I like the Rams here. One reason is that BYU struggles with turnovers. The Cougars’ high-octane offense gives the ball away 17% of the time.
Plus, Egor Demin typically looks lost against pressure, and VCU thrives on turnovers.
VCU’s guards are tremendous, too. All four of Max Shulga, Zeb Jackson, Phillip Russell and Joe Bamisile can overwhelm BYU’s less athletic backcourt.
(3) Wisconsin vs. (14) Montana
Montana is the weakest of the No. 14 seeds, according to average power rankings, and it got a tough draw here in the Wisconsin Badgers.
The Big Sky Tournament champs have shown they can fill it up from inside the arc, but doing so against the Badgers will be a tough task.
Wisconsin is coming off a tremendous season where its gritty play in the Big Ten allowed it to rise through the best its conference had to offer.
Its ability to do the little things right, such as take care of the ball and excel at the stripe while also having a stud in John Tonje, should lead it past the Grizzlies and deep into this region.
(7) Saint Mary's vs. (10) Vanderbilt
I find this to be one of the more interesting matchups in the Round of 64. Vanderbilt limped into the dance, dropping three straight games but did enough to earn a 10-seed.
Remember when Drake beat Vanderbilt? This game feels similar. The Commodores played right into the hands of the deliberate-paced Bulldogs. I think the Gaels do the same thing.
The biggest edge for Randy Bennett’s squad is on the glass. The Gaels grab offensive rebounds boards on 40% of their misses, which ranks second nationally. Meanwhile, Vanderbilt ranks outside the top 120 in defensive rebound rate.
In this contrasting style matchup, it’ll likely come down to which team controls the tempo. I think Saint Mary’s will crush Vandy in the shot-volume battle, thus leading to drawn-out possessions.
Give me the Gaels laying the points.
(2) Alabama vs. (15) Robert Morris
Alabama is going to blast Robert Morris regardless of Grant Nelson’s health. The Colonials have played one top-120 team all season (West Virginia), and they lost by 28 points.
The Tide’s speed and athleticism will simply be too much for an RMU squad that used those two attributes to its advantage in the Horizon.
RMU exerted its will on the glass in the Horizon against smaller, weaker, and less athletic teams that could not match up. Alabama has size, strength, and athleticism in spades.
RMU is just so-so defending transition, and it hasn’t seen anywhere close to the level of transition Alabama can rain down on it. This should be an easy 20-plus point win for the Tide.
South Region
(1) Auburn vs. (16) Alabama State/St. Francis (PA)
Given the status of the Tigers as the top overall seed, it would feel a bit crazy to evaluate their chances of getting challenged by either of the 16 seeds they could face next weekend.
In reality, Auburn will be a massive favorite, with a good chance to cover even a ridiculously large spread.
Auburn played four games this season against teams ranked lower than 230th by KenPom. Auburn won all four of those games by an average margin of 41.3 points. Only Monmouth was able to stay within 30 points, though Auburn led that game by 38 before sending in reserves from the bench.
In general, Bruce Pearl is not one to play with his food. In his career, as favorite of 21 or more points, Pearl’s team are 12-6-1 ATS.
(8) Louisville vs. (9) Creighton
The Louisville Cardinals seem a bit underseeded here. Many bracketologists placed Louisville in the 6-7 seed range, but the committee didn’t respect the ACC, it seems.
The Cardinals are a heavy-volume 3-point shooting team (48% of their shots come from deep). But they struggle shooting, connecting on only 33% of shots from deep. We’ll see if Reyne Smith — their best shooter — returns after missing the ACC Tournament.
It’ll be interesting to see how stud point guard Chucky Hepburn attacks Creighton’s drop coverage defense, with 7-foot-1 anchor Ryan Kalkbrenner sitting in the paint.
Overall, I like Creighton here. The Bluejays deploy a similar offensive attack with an emphasis on shooting 3s (48% of their shots from deep). They convert on 33.9% of their 3s, led by point guard Steven Ashworth.
I can’t see Louisville containing Kalkbrenner. He’s the difference-maker here. Louisville relies on athletic 6-foot-11 center James Scott, and he’ll struggle to contain the veteran, Kalkbrenner.
Give me the Jays
(5) Michigan vs. (12) UC San Diego
This is an absolute smash spot for the Tritons here.
Michigan, coming off of a tiring four days in Indianapolis, will undoubtedly have some fatigue against a scorching red-hot UC San Diego team out of the Big West. Michigan has compiled 12 (!) wins by four points or less throughout the regular season. The Wolverines are a ticking time bomb in my eyes, and the Tritons will most likely be my favorite bet of the Round of 64.
Tritons +3.5 has popped up at a couple of shops already, and I will happily snag that now with some additional sprinkling on the moneyline.
-John Feltman
(4) Texas A&M vs. (13) Yale
The Yale Bulldogs will be a trendy upset pick. They dominated the Ivy League this season, en route to a 13-1 regular season record and two victories in Ivy Madness to punch the conference’s ticket to the Big Dance.
Yale pulls a matchup against a tough opponent from the SEC in the Texas A&M Aggies, yet the Bulldogs will have a puncher’s chance.
A&M’s offense is exclusively dependent on dominating the glass. The Aggies shot the 317th-best 3-point percentage nationally this season, adding just the 293rd-ranked 2-point percentage. The Aggies get their shots blocked at the highest rate in college basketball, 364th in the country.
Yale does a solid job both defending the rim and protecting the glass. The Bulldogs rank 22nd nationally in defensive rebounding rate.
Against power conference foes, Yale had mixed results. The Bulldogs allowed Purdue to nab just five offensive boards, but surrendered 17 to Minnesota.
That stat could decide this matchup unless Yale hotshot John Poulakidas catches fire again.
(6) Ole Miss vs. (11) San Diego State/UNC
I think the NCAA Selection Committee did Ole Miss a favor here. I don’t trust either North Carolina or San Diego State. The Aztecs have a very poor offense and North Carolina is bad defensively, so it’ll be a doozy of a First Four battle.
My gut says North Carolina wins in the First Four matchup, so I’ll be assuming this game is UNC versus Ole Miss.
I’d be looking at taking the over here. The Tar Heels are 67th in Bart Torvik’s defensive efficiency since February 1 and Ole Miss is 82nd. Meanwhile, Ole Miss is 20th in offensive efficiency and North Carolina is 14th.
The Tar Heels are shooting the ball well, connecting on 41% from deep in their last 13 games. Ole Miss isn’t shooting it well lately, but it should live at the foul line with burly wings Matthew Murrell and Dre Davis posing huge matchup advantages for the Rebels.
I lean towards North Carolina winning here since Ole Miss is an awful defense and struggles shooting, but I see a shootout coming.
(3) Iowa State vs. (14) Lipscomb
Iowa State is a hell of a team, but the fact that Keshon Gilbert will be out moving forward is enough to at least consider the ‘dog in the first-round tilt. It also helps Lipscomb is arguably one of the best 14-seeds of all time as a top-85 team in KenPom that can shoot the crap out of the ball.
The Bisons did fail both of their power-conference tests in the non-con, but losing at Kentucky and at Arkansas is nothing to sneeze at. ISU isn’t quite as overwhelmingly athletic as those two squads, good news for the athletically-challenged Bisons.
Lipscomb can shoot, and that’s basically the only way you can score consistently against the Clones.
Lennie Acuff’s offense is a symphony of gorgeous motion filled with cutting and screening. He has four or five guys on the floor that can shoot the 3 at all times. Iowa State packs it in, and their on-ball havoc won’t bother the steady-handed Lipscomb guards who lead the Bisons’ No. 22-ranked turnover rate.
Lipscomb can hang around in this game — especially with Gilbert out.
(7) Marquette vs. (10) New Mexico
One of the best one-on-one matchups you will find in the entirety of the first round pits Marquette point guard Kam Jones against New Mexico floor leader Donovan Dent. The two All-Americans have their fingerprints over every part of their teams’ success, and both rank in the top 25 nationally in assist rate.
Thanks to those two taking care of the rock plus pressure defenses, both teams are accustomed to winning the turnover battle. Thus, the matchup will likely be decided by whoever can outduel the other in that department.
For that reason, I’m expecting Marquette to pick up a big victory here. The Golden Eagles have gone toe-to-toe with another pressure team, St. John’s, twice in the last two weeks.
New Mexico, meanwhile, has not faced a team remotely similar to Marquette’s pressure in all of Mountain West play.
Only Utah State ranks in the top 40 of defensive turnover rate, and the Aggies do it via a tricky zone. Marquette, meanwhile, can throw tremendous pressure defenders Chase Ross and Stevie Mitchell at Dent. That could turn the water off for a high-octane New Mexico offense.
(2) Michigan State vs. (15) Bryant
The Bryant Bulldogs aren’t your typical small mid-major team. Phil Martelli Jr.’s squad is the sixth-tallest team in the country, per KenPom. Every player in Bryant’s rotation is 6-foot-5 or taller, so it’ll be an interesting matchup for Tom Izzo’s squad.
I see the Bulldogs covering here. They play a super fast tempo but are so tough to score on with their size. They hold teams to 47% from 2-point and 32% from deep.
The one thing I’m eyeing is Bryant’s elite transition defense. The Spartans love taking advantage of teams in transition, so Bryant sitting in the 80th percentile in transition D is huge.
It’s not like Michigan State is an elite offense, either. It ranks 57th in offensive efficiency since Feb. 1. The poor perimeter-shooting Spartans will have to shoot it better against Bryant’s tough rim defense.
Keep an eye on 6-foot-6 point guard Earl Timberlake. He’ll defend Jase Richardson and control Bryant’s offense. He’s the piece that’ll dictate if the Bulldogs keep this game close or not.
Midwest Region
(1) Houston vs. (16) SIU Edwardsville
No high-major team brutalizes mid-majors more than the Houston Cougars. They only beat one mid-major by less than 29 points in five games — and that was Sun Belt title winner, Troy.
Houston’s defensive pressure (20% turnover rate) and dominance on the offensive glass (36% offensive rebound rate) present the perfect formula to cover this big spread.
We’ll see if J’Wan Roberts suits up here after he missed the Big 12 Tournament with a leg injury. Even if Roberts is out, Houston will still dominate here with Ja’Vier Francis and JoJo Tugler’s hunger for offensive boards.
Don’t sleep on Houston’s guard play, either. The emergence of Milos Uzan next to sharpshooters LJ Cryer and Emanuel Sharp makes this Houston team the most complete during Kevin Sampson’s tenure.
Meanwhile, SIUE represents the Ohio Valley Conference for its first-ever NCAA Tournament bid.
The Cougars played just two high-majors this year and got steamrolled in both, losing 90-58 to Illinois and 80-61 to Indiana.
SIUE prides itself on defense. It holds teams to just 47% shooting from inside the arc and has solid size for a school in the OVC. The athletic 6-foot-9 Ring Malith is huge for SIUE, but his wiry frame will get him in foul trouble.
I’m expecting a 30-plus point win for Houston.
(8) Gonzaga vs. (9) Georgia
Congratulations to top-seeded Houston. Your potential second-round matchup could be KenPom’s ninth-ranked team, the Gonzaga Bulldogs.
The Zags don’t have the resume they’ve built in prior years, even with the West Coast Conference playing some of its best collective basketball in years, yet Gonzaga once again has the talent of a power conference program. Gonzaga played six power-conference opponents, winning just twice. All four losses, however, came by six points or fewer or in overtime.
The Bulldogs will face, well, more Bulldogs.
Mike White’s Georgia team survived the gauntlet, with impressive wins over St. John’s, Florida, and Kentucky this season.
The X-factor may come in the turnover margin. The Zags are a top-five team in avoiding turnovers, while Georgia ranks 291st in that statistic. If this Gonzaga offense, which is both efficient and high-powered, gets a significant number of extra possessions, the Zags will take full advantage.
(5) Clemson vs. (12) McNeese
Clemson’s reward for its highest seed since 2018 is a very capable McNeese team, led by former LSU coach Will Wade. McNeese has lost just one game since Christmas, absolutely cruising through the Southland Conference.
In the Cowboys’ chances against top competition this season, they’ve put up quite a fight. McNeese lost to Alabama by just eight points in Tuscaloosa and Mississippi State by just three points (on semi-neutral court in Tupelo).
This game should have one of the first round’s lowest totals, thanks to two slowly-paced teams.
If anything, that cracks the door even wider for a McNeese upset win, lowering the sample size of the game and letting a hot shooting night take on an outsized effect.
Last season, when McNeese was roughly the same caliber of team as a 12-seed, the Cowboys lost to a run-and-gun Gonzaga team by 20 plus. The nature of this game with Clemson should play more into the Cowboys’ hands.
(4) Purdue vs. (13) High Point
America, get ready to meet Cinderella. The High Point Panthers boast all the qualities needed to make a deep March run, and it begins with this matchup.
High Point isn’t just an elite mid-major offense. It’s one of the best offensive teams in America, ranking 32nd in Torvik’s offensive efficiency since Feb. 1. It’s very efficient, shooting a dazzling 59% from the field, led by Kezza Giffa, who loves to attack the hoop.
As we saw in the Big South championship game, High Point is fully capable of dipping into its second unit. The Panthers have a rotation with 11 legitimate impactful players, and Alan Huss isn’t scared to bench the starters if the bench is out-performing them.
I don’t trust High Point’s defense, as it sits 173rd in defensive efficiency since Feb. 11. The Panthers have a fairly basic drop-coverage scheme with 7-footer Juslin Bodo Bodo floating around the paint. However, the back-to-back Big South DPOY is an eraser down low, and he leads the nation in offensive rebounding rate.
Meanwhile, Purdue is one of the worst teams in America at defending the rim. Since Feb. 1, Purdue is the second-worst team in America in 2-point field goal percentage. The Panthers will thrash this turnstile defense.
(6) Illinois vs. (11) Texas/Xavier
Texas is well-equipped to face good teams, as it reeled in seven Quad 1 wins, which vaulted it into the field of 68. However, I don’t think the Longhorns get past Xavier.
I’m glad the Musketeers snuck into the dance because they’re the scariest bubble team. Sean Miller’s squad is the 24th-best team in America since Feb. 1, winning eight of its 10 games in that stretch.
That number ranks ahead of Illinois by 17 spots!
The Illini have endured some serious regression, ranking 155th in defensive efficiency over their past 10 games. They never turn teams over (10.9% turnover rate) in that span and allow teams to shoot 41% from deep.
That’s a recipe for disaster against Xavier, which is led by sharpshooting guard Ryan Conwell. He erupted in the Big East Tournament against Marquette, and his smooth shooting stroke will lead Xavier to a win over Illinois.
(3) Kentucky vs. (14) Troy
This matchup is fantastic for the underdog Troy Trojans.
They have one of the best on-ball defenders in the country in Tayton Conerway, who ranked third nationally in steal rate, per KenPom. The Trojans press at a top-30 rate nationally, per Synergy, and they can really take teams out of their comfort zones.
Kentucky, meanwhile, is without Kerr Kriisa and Jaxson Robinson, and starting point guard Lamont Butler’s health is a major question mark. The Wildcats have looked vulnerable without their floor leader at times this season, and his absence would be especially harmful against Troy.
On the other end, Troy’s biggest weakness is its own sloppiness, ranking 333rd in turnover rate per KenPom. UK’s hyper-conservative drop defense does not force miscues, though, so Troy will not get punished for its sloppiness.
Kentucky will also not take advantage of Troy’s shaky defensive rebounding. With multiple key matchup edges, I think the Trojans can hang around here.
(7) UCLA vs. (10) Utah State
I touched on a team trending in the wrong direction a few sections above — another team trending downward is Utah State.
The Aggies defense ranks outside the top 200 in defensive efficiency since Feb. 1, and Colorado State schooled them in the Mountain West Tournament semifinals.
It’ll be interesting to see how UCLA attacks the various weird zones Jerrod Calhoun throws out. Some teams might fall prey to turnovers when the Aggies get some pressure on the ball, but UCLA rarely turns it over.
The Bruins will likely feed their effective scoring forwards, Tyler Bilodeau, Eric Dailey Jr., as well as 7-foot-3 mammoth Aday Mara.
Utah State allows teams to shoot over 56% from inside the arc, which should allow the Bruins to feast at the hoop.
The only saving grace for Utah State is shooting. The Aggies need strong performances from Mason Falslev and Ian Martinez, and guards Drake Allen and Deyton Albury to handle UCLA’s on-ball pressure, or this one could get ugly.
I like UCLA -4.5.
(2) Tennessee vs. (15) Wofford
Tennessee comes into the NCAA Tournament as the top defensive team in the country, and its play on that end of the floor should propel it not only past Wofford but deep into this region.
Kentucky looms as a potential kryptonite for the Vols, but the Wildcats present an efficient uptempo style that Wofford does not.
Wofford is one of the slowest teams in the nation by adjusted tempo, and the last thing an opponent should do is let the Vols defend in a half-court set all game long.
Expect the Vols to be in complete control as they advance to the Round of 32.
West Region
(1) Florida vs. (16) Norfolk State
The smart money is typically on Florida. No high-major team covered the spread more than the Gators, who covered in 26 of their 34 games.
I don’t see any Kyle O’Quinn Norfolk State magic here. I like Norfolk State’s guards — Brian Moore Jr. and Christian Ings — but Florida will bully the Spartans on the glass.
The Gators grab offensive rebounds on 38% of their offensive possessions. Plus, they shoot over 35% from deep, which is a major plus against a Norfolk State team that yields plenty of 3-point attempts.
We saw the Gators’ dominance in the SEC Tournament. With guards Walter Clayton Jr and Alijah Martin playing well, it’ll be a cover for Florida in the Round of 64.
(8) UConn vs. (9) Oklahoma
Danny Hurley likely didn’t expect his team’s march toward a 3rd consecutive national title to happen with an “8” etched next to their name. Given the way his team has played at time’s this season, however, that seed is completely appropriate. This UConn team has far less top-end talent than the past two and it’s shown – especially on the defensive end of the floor.
Connecticut blocks a ton of shots, the most per game in the country, yet has a tendency to get overaggressive and foul. The Huskies rank 333rd in free-throw rate allowed this season.
Enter Oklahoma, a team that loves to find its way to the charity stripe. The Sooners rank 29th nationally in free-throw rate offensively, taking 22 freebies per game and sinking them at a top-10 percentage nationally.
It feels like a sick trick played by the basketball gods, but Danny Hurley’s fate in the first round of this tournament may hinge on how the officials call this game. That’s also worth monitoring from a live betting perspective. If things are whistled tight early, that favors the Sooners.
(5) Memphis vs. (12) Colorado State
If you’re wondering how teams like Louisville got bounced down the seed line, Memphis might be your culprit. Bracket Matrix had the Tigers as an 8-seed prior to their AAC Tournament win on Sunday.
Yet this season, the AAC offered little resistance. KenPom ranked the AAC as the 10th-best conference in the sport — even behind Conference USA. Memphis will be the league’s lone tournament team, meaning the Tigers have not seen a tournament team since Dec. 28.
Memphis did answer the bell when given the chance. Facing the fourth-best nonconference schedule in the country, per KenPom, Memphis chalked up wins over Missouri, UConn, Michigan State, Clemson and Ole Miss.
Penny Hardaway’s team gets a tough test, a Colorado State team that has won 10 straight, including three in a row to claim the Mountain West Conference Tournament title.
This game will feature one of the first round’s best individual matchups, with Colorado State’s Nique Clifford and Memphis’ PJ Haggerty both topping 19 points per game this season.
(4) Maryland vs. (13) Grand Canyon
Can Grand Canyon do it again? A year after the Antelopes knocked off Saint Mary’s in a 5/12 game, they are back in the NCAA Tournament with another chance at an upset.
Unfortunately for them, Maryland is a vastly different beast than last year’s Gaels.
GCU will not have an athleticism edge like it did last season, when it lived at the free-throw line (36 attempts) and forced 13 SMC turnovers.
Maryland, meanwhile, doesn’t foul (28th in defensive free-throw rate) and takes great care of the ball (23rd in turnover rate).
Plus, the Derik Queen/Julian Reese tandem could overwhelm Grand Canyon’s wings and forwards on the glass; Duke Brennan can only do so much for the Antelopes.
This game could get up and down; both teams rank in the top 60 nationally in KenPom’s adjusted tempo (GCU is 14th). Maryland’s fantastic starting five can thrive in the open court against the Antelopes.
(6) Missouri vs. (11) Drake
Well, this matchup sucks for this Tiger fan. Drake is all the way legit and is 2-0 against power-conference competition this year (Vanderbilt and Kansas State).
It’s a stark contrast of style, with Drake taking the air out of the ball and playing the slowest tempo in the country and Mizzou looking to get out, run and chuck.
Drake’s methodical attack could befuddle a Tiger squad that has had issues getting lost on this end of the floor countless times. Princeton smacked Mizzou two years ago in the Big Dance, and Drake could do the same thing.
The one feather in Mizzou’s cap is its massive athleticism edge. Outside of Cam Manyawu, Drake doesn't have close to the caliber of athletes that permeates throughout Missouri’s roster.
Mizzou could pound the ball inside, harass the excellent Bennett Stirtz as he keys the offense, and outrun the Bulldogs going the other way.
It will take a big game from Mark Mitchell, a competent rotation from Dennis Gates, and a decent shooting day from deep for the Tiger snipers.
Drake plus the points — the Bulldogs are just too good and play too slow to get beat by more than a couple of possessions.
(3) Texas Tech vs. (14) UNC Wilmington
Texas Tech can smash inferior competition; it went 5-2 against the spread against mid-major foes back in November and December.
However, the Red Raiders’ health could hamstring their explosiveness. Critical starters Chance McMillian and Darrion Williams both missed Texas Tech’s Big 12 semifinal loss to Arizona, and both players are critical offensive cogs.
At minimum, UNC Wilmington has the size to compete if TTU is shorthanded. The Seahawks have a two-headed center rotation – featuring 7-foot, 280-pound Harlan Obioha and the more bouncy Khamari McGriff – and outside of tough-minded point guard Donovan Newby, all of their guards are 6-foot-5 or taller.
I’m waiting closer to tip time to bet this game. If at least one of McMillian and Williams is a go, I will lay it with TTU (both would be a bonus). If either is out, though, this is a stay-away.
(7) Kansas vs. (10) Arkansas
These are two teams trending in opposite directions.
Arkansas started SEC play with five straight losses, including a bad loss at LSU. The Hogs rebounded, ultimately winning four of their final five regular season games and working their way from the bubble to safely in the field.
Making matters even better, John Calipari has said publicly that freshman Boogie Fland, previously believed to be lost for the season, will be suiting up for the postseason.
Kansas, on the other hand, was 14-4 with a six-point lead with less than 20 seconds to play in overtime against Houston. The Jayhawks blew that lead and the season took a turn.
Kansas won just one game against a tournament team since that night, in seven chances to do so.
The single most experienced team in college basketball has not played smart basketball. The Jayhawks are three-point hesitant and infrequent visitors to the free throw line, relying on paint scoring.
Strictly by momentum and recent results, you’d lean towards the Hogs. In their careers, Calipari is 7-3 versus Bill Self, but just 4-6 SU.
(2) St. John's vs. (15) Omaha
Rick Pitino and his Big East champion Red Storm pull a fascinating matchup in the first round.
The Johnnies have won games all season long with high-pressure defense that forces turnovers and bad looks at the rim.
On the other end, however, St. John’s doesn’t have the most crisp offense of its own. The Red Storm shoot notably low percentages from all over the floor but hammer the offensive glass at one of the nation’s highest rates.
Omaha’s defense struggled all year long, ranking 252nd in defensive efficiency. The Mavericks did exactly one, and only one, thing well defensively this season: protect the glass.
Omaha is one of the worst defensive teams in so many areas, yet ranks in the top-20 in defensive rebounding.
Keeping this high-energy St. John’s team off the glass be may a greater challenge, or St. John’s could exploit the issues elsewhere in the Omaha defense.
Expect the Johnnies to take care of business, but if the Mavericks hang around, the battle for the boards is likely the reason.
