Does Duke simply roll in the East Region?
I guess it depends if the Blue Devils are healthy. Otherwise, I'm super interested in the high-powered offenses in this region, including VCU, BYU, Wisconsin, Oregon, Arizona, Akron and Alabama.
Let's dive into my 2025 NCAA Tournament East Region preview, including my favorite matchup, top sleeper and info on the favorite.
East Region Favorite
Duke Blue Devils (-125 to Win East Region)
Although it ranks fourth nationally in efficiency, Duke has the nation’s best defense for my money.
The Blue Devils have so much length and switchability.
The entire backcourt stands over 6-foot-5. Sion James, Tyrese Proctor, Mason Gillis, Kon Knueppel and Caleb Foster are four pesty, rangy, physical guards who swallow opposing backcourts off the bounce while ball-stopping wings.
It’s nearly impossible to get to the rim against the Blue Devils with Cooper Flagg and Khaman Maluach swatting and altering shots. Meanwhile, Maliq Brown is one of the nation’s best, most versatile, 6-foot-9 junkyard dog defenders
The Blue Devils are an impossibly good ball-screen coverage and interior defense that can switch everything on the perimeter and deny quality catch-and-shoot opportunities, often forcing opponents into challenging isolation creation.
And — like most Jon Scheyer teams — they’re elite in transition-denial.
I’m a little more iffy on Duke’s offense.
Scheyer often gets bogged down in his methodical motion offense that relies heavily on off-ball stagger screen sets to generate open jumpers, which would be a bad matchup against good drop-coverage defenses that deny those secondary actions.
That said, Duke is a fantastic spacing and shot-making team, with five guys shooting over 34% from deep (Gillis, James, Proctor, Knueppel, Flagg). Ultimately, it’s not a bad offense to run.
Additionally, the Blue Devils are the most efficient roll-man creation team in the nation (1.37 PPP, per Synergy), and they’ve been more willing to get out in transition, which I think is a good idea considering all the talent and athleticism on the squad.
Not to mention, Flagg can get a bucket whenever needed.
They’re also shot-volume monsters. Duke doesn’t turn the ball over, smashes the offensive glass, cleans the defensive glass and doesn’t foul. The Blue Devils rank third nationally in rebounding and turnover differential (+350, per CBB Analytics).
Duke is the rightful favorite in the East Region.
Ultimate Winner of Region
Duke?
If the Blue Devils are healthy, they should roll.
That said, I don’t know what’s going on with Flagg and Brown. Those guys are Duke’s two most switchable defenders, and Flagg is the nation’s most valuable player.
If I had to guess, based on available information, Flagg will likely be back for the first round, while Brown might be out for the entire tournament.
If those two are more injured than expected, I wouldn’t mind taking a shot with Oregon or Wisconsin out of this region.
Dana Altman always puts it together in March, and the Ducks have been playing great ball, winning eight of nine games since February 11 while ranking in the top-25 nationally in Bart Torvik’s efficiency ratings during the stretch (including 15th in defensive efficiency).
Oregon could take advantage of a shorthanded Duke team, especially with how good the Ducks’ drop-coverage and amoeba zone defense is at denying catch-and-shoot opportunities.
Meanwhile, I love the Badgers. Their ball-screen and post-up offense is elite with John Tonje, John Blackwell, Max Klesmit, Steven Crowl and Nolan Winter.
Their two-big drop coverage is beatable over the top, but they’re among the nation’s best rim-denial defenses.
Potential Bracket-Buster
VCU Rams (+4000)
Ryan Odom is one of my favorite coaches, having already busted brackets by leading UMBC over Virginia in 2018 before rebuilding Utah State into a tournament team.
The Rams are a weapon under Odom’s tutelage.
Their press-happy scheme forces turnovers, denies catch-and-shoot opportunities and wreaks havoc against opposing ball-screen operators. Max Shulga is a weapon at the point of attack.
However, VCU can attack opposing ball-handlers because of Luke Bamgboye’s unbelievable rim protection underneath — the 6-foot-10 big man boasts a whopping 15% block rate, the second-highest nationally among qualified players.
The Rams can swarm the perimeter because they back it up with that elite rim protection, leading the nation in at-the-rim points per shot allowed (.92, per Synergy).
Altogether, the Rams lead the nation in effective field goal percentage allowed (44%, per KenPom) and half-court points per possession allowed (.77, per Synergy).
On the other end of the court, Shulga spearheads an up-tempo attack-and-kick offense, with the Rams getting downhill early and often while kicking the ball out to Shulga, Joe Bamisile, Zeb Jackson, Phillip Russell and Jack Clark.
The Rams are excellent in their spacing and shot selection, and they found their shot-making in conference play, shooting 36% from deep from January onward.
The Rams also smash the offensive glass, posting a whopping 40% offensive rebounding rate in A-10 play. Combine that with their press-happy defense, and they’re shot-volume monsters, ranking 16th nationally in field goal attempt differential (+161, per CBB Analytics).
I love Shulga. I love how this team is constructed on both ends. And they’re playing great ball, ranking 17th nationally in Bart Torvik’s efficiency ratings since February 1.
I love VCU’s chances to make a run — if the Rams get past their first-round matchup.
Best Matchup of First Round
VCU vs. BYU
From a schematic perspective, this is a good matchup for the Rams.
BYU runs a pro-style offense centered around playmakers Egor Demin and Dallin Hall, who attack-and-kick to elite shot-makers Richie Saunders, Trevin Knell and Dawson Baker.
However, the Cougars’ half-court offense can get blown up by pressure and physicality, as Demin and Hall can be turnover-prone.
That’s a problem against the Rams’ press-happy scheme, especially when VCU will take away BYU’s precious catch-and-shoot opportunities.
On the other end of the court, BYU’s shifting pack-line and zone defensive schemes keep opponents away from the rim.
However, the Cougars will allow catch-and-shoot opportunities (331st nationally in 3-point rate allowed, 44%, per KenPom), and they’re often weak in transition defense, especially if opponents are turning them over — i.e., VCU will be able to get downhill early and hit kick-outs often.
That said, BYU is still an elite half-court offense that shredded the Big 12.
VCU will face a step up in competition after rolling the A-10, and the Rams didn’t play anyone in the non-conference.
Of greater importance, the Rams will be playing at altitude (Denver) on Thursday after playing three games in three days over the weekend and winning the conference championship on Sunday.
That’s a brutal turnaround exacerbated against a BYU team that lives at 4,700 feet and hasn’t played since losing to Houston last Friday.
This will be a fascinating first-round game.
I think either team can make a deep run, but they must first get past each other.
