The Midwest is the most wide open of the four regions in this year’s NCAA Tournament.
I think the top four seeds are all vulnerable in some fashion or form, including No. 1-seeded Houston, which is dealing with a significant injury to an uber-important big man.
Therefore, I think the Midwest Region is our chance to take a shot, and I’ve got one team I’m eyeing. So, read below for my 2025 NCAA Tournament Midwest Region preview.
Midwest Region Favorite
Houston Cougars (+105 to Make Final Four)
Kelvin Sampson has again coached Houston to a No. 1 overall seed, the program’s third consecutive.
In many ways, these are the same old Cougars. They’re still an elite ball-screen blitz defense with top-20 marks nationally in block rate (16%), steal rate (13%) and turnover rate (22%). They still have nasty point-of-attack defenders and athletic swarming-and-scrambling big men protecting the rim.
That said, this year’s team feels slightly different on the other end of the court.
Houston is still slightly limited offensively because the Cougars are so dribble-creation and post-feed reliant.
That said, the Cougars are a legit 40% 3-point shooting team — albeit on low volume — with three of the nation’s best marksmen in LJ Cryer, Milos Uzan and Emanuel Sharp.
Uzan might be becoming the primary creator the Cougars need — like what Jamal Shead was last year.
He’s a lights-out ball-screen operator (1.01 PPP, 82nd percentile, per Synergy) who can distribute (four assists per game), shoot (43% from deep) and drop 20 on any given night — he went for 25/8/4 in the Big 12 Tournament title game against Arizona.
Of course, the J’Wan Roberts injury is problematic. If he’s not 100%, it breaks this bracket wide open.
Ultimate Winner of Region
Xavier Musketeers (+12000)
I’m calling my shot in the Midwest.
Auburn, Florida and Duke might be too dominant for any lower seed to break through in those regions. But in this one, Houston is banged up, Tennessee is limited offensively and Kentucky and Purdue are limited defensively.
If Xavier gets past Texas — which I expect it to — I think the Musketeers make a deep run.
They’re a top-10 off-the-dribble offense with a bevy of tough shot-makers, including Dayvion McKnight, Dailyn Swain, Marcus Foster and Ryan Conwell. They’re elite in transition and can run plenty of dribble handoff or post-up sets through Zach Freemantle.
They’re limited defensively, but their drop-coverage scheme is relatively efficient in rim-and-3 and catch-and-shoot denial, and they’re great on the defensive boards, which is a rock-solid low-variance scheme.
The Musketeers also enter March Madness in great form. They won their final seven regular-season games and rank eighth nationally in Bart Torvik’s efficiency metric during the stretch, with a top-25 offense and defense.
They can shred Illinois’ drop coverage off the bounce, as they did against every drop scheme in the Big East this season, scoring over 1.1 PPP in nine of 10 tries, per Matthew Winick of Staring At The Floorboards.
And it’s super easy to scout the Illini on the other end, where they run endless ball screens and fire up triples despite making just 30% of them.
From there, I believe Xavier has the offensive firepower to hang with anyone, including Kentucky in the Round of 32 and Tennessee in the Sweet 16.
Anything can happen in the Regional Final, but I’m willing to take a risk with the red-hot, uber-dangerous, built-for-March Musketeers.
Potential Bracket-Buster
Xavier Musketeers (+12000 to Win Midwest Region)
See above.
I’m going to look really stupid when Texas wins by 20 on Wednesday night.
I think Xavier gets the job done, though.
Best Matchup of First Round
High Point vs. Purdue
If you like offense, this is the game for you.
