I have revealed my initial 2025 NCAA Tournament bracket, but there are changes that will be made along the way. What won’t change: I have the Florida Gators cutting down the nets.
My projections are a big part of my process. I’ve calculated how likely it is for every team to advance to every round of March Madness.
Download Koerner’s custom bracket builder.
East Region
There’s a clear favorite in this region. I have it as a 55.7% chance that Duke will advance to the Final Four, and there’s a 71.9% chance that it will at least play in the Elite Eight.
Alabama has a 15% chance to make the Final Four, but that’s the only other team in the region with a double-digit-percent chance.
West Region
While I have Florida winning the national title, I have the Gators with a lower chance of making it out of their region than Duke. Per my numbers, Florida has a 49.3% chance of making the Final Four.
St. John’s is second at 16.2%, but Texas Tech isn’t far behind at 11.1%.
South Region
This region is a bit more competitive since Auburn only has a 42% chance of making the Final Four as the No. 1 seed.
I have Michigan State with a 20.6% chance of making the Final Four, and Iowa State is at 10.5% as the No. 3 seed.
Midwest Region
My Midwest projections definitely stand out.
I have Houston with a 38.6% chance of making the Final Four and Tennessee at 22.8%. No. 3 seed Kentucky is at 5.4%.
I have the No. 8-seed Gonzaga Bulldogs with an 11.6% chance of making the Final Four. Gonzaga is one of the best No. 8 seeds in recent memory, and I think it has a great chance of taking down Houston in the second round.
For all of my NCAA Tournament projections, keep scrolling down.
