It’s time for March Madness and for our NCAA Tournament bracket picks.
There are two main variables I consider before picking a team to advance:
- My projected odds of that team advancing through each round are based on 10,000 simulations run using my custom team ratings.
- The average percentage of users who have that team advancing on ESPN and Yahoo!
With those factors, I create a leverage score for every team to get a sense of which schools the market is overrating or underrating. The goal is to maximize our leverage score while building a bracket.
The leverage score equation: my projected odds minus the percentage of users picking a team.
In order to fully utilize the leverage score, I have created a tool that provides you with all the necessary data for every possible matchup. To download my 2025 NCAA Tournament Bracket Builder, click here.
The point of being in a huge, top-heavy payout pool is to go against the grain, which is what I do here but in a sharp way.
Using my strategy, the bracket can be really bad when it's bad. When it's good, though, it's really good. My brackets have finished in the 95th percentile in two of the last four years, and that's where you want to be to get paid in your pool. The 60th percentile likely wins $0 from just picking chalk, so let's aim higher.
Before you dive into the picks, I want to note that you should check this page again on Wednesday night before you lock in your picks. There’s a chance that based on the results of games on Tuesday and Wednesday some of my picks will change. I will note in my breakdowns below which games those are.
Also, the graphic you see at the top of each region is each team's leverage score to advance from that round.
2025 NCAA Tournament Bracket Picks
East Region
Round of 64
Luckily, I don't have to wait to see which team Duke plays to make this pick.
Mississippi State is a slight 1.5-point favorite, but only 44% of users are picking them. That means the Bulldogs offer a +10% leverage score, making them a strong value play.
I agree with Oregon as a six-point favorite, but 82% of users are backing them. That gives Liberty a +14% leverage score.
Liberty is an elite shooting team but struggles at the free-throw line, where Oregon doesn’t foul often, creating a sneaky edge for Liberty. However, the Flames' reliance on the 3-pointer increases variance, which works in their favor as underdogs.
I’m rolling with Liberty as an upset pick.
Arizona is a 13.5-point favorite and offers a +5% leverage score. Since this is a case of getting a positive leverage score on the most likely outcome, Arizona is an auto-play.
This is a tight 6 vs. 11 matchup with BYU as 3.5-point favorites. While I agree with that line, 68% of users are on BYU, making VCU’s +10% leverage score tempting.
When BYU has possession, it’ll be a strength-on-strength battle with BYU ranking seventh in effective FG% against VCU's No. 1-ranked defensive eFG% in the country (44.4%). The Rams also force teams to the free-throw line, where BYU struggles.
This sets up nicely for a VCU upset, and I’m taking them here.
No need to overthink this one. Wisconsin is a heavy favorite and offers a slight +3% leverage score, so it's an easy pick.
Saint Mary’s offers +12% leverage here but more importantly, it has a 14%+ leverage score in the next round if it upsets Alabama. This makes the Gaels a strong long-term play, so I’m taking Saint Mary’s here.
Alabama’s fast pace creates more possessions, which amplifies its advantage in a mismatch like this one. No reason to overthink it.
Round of 32
Duke would be around 12-point favorites here, the largest spread of any No. 1 seed's second-round matchup. The Blue Devils are an easy pick to advance.
Arizona offers a +9% leverage score and as the most likely outcome, the Wildcats are an auto-pick for me to reach the Sweet 16.
VCU presents a +9% leverage score, making the Rams an interesting upset option. However, Wisconsin advances 54% of the time in my model and offers leverage against Alabama next round. I’ll roll with the Badgers here.
This is a classic tempo clash between one of the slowest-paced teams in the country and one of the fastest.
Alabama would be just favored by about 4.5 points, but 86% of users are picking it. The Tide's volatility makes them a great team to fade. Its reliance on outside shooting creates a wide range of outcomes. Saint Mary’s thrives on interior scoring, which could be the best way to attack Alabama and gives the Gaels a high floor.
Given these factors, Saint Mary’s is the sharp play.
Sweet 16
If you’re filling out a bracket that doesn’t have Duke winning it all, this is a key spot to consider knocking them out.
For my main bracket, though, I’m advancing Duke as one of my two No. 1 seeds in the Final Four.
Cooper Flagg (arguably the best player in the country) is expected to return from his ankle injury. Duke has an easy opening weekend, meaning Flagg might not have to play heavy minutes in his return to ensure he’s closer to 100% for the second weekend.
If Flagg is back closer to 100% by this point, Duke will be that much more likely to advance.
Most brackets will have Alabama advancing to the Elite Eight so if this matchup happens, we’re already gaining a major edge on the field.
The sharp play is to advance Wisconsin since it still provides leverage if Saint Mary’s falls short against Alabama, giving Wisconsin a chance to pull the upset instead.
While Alabama advancing to the Elite Eight is the most likely outcome, I think the market is overlooking Wisconsin’s chances. It would be easy to just take the favorite in every matchup, but the key to winning your bracket is knowing where to be contrarian. This is the best spot in the region to do so.
Elite Eight
Duke carries a -8% leverage score to advance to the Final Four, but it remains one of the clear favorites to win it all.
Duke's path sets them up for a deep run, and Flagg’s health will improve as the tournament progresses, making them even stronger by this stage. The Blue Devils are the most-picked team to win it all so if you don’t have them as your champ, you’ll have a major edge over the field if they fall short.
Therefore, you don’t have to go nuts and have Duke getting knocked out early to be contrarian. If you simply don’t have them winning it all, that should be contrarian enough.
West Region
Round of 64
About 2% of users are content taking a zero here on Norfolk State.
This is a tough call. Oklahoma matches up well against UConn and offers 6% leverage, but I still lean toward the Huskies to survive.
Since I plan on Florida eliminating the winner next round, I’m not sweating this pick and may revisit it after further research.
Colorado State is the hottest team in the country and has a +29% leverage score. Despite being 2.5-point favorites, only 29% of users are picking them, which makes this a no-brainer leverage play for my bracket strategy.
Maryland is a dangerous No. 4 seed, and Grand Canyon is a dangerous No. 13 seed, so it’s unfortunate they face off early. Since many brackets have Memphis going to the Sweet 16, taking Maryland here creates strong leverage for the next round. That said, I wouldn’t be shocked if Grand Canyon pulls off the upset.
Drake is a trendy upset pick, but Missouri is still favored to win about 70% of the time. With only 60% of users picking them, we get a +10% leverage score on the most likely outcome. That makes this an easy call to take Missouri.
Texas Tech has dealt with injuries, but Chance McMillian and Darrion Williams are expected to return for the tournament. The Red Raiders are 15.5-point favorites and hold better odds (+500) to win the region than No. 2-seed St. John’s (+600), which shows their strength as a No. 3 seed.
As of Monday night, 64% of users were on Kansas, but I have them closer to a 70% chance to advance. As always, when there’s a positive leverage score on the most likely outcome, I’ll take it. I'm going with Kansas here.
This wraps up a fairly chalky round in this region. Given how many users expect chaos here, though, playing it straight actually creates contrarian value. Most of the leverage in this region will come in the later rounds.
Round of 32
I have Florida as a near double-digit favorite and plan on it making a deep run in my bracket.
Most users still have Memphis advancing here, which is wild and gives us huge leverage if this matchup happens.
I like Colorado State, but Maryland has been the better team all season and enters the tournament red-hot. I expect Maryland to be favored by about five points, so I’ll advance them here.
Missouri would be a solid upset pick since Texas Tech might only be favored by 2-3 points.
However, my real leverage play in this region is fading St. John’s early, so I want to maximize their difficulty in advancing. That means taking Texas Tech here.
The larger your pool, the more it makes sense to pick Kansas here. St. John’s is a vulnerable No. 2 seed, and fading them in the next round or two is a solid strategy.
That said, I’m not fading Rick Pitino just yet. I'm advancing St. John’s for now but likely eliminate it next round.
Sweet 16
This is one of the most critical matchups in the region for bracket strategy.
Maryland offers a strong +11% leverage score, and Florida has the second-highest leverage (+2.5%) to win it all, which is the most important pick of your entire bracket.
Since I plan on Florida winning the title, I have to pass on the leverage here and advance it. However, if you’re making multiple brackets, this is a great pivot spot to take Maryland in non-Florida-winning entries.
Having a coach like Pitino will certainly help St. John’s navigate the early rounds, but this is where things could get dicey.
This should be a coin-flip matchup, but 67% of users are backing St. John’s, which is way too high given how close this game likely is. Texas Tech has the second-best odds to win the region and while that doesn’t guarantee an Elite Eight appearance, it reinforces them as the sharp play here.
Elite Eight
Similar to my Sweet 16 decision between Florida and Maryland, I’m willing to eat the -5% leverage score on Florida here because I have the Gators winning it all.
While this region played out fairly chalky, that was intentional. We gained leverage along the way by making sharp picks. Plus, if Texas Tech makes it this far, it gives us a leg up on all the brackets that had St. John’s advancing to the Elite Eight or beyond.
At this stage, your championship pick is the most important decision in your bracket, so I’m sticking with Florida. However, if I’m making a non-Florida champion bracket, the sweet spot for the Gators to lose is earlier than the Elite Eight.
South Region
Round of 64
About 2% of users are content taking a zero here on the Alabama State/Saint Francis First Four winner.
