It’s time for March Madness and for our NCAA Tournament bracket picks.
Sean Koerner gave his bracket out earlier in the week, and now it's time to reveal mine. Much like Sean, I'm aiming to take it all down with leverage plays with the goal of hitting the top tiers of bracket payouts, or to have it bust trying.
That means you'll see me have mediocre years like last year, where my bracket finished in the 59th percentile, or a year like 2023 where I finished in the 97th percentile.
So without further ado, here are my 2025 NCAA Tournament bracket picks.
2025 NCAA Tournament Bracket Picks
| Click on a section to skip ahead | ||
| East | ||
| West | ||
| South | ||
| Midwest | ||
| Final Four | ||
East Region
Round of 64
We're not fading the strongest No. 1 seed since 2004 by KenPom against a 16.
I'll take the favored Mississippi Bulldogs, who the books make as a favorite against Baylor. My personal power rankings have Baylor as the slight favorite, but not enough to justify them winning 59% of the time, which is the rate at which they are currently being picked.
Oregon is a weak five seed, and I make them more like a nine seed by my power ratings. That said, Liberty is the worst of the four 12 seeds as well. I'll advance Oregon here.
Arizona gets the weakest 13 seed in Akron, whom I have graded out as a 14 seed. In addition, the Wildcats push pace, giving them more possessions to realize their efficiency edge. Take Arizona here.
I'm on VCU in my Giffen Guide to March Madness, and I'm on them in bracket formats too, as I have them as a shorter dog than the current 3.5-points spread. This is pretty close to a coinflip, but 65% of users picked BYU.
VCU advances.
The Badgers are huge 16.5-point favorites against Montana, and I actually think the Badgers cover based off my power ratings.
Another team from my Giffen Guide to March Madness, St. Mary's can offer us plenty of leverage moving forward, so I'm advancing them here over Vandy.
Alabama is a strong two seed, so it's too early to bounce them here.
Round of 32
Again, I'm not knocking out the strongest one seed we've seen in two decades by KenPom's adjusted efficiency margin this early in the tournament, especially with Cooper Flagg likely to be back for this game.
I'm not advancing a team that should be a nine seed against the four-seeded, up-tempo Wildcats.
In a game that features the two universities my youngest brother attended, I'll go with the one where he finished his degree, and pick VCU to advance.
Once again, I'm sticking with my Giffen Guide to March Madness and picking an upset. St. Mary's will make it tough on Alabama by slowing the game down and shutting down the three point attempts that Alabama loves to use.
Give me the Gaels in an upset.
Sweet 16
This will be the second weekend, and Cooper Flagg seems to be a lock to be back by this time.
However, given I have chaos in the bottom half of this region, I've already gained enough leverage in those spots, so I can't pick Arizona to pull off the upset here.
With an eye toward both of these teams losing to Duke, I'll take the chalkier route and pick the favored Gaels.
Elite Eight
Duke has only lost three times this year, all to teams ranked inside the KenPom top 21. St. Mary's is 22nd, so they could give Duke all they can handle, especially by slowing the pace down, but I'm taking the best team in college basketball here.
East | West | South | Midwest | Final Four
West Region
Round of 64
Even in super-large fields, picking a 16 over a 1 would need a certain set of circumstances for it to happen. Florida doesn't fit the bill of a UVA or Purdue.
The devigged moneyline makes UConn about a 2-1 favorite, which is spot on with the percentage of people picking the Huskies to advance. I'll lean on my own power ratings here, though, and push through the Sooners in a game that should feature about two possessions fewer than the national average.
Colorado State is favored, ranks higher in my power ratings, and yet Memphis is the team being picked more. I have Memphis graded more like an 11 seed, so give me the better team — CSU.
Maryland is a solid four seed that is one place away from jumping to a three seed by my numbers. I'll take them over one of last year's Giffen Guide picks, Grand Canyon.
I love the way Missouri matches up against Drake. It reminds me of Grand Canyon last year vs. Saint Mary's. However, that was an upset. Now we're getting the better team in the plus matchup. Missouri rolls.
Texas Tech is a strong three seed and actually grades out as the eighth-best team by my power ratings. I'm not having them lose to UNCW here.
Only 60% of people are picking the preseason No. 1 team, Kansas, to advance. Preseason rankings do actually hold some predictive power as a strong statistical prior. I'm taking the Jayhawks here.
The 95% of people picking St. John's are pretty close to in line with what the betting market makes this game, so no reason to get fancy here and pick an upset. Back the Johnnies to advance.
Round of 32
I took a bit of a risk with Oklahoma over UConn, so it's time to eliminate any undue risk and stick with the chalk.
A strong four seed against a strong twelve seed would make for an interesting battle, but I'll advance the Terrapins since we already gained an edge on the field by picking CSU.
Texas Tech is a bit banged up with Darrion Williams and Chance McMillan having sat out there most recent game. However, they should both be back by this game, and with St. John's the target in this region, I don't need to pick an upset here.
The preseason rankings loom large here, with preseason No. 1 Kanasas facing St. John's team that was unranked in the preseason.
Tournament one and two seeds that were unranked in the preseason have an abysmal record, so I'll take Kansas in game I make a one possession game despite users picking St. John's at an 80% clip in this hypothetical matchup.
Sweet 16
This could be a good spot to pick Maryland unless you're in a bracket with a bunch of Terrapin fans, but Florida is so strong that I'm going to continue to roll with the chalk here.
I thought about advancing Kansas here, but we got the leverage we wanted from their upset of St. John's already. So to minimize any added risk, I'll take Texas Tech here.
Elite Eight
The bottom portion of the region is tough. I could have chosen St. John's to get here, or even Kansas or picking Missouri to upset Texas Tech. So the most likely path from here doesn't include Texas Tech.
Florida to the Final Four.
East | West | South | Midwest | Final Four
South Region
Round of 64
Users are picking Louisville at nearly a coinflip against Creighton, but I have the Cardinals as the better team and with the game in Lexington, you gotta bump Louisville up a bit.
This feels like the 5/12 upset everyone is picking, and I can certainly see it happening. In a sharper bracket I think we'll see a higher rate of UCSD picks here so to actually go contrarian I'll take Michigan.
I'd flip this if you expect to be in a bracket full of more casuals.
Texas A&M is quite erratic as a horrible shooting team and Yale likes to force their opponents to shoot from outside, which A&M is even worse at.
The no-vig line is about 75% / 25% so the market is right in line with the public who are choosing Yale at a 25% clip.
I'd normally roll with the favorite in that spot, but I've been pretty chalky elsewhere so I'll pick one 13 over 4 upset.
North Carolina is another team in my Giffen Guide to March Madness, and they've been outperforming their expectations since they switched to their current rotation. The win over San Diego St. moves the Heels to 8-2 in their 10 games since they moved to the current starting lineup, while jumping from 47th to 30th in KenPom during that time.
I think they continue to rise toward their preseason expectations, which were in the 10-15 range.
Iowa State is a strong three seed that looked like a two seed for much of the season, only to be bitten by the injury bug at various points mid-to-late season.
Without Keshon Gilbert, they'll certainly take a hit, and similarly if Tamin Lipsey can't go.
That said, I'll advance them here, with an eye toward knocking them out later.
Another team in my Giffen Guide to March Madness is the Marquette Golden Eagles, and I don't like New Mexico pushing the pace here in a spot they are at a per-possession efficiency disadvantage. I'll take Marquette to keep rolling with the guide.
Michigan State grades out more like a three seed for me, and they are another top-two seeded team that was unranked in the preseason, much like St. John's. But I'll trust in Tom Izzo to not drop this one to Bryant.
Round of 32
I'm too high on Auburn to pick them losing to Louisville here, but you certainly can't count out the Cardinals in Lexington.
Given I took a leverage disadvantage spot by picking the Wolverines, I would ordinarily compensate by fading them here. But I also picked a 13 seed in a non-leverage spot, so since I'd have either team losing to Auburn, I'll minimize the damage and take the more likely outcome in this hypothetical matchup and push Michigan to the Sweet 16.
Give me the surging team over the team in a bit of a downswing dealing with injuries.
Note: if you're from the Research Triangle, there will be a lot of Carolina-based people picking UNC, so I'd probably go Iowa State in that case. But since I no longer live out there, I'm free to choose the Tar Heels.
I'll go against the Giffen Guide here, simply because I have a different team from the Giffen Guide eliminating Sparty.
Sweet 16
Like I mentioned in the Round of 32, I had Michigan or Yale losing to Auburn, so Auburn it is.
I finally eliminate the preseason unranked Spartans with the surging preseason No. 9 Tar Heels.
Elite Eight
I've taken my leverage with UNC, so now it's time to bail and pick one of the six-most dominant one seeds since 2004.
East | West | South | Midwest | Final Four
Midwest Region
Round of 64
Houston is the plodding one seed that does fit the profile of a team that can get beat from that perspective. And J'Wan Roberts is dealing with an injury and could be limited.
But I'm not picking against one of the six-most dominant one seeds of the past 20-plus years.
I have Gonzaga comfortably favored yet 33% of people are picking Georgia to advance. I see no reason to go against the Zags given that number.
There's no need to pick against Clemson in what my power ratings have as the widest 5/12 gap among the four games.
There's a lot of leverage in picking against Houston, and that could happen through Gonzaga, but also through the winner of a hypothetical Clemson vs. Purdue matchup, as both teams are also on the slower side of pace.
So I'll help that along by picking Purdue over High Point.
My Giffen Guide has Texas because the Longhorns were +140 at the time. However, now that the best you can get is +125 I'd side with Xavier in the Giffen Guide at that price point.
Given I made Xavier/Texas a "choose your own adventure" pick, I don't feel bad about flip-flopping on that Giffen Guide part.
That said, I'd have either team over Illinois as part of the guide, so let's stick wtih that.
I've already picked one 13/4 upset, and I think that's as far as I'm willing to go given I have Kentucky tumbling later on. The Wildcats are easily the weakest No. 3 seed, but we don't need to gobble that leverage up yet.
Utah State is a popular 7/10 upset pick, but I like UCLA to give the Volunteers a run for their money in a potential leverage spot, so I'll advance my eighth Giffen Guide team.
Tennessee is right up there with Alabama for top billing among the two seeds. I can't go against them here.
Round of 32
While this is a make or break spot, as Sean Korner alluded to, I think we can potentially take the chalk here knowing Houston faces a tough spot against Purdue or Clemson, and potentailly against slow paces teams like Tennessee or even UCLA down the line.
I picked the four seed in the other four-five matchup I had, but I make this game nearly a Pick'em. Users are picking Clemson at a 55% rate, and I have Clemson adjusted down slightly for missing Dillon Hunter for the tournament, so I'll take the small leverage with Purdue.
Kentucky is a weak seed who will face either Texas or Xavier from my Giffen Guide.
Given this is exactly what I targeted with that guide, I'll keep rolling it up.
This is a good spot to potentially gain some leverage by picking UCLA, which is why I targeted them in my Giffen Guide.
But with a handful of pitfalls possible for Houston, I can't risk a bracket where Houston is eliminated before the Elite Eight and having a four, five or eight seed squaring off against either UCLA or Xavier/Texas.
I'll advance Tennessee here.
Sweet 16
I could have easily picked Clemson in a coinflip spot, so to minimize risk, Houston advances here. But I'm still eyeing their elimination.
Tennessee advances, ending the cinderella run of either Xavier or Texas.
Elite Eight
Tennessee is the team that gets the job done, eliminating Houston from a bracket that has all one seeds in my final four.
East | West | South | Midwest | Final Four
Final Four
This is as coinflip as it gets, but with Auburn picked as the champion in just 10% of brackets compared to 21% for Florida, this becomes a good leverage spot with 62% of people backing the Gators in this hypothetical matchup.
I have Duke as the No. 1 team, and there would be some leverage taking Tennessee here. But Tennessee could more easily have been eliminated at this point, so I'll back the favorites here, setting up an all-one seed final.
My personal power ratings have Auburn and Florida as near co-favorites for the second-most likely winner behind Duke.
But we're getting leverage by fading the Blue Devils, and as a UVA and NC State fan, I don't want to root for Duke anyway.
Auburn is my 2024-25 NCAA champion!
