It's the best sporting event of the year, folks. We made it. The madness of the First Four has begun, and the Round of 64 kicks off Thursday afternoon.
Whether you're building a bracket, entering a survivor pool or crafting your betting card, I've ranked the five best underdogs with an excellent shot at winning their matchup outright. I have elected to round-robin these five teams, 2s through 5.
Let's dive into my 2025 NCAA Tournament picks and underdogs to include in parlays and round robins.
(13) High Point Panthers
+290 vs. (4) Purdue
The champions of the Big South, the High Point Panthers draw a date with the Purdue Boilermakers in the Round of 64.
The Panthers are scorching hot entering the NCAA Tournament and even had to overcome an 18-point deficit in the Big South Tournament final.
High Point can flat-out play and will not be intimidated taking on Purdue. The Boilermakers are no stranger to being upset in the first round; they have lost in this situation four times since 2016.
The Zach Edey era is over for Matt Painter's squad, which no longer has a massive height advantage over most opponents. Typically, a mid-major program is outsized by a large margin in these first-round matchups, but that's not the case for the Panthers.
This Panthers team can flat-out score and beat opponents in so many ways. They have the 25th-best adjusted offensive efficiency in the country, including a ranking of 15th in 2-point percentage.
The Boilermakers are 350th in opposing 2-point percentage, and the metrics suggest they've been living dangerously out on the perimeter. They were 300th in opponent 3-point attempts, a recipe for disaster against a High Point team that shoots 37% from deep.
It's not outlandish to think that the Panthers have the better offensive unit here, and their defense isn't as bad as many perceive. They ranked inside the top 100 in opponent 3-point percentage and effective field-goal percentage.
I've been out on the Boilermakers since they blew a massive lead at Indiana a couple of weeks ago. Matt Painter's squad has an early exit this year.
(13) Yale Bulldogs
+295 vs. (4) Texas A&M
The Yale Bulldogs were the champions of the Ivy League and drew a date with the Texas A&M Aggies in the first round. The Aggies are one of the most physical teams in the country, but their offense has been highly inconsistent.
Despite their talent and physicality, they draw an extremely dangerous matchup with Yale here. The Bulldogs have a ton of flamethrowers, led by John Poulakidas.
They're not a 3-point shooting team, but this shows you how versatile they are and how they can beat you in multiple ways.
The Aggies' Achilles' heel on defense is out on the perimeter, and they could be in serious trouble here.
Bulldogs head coach James Jones is one of the most underrated coaches in America, and he has two first-round upset wins under his belt, including last season against Auburn.
Yale shoots 39% from deep but gets the job done inside the arc and at the charity stripe. Its offense is more than capable of keeping pace with the Aggies.
The Aggies' offensive struggles could get them into trouble here, especially since the strength of the Bulldogs defense lies inside. Plus, Yale has decent height.
That's massive against an Aggies team that's sensational on the boards. I love Jones as a coach, and this Yale team is ready to play spoiler on Thursday.
(10) Arkansas Razorbacks
+164 vs. (7) Kansas
The Razorbacks clawed their way into the NCAA Tournament by rattling off some late-season wins, and they will get healthier before Thursday. Guard Boogie Fland, the Hogs' leading scorer, is expected to play against the Jayhawks.
There's still uncertainty for forward Adou Thiero, who's also extremely important for Calipari's team. However, I think Fland's return is significant, and the Hogs are ready to make a statement against Kansas.
This is more of a fade of Kansas than anything. The Jayhawks have looked like a completely different team since they defeated Duke back in November. Their 3-point shooting is extremely inconsistent, and they lack the physicality that would pose problems against Arkansas.
The Jayhawks don't force turnovers on defense, and they've been extremely fortunate against the triple. Their opponents are shooting 31% from deep despite ranking outside the top 250 in attempts allowed in that area.
Fland returning should help the Hogs cash in on that looming regression, as he shoots 37% from deep. I also think D.J. Wagner and Johnell Davis are far better shooters than what they displayed throughout the season after they both shot under 32% from deep.
If the Jayhawks' struggles from 3 continue, I have trouble envisioning them scoring enough to win this one. They also can't shoot free throws and rarely get to the line, which makes me question where their offense is going to come from.
If the Hogs get Thiero back, that'll be a huge plus, but I think Calipari's squad gets it done regardless.
(11) VCU Rams
+135 vs. (6) BYU
Most of the country seems to be penciling in the Cougars to advance to the Sweet 16, but I'm here to tell you to pump the brakes. The committee severely under-seeded the Rams, who rank 30th in KenPom.
The Rams are coming off a stellar 28-win season and A-10 Championship, and the market has started to indicate that they're live to win this game outright.
I will restate the altitude narrative, as I don't think it will impact the Rams as much as others perceive. This is the nation's No. 1 team in defensive effective field-goal percentage, and they're extremely tenacious.
BYU is an excellent offensive team, but it should run into problems against VCU's defense. The Cougars are careless with the ball, and the Rams are pesky and force many of them.
On the other side, the Cougars can't defend the perimeter well, which boosts the Rams offense. I'd argue VCU is a better 3-point shooting team than the metrics suggest, and it should have positive shooting fortune coming its way.
The Rams are excellent on the offensive glass and take care of business at the charity stripe. I expect their defense to do most of the damage, while their offense does enough to secure a victory.
(12) UC San Diego Tritons
+125 vs. (5) Michigan
Last but certainly not least, the UC San Diego Tritons are my favorite play of the Round of 64. Yes, it's a bit trendy, but as of Tuesday evening, I still see 65% of the bets on Michigan.
The Tritons are an outstanding basketball team, and I was praying they drew a matchup like this one in the Round of 64. Not only will they be facing a Michigan team coming off of three games in three days, but their team profile fits extremely well to combat the Wolverines.
UCSD owns the nation's longest winning streak (15 games), and now it gets to show the world how good it truly is.
As a team, the Tritons shoot 37% from 3 and 75% from the charity stripe, and the Wolverines are due for massive regression on the perimeter defensively.
UC San Diego never turns the ball over, and Michigan rarely forces any defensively. On the flip side, the Wolverines are extremely careless with the ball, while the Tritons rank 2nd nationally in defensive turnover rate.
UCSD's one area of concern is containing Michigan's two 7-footers, Vlad Goldin and Danny Wolf. However, its interior defense ranks inside the top 20. The Tritons remain disciplined and defend the perimeter extremely well.
I think this Michigan team is extremely overrated, and we saw signs of that over the last month. It took a bit of fortune for it to win the Big Ten Championship, and I think the wear and tear on their bodies could show up on Thursday night.
Eric Olen's Tritons are ready to shine on the big stage, and I think they're a tremendous play in this round.
