The West Region is filled with guard play.
Florida has a bevy of backcourt creators. Texas Tech has three elite dribble creators. St. John's has Kadary Richmond. Kansas has Dajuan Harris. Maryland has Ja'Kobi Gillespie. Memphis has PJ Haggerty. Colorado State has Nique Clifford. Drake has Bennett Stirtz. Even Norfolk State has a couple of elite low-major guards in Christian Ings and Brian Moore Jr.
Guard play is important in March. Which backcourt creators become the superstars of this region?
Let's dive into my 2025 NCAA Tournament West Region preview, including my favorite matchup, top sleeper and info on the favorite.
West Region Favorite
Florida Gators (-125 to Win West Region)
These Gators are special.
After blowing through the SEC Tournament, they’ve snuck up to second nationally in net rating and first in offensive efficiency, per KenPom. They’ve beaten Texas A&M, Missouri, Auburn, Tennessee (twice) and Alabama (twice).
Florida has the whole package.
The Gators have elite guard play and shooting between Walter Clayton Jr., Alijah Martin and Will Richard. They have one of the nation’s most imposing front lines between Thomas Haugh, Micah Handlogten, Alex Condon and Rueben Chinyelu — four guys who obliterate the offensive glass while owning the rim on the other end.
They’re electric in transition and dominant in transition-denial. They’re one of the nation’s best shot-volume teams, ranking fifth nationally in rebounding and turnover differential (+328, per CBB Analytics). They’re excellent at ball screens, dribble hand-offs and high-low creation — an elite rim-and-3 offense with superb ball movement.
Florida is a tad weaker defending the perimeter because it has played more aggressively in ball-screen coverage. However, the Gators have still been above average in catch-and-shoot denial, and they’ve been isolation-and-rim funneling toward their impenetrable front line.
It’s going to be hard to beat the Gators.
Ultimate Winner of Region
Texas Tech (+600 to Win West Region)
Yes, Florida rocks.
But so does a fully healthy Texas Tech squad. Chance McMillian and Darrion Williams will return for the Big Dance after missing the Big 12 Tournament.
The Red Raiders are among the nation’s best spacing and shot-making teams.
They combine elite off-the-bounce dribble creators (McMillian, Elijah Hawkins, Christian Anderson) with elite hard-roll, short-roll and pick-and-pop creators (Williams, JT Toppin, Federiko Federiko).
The Raiders can work paint-to-perimeter as well as any offense. And they never turn the ball over. And they’re good on the offensive glass. It’s a scary combination, hence why they rank sixth nationally in offensive efficiency.
I’m not entirely sold on the defense. However, the Raiders are pretty strong in rim-and-3 and transition denial, and they rebound everything. That’s typically a rock-solid, low-variance combination on that end of the court.
I also like their path. I don’t think UNC Wilmington has the perimeter firepower to keep up, and I don’t think Drake has the athleticism to match up. I also power-rate Texas Tech much higher than Missouri, even if the Tigers are a dangerous 6-seed.
If it happens in the Sweet 16, the Raiders match up very well with the Johnnies. Rick Pitino’s dribble-overload defense can get ripped apart by Texas Tech’s elite short-roll creation, while the Johnnies offense can get bogged up in the half-court if the Raiders’ transition-denial does its job.
I don’t know if Texas Tech can out-gun Florida in the Elite Eight, but I must take a shot with the Raiders to come out of the West at these odds. They have the firepower to keep up with anyone.
Potential Bracket-Buster
Colorado State Rams (+6000 to Win West Region)
There’s one reason why Colorado State is the biggest potential bracket-buster in the West.
The Rams rank eighth nationally in Bart Torvik’s efficiency metrics since Feb. 15. They’ve won all 10 games during the stretch, including the Mountain West Tournament.
They’re the hottest team in the nation. Niko Medved’s motion offense is challenging to solve and stop. He figures out plenty of ways to get superstar two-way do-it-all guard Nique Clifford his 20 points per game — the first-team All-Mountain West selection has been red-hot, averaging 25/8/5 over the past five games.
The Rams are also 2.5-point favorites over Memphis in the first round despite being the 12-seed. So, they’re likely the safest double-digit seed to win a game or two in this region.
That said, I’m out on the Rams.
During this 10-game winning streak, Colorado State has shot 47% from deep, while opponents have shot 27% — a 3-point delta exaggerated by the fact that Medved runs a compact defensive scheme.
Therefore, I think the Rams are super overvalued entering this tournament, and I’ve already bet Memphis in that first-round matchup.
That said, I think they’re the safest bet to make some noise from the 12-line.
Best Matchup of First Round
Drake vs. Missouri
One could argue that the 30-win Bulldogs are the biggest potential bracket-buster in the West, but I’m too scared of Texas Tech to make that proclamation.
However, I’m fascinated by their first-round matchup with Missouri.
Who controls the pace?
Drake is a snail. The Bulldogs’ 22-second average offensive possession length is the longest in the past 10 years, per KenPom. Bennett Stirtz plays every minute and runs relentless middle pick-and-roll sets, grinding the game to a halt while utilizing every second to find the best shot.
Then they grab every offensive board and live at the line, extending possessions even further. They’re also the nation’s best transition-denial defense (six possessions per game allowed, per Synergy).
Meanwhile, the Tigers run an extended on-ball pressure defense to generate turnovers and run the open court.
Missouri should be able to generate turnovers and free-throw attempts against the Bulldogs’ oft-sloppy ball-handling and foul-heavy big men. However, the Tigers are also weak on the glass and foul like crazy, which plays right into Drake’s hands.
Drake’s Division-II heavy roster is relatively tiny and unathletic, so Missouri should be able to mismatch hunt off the bounce with Mark Mitchell, Anthony Robinson II and Tamar Bates — the Bulldogs rank sub-300th in 2-point shooting allowed (54%, per KenPom).
I think this game will come down to what Ben McCollum draws up against Dennis Gates’ zone. Drake has been efficient against zone this season (1.03 PPP, per Synergy) but on a minimal sample size.
This is simply a fascinating game from a schematic perspective, and I’m excited to see how it plays out.
