The NCAA Tournament first round continues on Thursday evening with several electric games.
Our staff has four best bets for the night slate, including sides in matchups between Arkansas and Kansas, Yale and Texas A&M, and UC San Diego and Michigan.
Read below for NCAA Tournament best bets, including our top four NCAAB expert picks and predictions for Thursday night, March 20.
(Even though it's not our official recommendation, there's an option for a parlay below.)
NCAA Tournament Best Bets for Thursday Evening
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college basketball betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7:10 p.m. | |
  | 7:25 p.m. | |
  | 10:00 p.m. | |
  | 10:10 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Arkansas vs. Kansas
On Thursday night, the Arkansas Razorbacks and Kansas Jayhawks will clash from Providence, Rhode Island.
Two Hall-of-Fame coaches will square off in Arkansas’ John Calipari and Kansas’ Bill Self.
Arkansas enters the tournament with a 20-13 record. The Razorbacks played most of the season on the bubble, and a late surge earned them an at-large bid on Selection Sunday.
Arkansas will play today's game without leading scorer Adou Thiero.
The good news for the Razorbacks is guard Boogie Fland is expected to play his first game since Jan. 18. Fland averaged 15.1 points per game and 5.7 assists.
On the other side, Kansas posted a record of 21-12 this season and will be making its 35th consecutive March Madness appearance.
Bill Self's team began the season ranked first in the nation and ended the season ranked unranked.
Hunter Dickinson leads the team with 17.6 points per game and 10.0 rebounds.
We will fade the heavy public underdog this afternoon.
Kansas holds a significant advantage on the glass in this game. The Jayhawks rank 19th in rebounds per game (38.5), while the Razorbacks rank 140th (35.3).
Dickinson and KJ Adams will be the difference in this contest.
Plus, Arkansas will struggle to generate consistent offense without Thiero.
Pick: Kansas -4.5 (Play to -5)
Yale vs. Texas A&M
Ivy League entries have been wreaking havoc in recent Big Dances, with Yale running off Auburn last March and Princeton taking down Arizona the season prior.
The Bulldogs are back with an even more explosive 82-points-per-game offense while ranking in the top ten nationally in both field goal percentage (49%) and 3-point shooting (39%).
Keep an eye on 6-foot-6 senior wing and three-year starter John Poulakidas, part of last year's March success story and busting out for 19.2 points per game to lead the latest quality James Jones team.
Buzz William's Aggies never found their stride down the stretch like last year's team, as they barely shoot 31% from deep and have covered just six of their past 18 games.
I'll be playing Yale.
Pick: Yale +7.5 (Play to +7)
UC San Diego vs. Michigan
By Stuckey
I'm hearing lots of upset chatter surrounding UC San Diego, but I'm not afraid of a trendy mid-major. Some go down in flames, and some advance.
I like this specific matchup for the Tritons. And I've loved this team all season, so I'm not jumping off the bandwagon now.
Plus, unlike a few other games I like on Thursday where I'm concerned about the travel situation (Yale, VCU), that angle could potentially work in UCSD's favor — Michigan played three games in three days last weekend and is now heading to Denver to play in altitude.
Legs could be an issue for a Michigan team without much depth, and I think it'll have to hit 3s in this matchup (more on that in a bit). A few weeks back, Michigan was in a similar situation against Illinois and lost by 20.
The most glaring mismatch in this game is the turnover margin. The Tritons excel in this area, giving them a very positive shot volume profile, especially with their ability to defend without fouling and gang rebound on the defensive end.
UC San Diego ranks in the top 10 nationally in offensive and defensive turnover rates. That could be problematic for a Michigan offense with major turnover issues (328th nationally).
Now, one might also point to Michigan's size as a significant asset in this game, as the Wolverines have a pair of seven-footers who run a unique offense under Dusty May.
UC San Diego certainly doesn't possess any elite interior size. However, despite that lack of height inside, the Tritons still ranked in the top 75 nationally in both Near Proximity Attempt Rate and Percentage Allowed, per Haslametrics.
They also ranked in the ninth percentile in rim frequency allowed and the 93rd percentile in rim efficiency allowed, per Synergy.
This was all possible due to their defensive structure, which will mix in some zone (with man principles) and extreme help across the board. They make life very difficult for big men in the paint — it worked against UC Irvine's seven-foot big man three times.
In a road victory at Utah State earlier this season, they rendered the Aggies' big men useless.
They also get into passing lanes and anticipate ball movement better than almost any team in the country, which could spell trouble for a Michigan team that can get very loose with the rock.
Will Vlad Goldin and Danny Wolf still get their fair share of points? Absolutely, especially off second-chance opportunities. Still, I don't believe their sheer size will dominate the UCSD defense.
As a result of this defensive structure, the Tritons allow plenty of 3-point attempts, so Michigan will have to hit its outside jumpers. That's been a bit of a struggle in 2025 for the Wolverines, and now fatigue could become a bit of a factor.
If the Wolverines are hot from the outside and can limit the turnovers to a respectable level, they'll have a great shot of winning this game, especially if UCSD has an off-shooting night.
I actually believe Wolf's passing ability will be the key to this game for the Michigan offense. Can the former Yale transfer find the open shooters on the perimeter without coughing it up too frequently? That's something to watch closely throughout.
For what it's worth, the Tritons attempt 3s at the highest rate of any team in the tournament, led by sharpshooter Tyler McGhie, who's capable of pouring in six or seven in a game.
The UCSD offense can also beat you in many ways, with Aniwaniwa Tait-Jones running the show as an all-around nightmare matchup. He sees the floor better than almost any player I've watched in college basketball this season.
And don't sleep on Hayden Gray, who not only leads the nation in steal rate but also has shot 42% from deep this year.
Ultimately, I think this is more of a coin-flip game, so I show value on the Tritons, who have flummoxed oddsmakers all season as the best team in the country against the spread.
I actually believe this will come down to which team can shoot better from the outside. I trust the Tritons more in that department, especially as the more well-rested team in altitude (which they already have familiarity with due to that aforementioned win at Utah State). The Wolverines can't say the same.
My one concern is potential 3-point shooting regression hitting all at once in favor of the Wolverines. Since February 1, Michigan has made just 27.5% of its 3-point attempts after connecting on 37% through the end of January.
Meanwhile, UCSD has held opponents to just 29% 3-point shooting since the beginning of February — down from 35.6% over the season's first three months.
That's the largest delta among tournament teams.
Additionally, the Tritons have made 39.9% of their triples over that period after only connecting on 34.2% through the end of January.
Does it all come crashing down in a one-and-done scenario for a team that shoots (eighth in attempt rate) and allows (328th) a high volume of 3-pointers?
That's a possibility, but I'll be going down with the ship if that happens with a team that should finish with a significant turnover edge when it's all said and done.
Pick: UCSD +2.5 (Playable at Number)
UNC Wilmington vs. Texas Tech
I like the over here.
The Seahawks are going to run everything through Harlan Obioha and Kamari McGriff in the post.
