March is right around the corner, but before we dive right into conference play and the bubble, I'm making five college basketball New Year's betting resolutions.
In this piece, I will touch on overvalued teams, futures, and more to help you bet league play.
So, here are five things to keep in mind when forming your betting card moving forward.
Keep an Eye on Cross-Country Travel Spots
One of the biggest storylines heading into this season revolved around conference realignment and the current unraveling of the Pac-12.
With these West Coast teams now spread out across the Big 12, ACC, and Big Ten, travel becomes even more critical to handicaps, regardless of the talent on the specific rosters.
For example, UCLA plays Michigan at home on Jan. 7 before it has to travel across the country for a game three days later against Maryland on Jan. 10 and a matchup against Rutgers on Jan. 13.
And it doesn't just apply to newcomers like the Bruins.
An early-conference example of this is UCF, which has to travel to Arizona to take on the Wildcats and Sun Devils before returning back to Florida four days later to face top-25 Houston at home.
That's a lot of travel for a team in conference play, putting added pressure on particular spots — again, regardless of the talent level on a roster.
These are 18-19-20-year-old human beings, so jet leg will play a significant role when it comes to these three conferences.
I am going to target specific spots (like the two I mentioned above), and you should too.
Lock in These Futures
Before the season, I threw a dart on Saint Joe's to win the Atlantic 10 at +1000. While I still have faith in the Hawks' guard play, Dayton has looked superb, notching wins over UConn and Marquette while posting a 10-3 nonconference record.
So, I'm going to look elsewhere to start 2025.
The two bets I'm targeting are: 1) St. John's to win the Big East at +250 (DraftKings), and 2) Kansas to win the Big 12 at +440 (FanDuel).
I'll start with the Johnnies, who are already 2-0 in league play, with their lone overall losses coming to Baylor and Georgia in the Bahamas.
What I love about St. John's is its depth. Coming into the season, the expectation was that Kadary Richmond and Deivon Smith would be the top two players on the roster. While both have performed admirably, it's been the versatile RJ Luis Jr. and ex-Kansas Jayhawk Zuby Ejiofor who have taken that crown.
Simeon Wilcher has had a breakout year to compliment the Johnnies' top four, and Aaron Scott helps create matchup problems by playing small-ball four.
It also helps that the Johnnies are coached by Rick Pitino, who has reached seven Final Fours in his career.
The Red Storm don't have great shooting — which can impact their half-court offense — but the rest of the competition has their own set of issues. I'm still not sold on UConn's roster this year. Creighton and Xavier have injury concerns. And I think the Johnnies have the bodies to potentially fluster Kam Jones of Marquette.
Meanwhile, Kansas is simply good value. The Jayhawks have won 13 of the last 16 Big 12 titles (either outright or tied) and three of the last five.
Yes, the Jayhawks' road woes popped up again in back-to-back games against Creighton and Missouri and their shooting has posed a problem, but Kansas still has Bill Self leading the show and three veterans — Hunter Dickinson, Dajuan Harris Jr., and KJ Adams Jr. — who have a high level of experience playing in the biggest of games.
I'm also counting on transfers AJ Storr and Rylan Griffen to find their rhythm eventually — they are both too good not to — and for Self to find the right lineup combinations.
While the Big 12 is a beast, there is no team more equipped to get the job done than Kansas.
Ride SEC Home Teams — Especially the 'Dogs
From a large sample size of past seasons, we already know winning on the road is incredibly difficult in the Big Ten.
But this season's SEC is currently on pace to rival the old 2011 Big East for the most NCAA Tournament bids ever (11).
The conference has just three teams outside of the KenPom top 50 — Missouri (52), Vanderbilt (53), and South Carolina (64). Even then, the Tigers beat Kansas, the Commodores are 11-1, and the Gamecocks have beaten three ACC teams.
The SEC also has four squads (!) in KenPom's top-10 (Auburn, Tennessee, Florida, Alabama).
Because of how deep and difficult this conference is, protecting home court is imperative, creating a more sizable advantage for us bettors than other leagues, especially when it comes to underdogs.
Look to Fade These Overvalued Teams
I'm not as high on these squads as the public:
- Texas Tech: The Red Raiders are ranked 13th in KenPom and are 9-2, but they have faced a soft schedule, with arguably their best win coming against Syracuse.
- UConn: Fading Dan Hurley and the back-to-back defending champs seems like a death sentence, but I don't believe they will win the Big East this year. I don't love the complexion of this UConn roster, as I'm worried about shot creation and if Alex Karaban can really be option 1A. Also, Aidan Mahaney has been a total flop thus far.
- Michigan State: Really, you are fading Hurley and Tom Izzo? Well, the Spartans will get exposed by more athletic teams, just like Memphis was able to in Maui. Bet depending on Sparty's matchups.
Count on Cooper Flagg But Proceed With Caution
With the future No. 1 overall pick leading the show, Duke has the most talented team in the nation. The Blue Devils have shown flashes of that talent, with victories over Auburn and Arizona, but their ceiling is even higher than No. 4 in the AP Poll.
As the Blue Devils gain chemistry and more experience (remember their top two scorers are freshmen), they will take a step closer to being the best team in the country. Add on the fact that the rest of the ACC is facing uncertainty, and Duke is ready for some blowout victories, even on some rather large spreads.
Seriously, though, who is the second-best team in this league? North Carolina was expected to be that squad, but shaky interior play and inefficiency from RJ Davis has set Hubert Davis' bunch back a bit.
Is it Clemson? SMU under Andy Enfield? Maybe Pitt? Wake Forest if it cleans up its offense?
We know one thing for certain in the ACC: Duke is by far the best team.
But that doesn't mean we should blindly back the Blue Devils.
Why? Well, Bart Torvik has Duke favored by more than six points in every single conference game for the remainder of the season, including just three games in single digits.
I'm not expecting the Blue Devils to win every conference game — let alone win all those games in blowout fashion. I think UNC eventually will turn things around, and there will be spots where the Blue Devils are sleepy. Look to go against the grain as long as Duke spreads remain inflated.
