If you've followed college basketball enough, there's an old adage that guards win the NCAA tournament.
UConn's Kemba Walker and Shabazz Napier. Davidson's Steph Curry. Baylor's Davion Mitchell and Jared Butler. Kansas State's Markquis Nowell. Oral Roberts' Max Abmas.
And on and on.
Here are five guards on probable NCAA tournament teams who could lead their squad to a deep Big Dance run.
Tyler Kolek (Marquette)
After some injury trouble — including losing Sean Jones for the season — the Golden Eagles took their lumps. They lost back-to-back games in early January to Seton Hall and Butler, with the Butler loss coming at home.
In those two games, Tyler Kolek had a combined seven points.
Known to be a distributor first, Kolek has shifted the narrative a bit because he's on fire lately. He's been averaging close to a double-double in his last eight games — 20.6 PPG, 9.4 APG, 4.6 RPG and 1.5 SPG.
Oh, and Marquette hasn't lost a game since he's been on this torrid run.
Kolek has proven to be more than just an assist guy, and he's in the running for back-to-back Big East Player of the Year awards. Evan Miya has him ranked 10th in Bayesian Performance Rating in the country (sum of a player’s value).
And most importantly, he could make up for last year's disappointing NCAA tournament exit.
TYLER KOLEK HAD HIMSELF A NIGHT‼️🤯😤
In the Last 7 games,Kolek is averaging 19.7 points and 10.0 assists while shooting 52.6% from the floor and 18-38 (47.4%) from three.
Marquette is 7-0 in that stretch. He's playing at an absolutely absurd level.
(VIDEO VIA: @brhoops ) pic.twitter.com/LekfgwWKWs
— The Field of 68 (@TheFieldOf68) February 11, 2024
Shahada Wells (McNeese)
Shahada Wells is one of the most overlooked guards in the country because he plays in the Southland Conference. Per KenPom, Wells has been the “Game MVP” in 12 games for the Cowboys this season.
The Cowboys have only dropped three games on the year, but even with an easier schedule, Joe Lunardi picks them to be a 12-seed at the moment in his latest Bracketology.
12-seeds have won nearly 35% of the time, as they're typically dangerous, strong mid-majors with high-major talent. McNeese could be poised for an upset and a run in the tourney because of this — and because of the TCU transfer, Wells.
Wells has led the charge for the Cowboys, averaging 17.3 points, 4.7 rebounds, 4.7 assists and 2.9 steals per game.
Against UAB, Wells posted 36 points, six boards and three blocks. Remember, UAB just beat FAU last week.
Against Michigan (with Dug McDaniel in the lineup), Wells had 30 points, 10 boards, six assists and five steals.
Against Western Carolina, Wells had 37 points, seven boards, three assists and three steals.
He can do it all, and he's already done it all against top-notch competition.
This is a player who can hit the 3 when called upon, or force a turnover for a quick bucket, which could mount a comeback. This is a player every coach would want at the helm leading his offense.
Don't be surprised to see Wells become an instant fan-favorite in the opening weekend of the tournament, assuming McNeese can win the Southland.
Jamal Shead (Houston)
Jamal Shead has been a usual suspect in the NCAA tournament. In each of his years at Houston, the Cougars have gone to at least the Sweet 16.
He's not scared of the big moment, either.
KenPom has Shead as the No. 9 Player of the Year, and Evan Miya ranks him fourth in MVP score.
Like the others mentioned on this list, Shead can excel on both ends of the floor. He averages 12.7 points, 5.8 assists, 3.6 rebounds and 2.1 steals per game.
His numbers may seem suppressed compared to the rest of these names, but that's because Shead has a large supporting cast, including LJ Cryer, Emanuel Sharp and J’Wan Roberts, who all are averaging at least nine points a night.
Shead hasn't been as prolific of a deep threat, but he's improved from a 31% 3-point shooter (as a junior) to a 34.5% shooter (as a senior). He also shoots over 76% from the free-throw line.
When called upon, Shead is up to the task as the floor general. He may not be the one who makes the bucket, but he sure has a hand in it.
Since Houston has Shead as a default backcourt option and several other go-to players for a quick bucket, he could be a massive part of a Final Four run.
TO BEAT THE BUZZER@Thejshead x #ForTheCitypic.twitter.com/h8BGCHN0zL
— Houston Men's Hoops 🏀 🐾 (@UHCougarMBK) February 10, 2024
Isaiah Stevens (Colorado State)
Like Shead, Isaiah Stevens was a player who could've gone on to play professionally. He chose to stay in Fort Collins for another year, though.
After a few bumps in the road in January, the Rams have won four of five, which has included victories over San Diego State and Boise State.
Stevens is crucial to this Rams team because they struggle mightily with rebounding. He only grabs three rebounds a game, but he also averages 16.3 points, 7.5 assists and 1.4 steals per night. Not to mention, he's shooting a career-best 45.8% from 3-point land.
This type of efficiency is crucial for a team that may not be as tall as its opponent.
Per Evan Miya, Stevens is rated as the third-most indispensable player in the country, behind Xavier Johnson of Southern Illinois (nation’s second-leading scorer) and Zach Edey (we know who he is).
Stevens is also the fourth-best offensive player, according to Miya. He's that crucial to this Colorado State roster and could lead the Rams to a few upsets because of his elite passing and shooting from downtown.
Isaiah Stevens hits in the clutch!
Colorado State will come from behind to beat UNLV and improve to 15-3.pic.twitter.com/dw3gK0giBC
— Heat Check CBB (@HeatCheckCBB) January 20, 2024
Boo Buie (Northwestern)
Probably amongst the most noteworthy names in college basketball in recent years, Boo Buie might be the second-best player in the Big Ten this year.
Buie has led the Wildcats to a victory over a loaded Purdue team two years in a row. He may have lost his partner in crime — Chase Audige — but Buie hasn't missed a step. In fact, he now shoots over 40% from deep.
The star guard averages 18.8 points, 5.4 assists, 3.5 rebounds and 1.4 steals per game.
Yes, Northwestern does look lost at times if Buie is the only one scoring, but Boo rises to the moment. He had 36 over a good Illinois team a few weeks ago, 19 points and 10 assists against MSU in early January and 25+ points in both outings against Purdue.
He'll rise to the occasion in March, especially if Northwestern reaches back-to-back NCAA tournaments for the first time in program history.
Much like with Stevens and Colorado State, Buie needs to be efficient to make up for Northwestern's lack of depth and height, but he's risen to the challenge this season.
If there's one guard who can knock off some giants, Buie is the guy who can answer the call.
Boo Buie keeping Tominaga on his toes and hits the money! 🤑 @booboo_buie x @NUMensBballpic.twitter.com/A9wE9bwtgl
— FOX College Hoops (@CBBonFOX) February 8, 2024
