5 Key Factors to Consider When Betting the 2025 NCAA Tournament

As I do prior to each and every NCAA Tournament, I will share five fairly basic factors that you can use as a starting point to identify key mismatches and potential upsets in either the first round or further down the line in the bracket.

Those include:

• Unique Schemes
• Turnover Rates
• Free Throw Percentages (and frequencies)
• 3-Point Shooting Splits (with a look at regression vandidates)
• Rebounding Splits (with a touch of transition data)

My power rating is my starting point and most important factor, but I spend the most time on understanding each team's statistical profile and how they match up with opponents leading up to the NCAA Tournament.

With a lack of familiarity outside of conference play, matchups and coaching become more emphasized, especially in a much more efficient market following five-plus months of results.

Let's take a look at which teams are likely to zone and/or press the most to get things started.

In the Zone

Two seasons ago, only one of the 38 most zone-heavy defenses made the field. That number jumped up to nine last year but fell in the middle this season with six of the top 38.

For the season, 68% of teams played zone on more than 12% of their defensive possessions, per Synergy. Here are their season-long Zone Frequencies and respective Zone Defensive Rating percentile rankings in terms of points per possession allowed.

I'll follow up on this chart with some quick matchup notes.

Utah State tries to use its 2-3 zone to turn teams over to get out in transition, but UCLA generally doesn't turn the ball over much. The Aggies also don't allow anything at the rim (seventh percentile), but the Bruins don't really try to score at the rim (third percentile).

As a result of its defensive structure, Utah State does allow a high volume of catch-and-shoot 3s, where the Bruins grade out around average.

However, in this particular matchup, I do think UCLA will find ways to operate in the midrange, where it is absolutely lethal.

It should also have plenty of success on the offensive glass, where the Aggies are also vulnerable.

Ultimately, I expect UCLA to have offensive success in this particular matchup against a zone defense that has mainly been solved as the season has progressed.

Since Feb. 1, Utah State has ranked 201st in Overall Defensive Efficiency after ranking 107th over the first 20 games. As long as UCLA takes care of the ball, it should have no issues scoring.

For what it's worth, UCLA graded out very well in zone offense this season but didn't see much of it, especially against formidable foes.

Norfolk State's zone leaves it extremely susceptible to the 3-ball and offensive rebounds, ranking outside the top 300 nationally in frequency in both metrics. Good luck against the Gators, who rank eighth in offensive rebounding percentage and can shoot.

Interestingly, Florida did rank in only the 19th percentile in zone offense but saw it on only 84 possessions this season.

Kentucky rarely saw any zone this season but obviously has the 3-point shooting to exploit a zone.

With that said, Troy's defense switches between man and zone within possessions, so it doesn't allow an extraordinary number of 3-point attempts. The Trojans are extremely vulnerable on the defensive glass, but the Wildcats are not an elite offensive rebounding team by any stretch (221st), which could provide some relief.

Kentucky point guard Lamont Butler's health is paramount here to keep the turnovers down, as Troy ultimately wants to create havoc with its unique defensive scheme.

Drake rarely saw any zone this season, but Missouri may up its usage of both press and zone in this particular matchup to blow up Drake's methodical pick-and-roll heavy offense. Although, that could leave the Tigers even more vulnerable on the defensive glass.

On the season, Drake ranks in the top 20 nationally in offensive rebounding percentage, while Missouri's defense ranks 300th in that department — but maybe the athletic advantage negates some of that.

For what it's worth, Drake did rank in the top five nationally in points per possession against the press, which surprised me, but it obviously didn't play an SEC schedule.

BYU plays a very compact defense that allows a high frequency of 3-point attempts. VCU will happily oblige from deep, as the Rams attempt them at a top-30 clip nationally. They aren't an elite shooting team but have plenty of capable shooters and love to crash the offensive glass off misses (12th nationally).

This matchup might come down to VCU's legs in altitude after playing on Sunday since BYU does a solid job on the defensive glass.

On the season, VCU actually grades out extremely poorly in zone offense (12th percentile), but almost half of those possessions came in a November meeting with Merrimack when it shot 5-of-24 from 3.

Mississippi State grades out pretty similarly vs. zone as man, but almost half of its zone possessions came against lowly Prairie View and Central Michigan.

Baylor's zone could be an effective tool in this matchup to keep the rim-hunting and shooting-averse (298th in 3P%) Bulldogs in check.

I imagine we see an increased amount of zone looks (which have man principles) from UCSD to cover up its lack of size against Michigan's interior size, but many are underestimating just how good this Tritons defense is at limiting paint touches. On the season, they rank in the ninth percentile in rim looks allowed and the 93rd percentile on those possessions. They also finished in the top-75 in both Near Proximity Attempt Rate and Percentage. Michigan's bigs won't have as easy of a time as many assume.

The Wolverines grade out excellent in zone offense but rarely saw any this season and do lack shooting on the perimeter. They will have to hit outside shots here, which UCSD does allow.

Can Michigan actually take care of the ball (328th in turnover rate) against the Tritons, who get in passing lanes as well as any team in the country (2nd nationally in turnover percentage)?

We have also seen teams like Michigan and Colorado State throw out more zone at times late in the season, and a team like Oregon will always switch up its defenses in a tournament setting under Dana Altman.

Additionally, you also never know when a team will throw out a surprise zone based on tourney preparation.

Per Synergy, these five tournament teams had the highest points per zone possession among the 322 teams in the country that saw zone on a minimum of 75 possessions:

And the worst…

In regards to Xavier, Marquette and Troy, their three opponents basically played no zone defense all season. Florida also only saw 83 possessions of zone.

Press U

In this year's field, nine teams pressed at a top-50 clip, led by VCU, which did so at the nation's fifth-highest rate.

Here are those clubs and their respective Press Defensive Rating rankings:

BYU didn't see much press (15th percentile) but graded out very well when it did (80th percentile). However, the Cougar backcourt has had issues dealing with pressure (207th in turnover rate) at times this season.

The whistle and VCU's endurance against a deep BYU team will play huge parts in the outcome of that matchup.

Meanwhile, Grand Canyon wants to play fast, but the Lopes can be turned over (274th). So, maybe we see Maryland break out the press a bit more.

Then again, maybe we see the Terps avoid pressuring too much to stay out of foul trouble against a Grand Canyon squad that gets to the line at a top-10 rate nationally. I actually wouldn't be surprised if head coach Kevin Willard utilized more zone looks defensively.

Yale actually led the nation in points per possession against the press, but Texas A&M will present a much tougher test than the defenses of Cornell, Brown and Quinnipiac.

Mick Cronin's UCLA squad could increase its press usage against a Utah State team that ranked in just the 18th percentile in press offense. I watched the Aggies firsthand struggle with some of the better presses it faced this season. That could be especially key late in the game.

Elsewhere, I don't expect Memphis to press as much if starting point guard Tyrese Hunter remains out with an injury.

American has multiple ball handlers to handle the press.

I'd expect McNeese's Will Wade to try to use his press to disrupt a Clemson offense that grades out just OK (60th percentile) in that area and really struggled against the Memphis press earlier this season.

Kentucky grades out very well against the press (78th percentile), but the health of its backcourt looms large once again. Liberty has excellent press offense grades (97th percentile), but Oregon is obviously a step up in class athletically.

The press can obviously create issues for teams that don't have multiple reliable ball-handlers, especially late in games. Here are the 10 best teams in the tourney field in terms of PPP (points per possession) among the 361 teams that faced the press on a minimum of 100 possessions:

And the 10 worst who could be particularly prone to blowing late leads:

Does Calipari boil up the press back up with a potentially healthier roster against Kansas?

Vanderbilt will likely increase its press usage (14%) to take Saint Mary's out of its half-court offense, although the Dores' press defense has been dreadful this season (13th percentile).

Sloppy Joes

On a related note, understanding who can and can't take care of the ball in a tournament setting is vital. That's especially true in the second game of the weekend after only one day of prep for a quick turnaround.

I personally try to avoid overmatched underdogs that cough it up too much — since that can lead to easy buckets and extended runs the other way.

Here are the best and worst tournament Team Turnover Rates on both offense and defense. Please note that some of these could be by design based on scheme (ex. drop coverage or packed in defenses).

Best Turnover Offenses

Worst Turnover Offenses

Best Turnover Defenses

Worst Turnover Defenses

The UC San Diego-Michigan turnover disparity could be astronomical, while Marquette and Yale's low turnover rates could come in handy in their respective matchups.

Troy could catch another break matchup-wise since Kentucky's defense (341st in turnover rate) won't fully exploit its issues there. Georgia and Robert Morris are in the same boat.

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Charity Work

Life's only certainties are death, taxes and free-throw misses leading to bad beats in the tournament. Get ready for them to come just like every season when fouls go up by over 20% in the final two minutes of the Big Dance.

It's valuable to at least know which favorites can and can't shoot free throws. This could also make a difference in your bracket. One cold shooting night from the charity stripe could send a team packing. Missed front ends for underdogs in key moments can also just lead to killer swings if you're trying to cover a number.

To wit, teams shooting over 77% from the free-throw line have gone 87-52-2 ATS (63%) over the past 20 seasons.

The chart below shows the 10 best and worst free-throw shooting teams in the field:

Best Free-Throw Shooting Teams

Worst Free-Throw Shooting Teams

Wisconsin ranks No. 2 in the history of the sport in free-throw percentage for a single season, trailing 2022 Villanova by just .02% (83.0%). Oklahoma could rack up plenty of free points at the line against a UConn defense that ranks 333rd in foul rate.

Your teams that like to live at the line include Missouri, Grand Canyon, Drake, Texas A&M, Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma and Memphis. All rank in the top 30 nationally in free-throw rate.

Keeping an eye on the whistle in the Missouri-Drake game will be especially critical for Drake since the Bulldogs don't have much depth with a starting lineup that includes two players who finished 1/2 in minutes played this season.

Can Yale avoid foul trouble against the Aggies? Its depth is questionable if not.

A potential path to an upset for Grand Canyon involves getting Maryland in foul trouble, as the Terps are known for their strong starting five but not necessarily their depth.

From The Parking Lot

We spend days obsessing over these matchups, but a large majority of the betting (and a few outright upsets) outcomes will simply boil down to 3-point variance, especially as the market continues to get more efficient with each passing year.

You should at least have some familiarity with which teams can shoot and which ones can't when evaluating specific matchups.

This is also an important factor when evaluating potential upsets for your bracket.

Teams that attempt (and make) a high percentage of 3-pointers will certainly introduce more variance into their results, which is a positive factor for a potential upset.

Top 3-Point Offenses

Worst 3-Point Offenses

Best 3-Point Defenses

Worst 3-Point Defenses

UNC Wilmington could be up a creek if Texas Tech gets hot from the perimeter.

Vanderbilt and Baylor catch a break with their first-round opponents' lack of outside shooting, as does Omaha, which will just pack it in the paint and pray the Johnnies settle for 3s.

From a frequency standpoint, the five tournament teams that shoot the highest rate of 3-pointers per field goal attempt include:

• UC San Diego (49.6%)
• Creighton (49.0%)
• BYU (48.3%)
• Wisconsin (48.1%)
• Louisville (48.1%)

UC San Diego could potentially trade 3s for 2s against Michigan even if the Wolverines somehow take care of the ball.

Wisconsin and Louisville will each take on defenses that really limit 3-point attempts. The other defenses that really limit 3PAs include Illinois, Saint Mary's, Texas Tech, UConn, Grand Canyon and Liberty.

Meanwhile, the least 3-point-reliant offenses include:

• Norfolk State (27.7%)
• St. John's (30.3%)
• Yale (32.0%)
• New Mexico (32.2%)
• Michigan State (32.7%)

A reminder that this is just a very basic starting point for any analysis, as there can be drastic scheme differences that lead to a significantly higher or lower percentage of 3-pointers taken or allowed by design.

Lastly, I would be remiss if I didn't highlight some potential regression candidates. Over small sample sizes, extreme 3-point shooting variance can really inflate a team's metrics or vice versa.

Although, please keep in mind many factors could be at play here (and the date I chose is arbitrary) such as quality of opponents, injuries, schematic shifts, lineup changes (see: UNC, Montana) or overdue previous regression (see: Michigan State), but the below could provide a signal worth digging into.

Since Feb. 1, here are the hottest teams from 3 with the biggest discrepancies from their pre-Feb. 1 shooting splits, which are potential negative shooting regression candidates:

And the biggest dips from beyond the arc since Feb. 1:

Moving to the defensive side of the ball, here are the teams that have seen the biggest decreases in opponent 3-point shooting percentage since Feb. 1, which means they could potentially running a bit lucky:

On the other end of the spectrum, here are the perimeter defenses that have seen the biggest opponent upticks:

Here are some quick takeaways:

• Many of the teams in the last list simply experienced some expected defensive negative regression.
• However, someone will eventually miss a 3 against Illinois.
• The potential two-way 3-point regression in Michigan-UCSD is the one thing that really scares me about that matchup since the Tritons will need to hit shots and will likely allow the Wolverines to take some open 3s.
• I doubt UNC and Colorado State can keep up their torrid shooting pace much longer.
• Ole Miss shows up on the potential positive regression list on both ends.
• Teams that shot the 3 over 5% better at home include Purdue, Missouri, Iowa State, Gonzaga, Georgia and Creighton.

Eating Glass

If the shots aren't falling from the outside, offensive rebounds can really bail a team out in a sudden-death tournament.

Here's a look at the 10 tournament teams that rank in the top 20 nationally in Offensive Rebounding Rate, along with the 10 worst defensive rebounding teams in the field.

Best Offensive Rebounding Teams

Worst Defensive Rebounding Teams

Oklahoma will be at a severe disadvantage on the glass on both ends of the floor, and Vanderbilt might get killed on the offensive glass.

On paper, Yale can at least slow down Texas A&M's offensive rebounding prowess, but the Bulldogs (22nd in DR%) didn't face an opponent that ranked in the top 70 in offensive rebounding rate all year.

Omaha is also an excellent defensive-rebounding team (19th), but the Johnnies are a different beast.

Norfolk State is in major trouble, as I mentioned before.

Drake could eat on the offensive glass against Missouri.

Keep in mind that some of these statistics can simply be a result of a specific scheme by design such as a zone defense naturally allowing more offensive rebound chances.

Also, some teams don't get any offensive rebounds due to a pure lack of size (see: Montana), but others don't in order to get back on defense to prevent transition opportunities (see: Creighton).

Conversely, others are vulnerable to opponent offensive rebounds because they want to get out in transition off misses (see: Missouri). The same holds true for ultra-aggressive defenses (see: Troy) that can get out of position going for steals or blocks.

If you're curious, the 11 teams that get out in transition at top-50 rates nationally include:

Bryant-Michigan State is a first-round matchup between two of those transition-heavy offenses, although Bryant is actually more efficient in the half-court.

Both transition defenses grade out strong, but Bryant obviously played a much softer schedule and allows an extremely high volume of transition chances since it wants to crash the offensive glass relentlessly. That could spell bad news against the Spartans, who you want to make operate in the half-court.

Drake-Missouri is a transition clash, as only two other teams in the nation had a lower rate of transition possessions than the Bulldogs, who also allowed the lowest transition rate in the country.

Marquette has no issues running at times but also has an excellent transition defense (90th percentile) to match up with New Mexico, which also has an elite transition defense.

In regards to Xavier, it's deadly in transition (as is Texas), but both defenses really limit those opportunities, so that will likely be decided in the half-court, where Xavier likely has an edge offensively.

BYU does an adequate job of limiting transition opportunities, but its defense is very poor (19th percentile) when it does, which could lead to some easy buckets for VCU.

Georgia's defense rates as just average in terms of frequency and efficiency against transition offense, which could be a bit problematic against Gonzaga.

Lastly, Colorado State really restricts any transition chances, which could benefit Memphis — a team that's much more efficient in the half-court.

For reference, here are the nine tournament defenses that rank in the top 20 nationally in lowest Transition Rates allowed:

• Drake
• Clemson
• Duke
• Xavier
• Montana
• Houston
• Liberty
• Gonzaga
• Tennessee

SIUE needs to score in transition. Good luck against Houston!

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