We already looked at the five underrated teams heading into the new college basketball season.
Now it's time to take a peak at five overrated college basketball teams entering the 2023-24 season.
Let's dive right in!
Florida Atlantic Owls
A team that reached the Final Four just eight months ago is returning its top four scorers. In today’s world, it’s also incredible that same team didn't lose its coach to a Power Five program in the offseason.
So, the FAU Owls must be a lock to contend for the title again, right?
Not so fast. Florida Atlantic had the benefit of being the lovable, unexpected team America could get behind as it made a magical run this past March. The run wasn't a fluke, but I simply think the Owls peaked in March, reaching their ceiling at a time every program in the country is trying to be at their best.
You may have forgotten that FAU was pretty fortunate just to escape the Round of 64. Ironically, the same team the Owls narrowly snuck past figures to be their primary foe atop the new-look American Conference.
The Memphis Tigers will be happy to see Houston depart for the Big 12 this year, but they will now attempt to best FAU in the Owls’ inaugural year as a member of the AAC.
The AP Poll ranks FAU as the No. 10 team entering the season, which I think is much too high. By the end of the regular season, I expect FAU to be a fringe top-25 team.
The AAC will almost certainly be a two-horse race between Memphis and FAU, making Memphis a more attractive bet to win the league at a price of +185. FAU will still likely earn an at-large bid, but it should end up closer to a seven seed than a three seed.
If you’re higher on FAU than I am, I would still wait to place any futures until its price comes down.
Colorado Buffaloes
Many fans have spent the last couple of months mocking the Buffs’ football program for falling short of expectations that came after a hot start.
But what about the basketball program?
Colorado, like FAU, is happy to see its two most important pieces from last season return. Tristan da Silva and KJ Simpson are back in Boulder and hopeful to lead their team to a much better finish than the 18-17 mark the Buffaloes posted last season.
What’s more is that da Silva and Simpson have some help on the way. Eddie Lampkin Jr. made his way to Boulder via Fort Worth in the offseason after a falling out with former coach Jamie Dixon and TCU. Lampkin isn’t a talented interior scorer. He is, however, quite a defensive and rebounding presence and is capable of covering up many deficiencies.
The Buffs fell in the category of “others receiving votes” in the initial AP Poll. Meanwhile, Jeff Goodman’s Pac-12 preseason rankings list Colorado as a top-three team in the conference, which would be a monumental jump from its eighth-place finish last year.
I expect the Buffs to improve, yet I struggle to see the path to such a vast improvement. A lack of depth could be their downfall.
I don’t expect this team to be a lock to make a return to the NCAA tournament this season. Instead, I expect the Buffs to have sweaty palms on Selection Sunday, hoping simply to be granted a chance to earn their way into the bracket via the First Four in Dayton.
Miami Hurricanes
Miami (FL) enters the 2023-2024 season with momentum and confidence as the result of two consecutive impressive NCAA tournament runs. Despite entering each tournament as a middling seed, the Hurricanes exceeded expectations in both years.
Jim Larranaga is proving that not every aging coach is having trouble adjusting to the new age of college basketball.
The Hurricanes also won the ACC regular season title in 2022-2023, showing they could excel in a larger sample size of games.
Miami is ranked No. 13 in the AP Poll as we enter the upcoming season, trailing only Duke among all ACC teams. I don't expect the Canes to finish the season in that position.
Coach Larranaga was surely sad to see Isaiah Wong and Jordan Miller depart the program in the spring. Wong and Miller were the two leading scorers for Miami last season, leaving Nijel Pack and Norchad Omier with a heavy scoring burden to try to make up for the losses.
Miami did poach a talented wing in Matthew Cleveland from Florida State to help carry a portion of that burden. As a Seminole, Cleveland had some offensive struggles when he wasn’t dominating possession of the ball.
The departures of Wong and Miller figure to impact Miami’s ability to score even when it runs bad offense, as the Canes simply aren't as athletic and talented.
A lack of size is another huge concern. At 6-foot-7, Norchad Omier figures to slot in as an undersized center for Larranaga. He's a strong, tough rebounder, yet I still would expect Miami to have frequent struggles with teams that may simply be able to shoot over the top of the smaller Hurricanes.
My expectation is that the regression monster will bite Miami this year. The ACC foes of Duke, North Carolina and Virginia should all finish above Miami in my eyes.
Instead of finishing as a projected four seed, Miami could conclude its regular season in a sweat just inside the NCAA tournament bubble.
Charleston Cougars
After finishing the 2022-2023 regular season with a 31-3 record, Charleston was a trendy pick to pull a 12 vs. 5 upset in many brackets. The Cougars ultimately fell short of earning what would've been the first NCAA tournament victory in school history, losing to the eventual national runner-up San Diego State.
It’s somewhat surprising to see coach Pat Kelsey return to Charleston for a third year at the helm. Considering his track record of success at both Winthrop and Charleston, he was surely a popular head coaching candidate for the many Power Five vacancies that were filled in the offseason.
His teams are known for playing with a frenetic pace that matches the more modern style of college basketball.
Charleston also was listed among the “others receiving votes” teams just outside the AP Top 25. Some expect Charleston to return to the same form it showcased last season — and potentially even contend for an at-large bid should it lose in the CAA Tournament.
I expect a much bumpier ride.
The Cougars are still listed as the favorite in the CAA at nearly every sportsbook, which is probably justified given Kelsey’s impressive track record. However, the CAA will have a much more potent group of challengers this upcoming season.
The chance for Charleston to lose an unexpected conference game is much higher than last year, making the Cougars an unattractive wager for me at just +210 to win the CAA.
Expect significant roster turnover to lead to some growing pains for this year’s version of the Cougars.
St. John's Red Storm
I have already touched upon Colorado, but I feel compelled to reference the Buffs once more. I recently read an interesting question posed in a Twitter poll: Who is the Deion Sanders of college hoops? It may just be Rick Pitino, the new head coach of St. John’s.
While that comparison certainly has its flaws, the hype surrounding the Red Storm entering this season is certainly reminiscent of the hype Colorado received early this fall.
Pitino brings instant credibility, cache and interest to any program he's associated with. But will the overnight transformation of the St. John’s program translate to immediate success? I’m skeptical.
Should Pitino’s team struggle in his first year at St. John’s, lack of talent likely will not be the cause. Like Deion at Colorado, Pitino realized the new era of college athletics has its advantages; the ability to change the trajectory of a program by 180 degrees exists if a coach and his staff can overhaul an entire roster via the transfer portal.
Considering the Red Storm are inheriting an astounding 10 incoming transfers, St. John’s fans are optimistic a more positive trajectory is looming.
An improvement upon the 18-15 record St. John’s posted last season is not hard to envision. Like Larranaga, Pitino is aging without showing any signs of slowing down. He's a Hall of Fame coach and has an impressive ability to relate to collegiate players given his energetic personality.
Still, the level of competition St. John’s will face in the Big East is a step-up from the MAAC. I would expect this roster of unfamiliar pieces to have a difficult time finding its footing, leading to a lot of inconsistency.
It would truly surprise me if St. John’s finishes as an NCAA tournament team in Pitino’s first year.
The rise to prominence in the hierarchy of college basketball may take a little time for the Red Storm.
Given the presumption that Pitino may only have a limited number of seasons remaining as a head coach, it will be interesting to see if the Red Storm fanbase has enough patience to allow him a chance to reach his potential ceiling in Queens.
