It feels like it happens every year.
You carefully fill your whole March Madness bracket out, choosing just the right winners along the way — only for some crazy Cinderella double-digit seed to blow everything up and show up in the Sweet 16, turning the entire region upside down.
Last year, 15-seed Princeton upset Arizona, then smashed Missouri to make the Sweet 16. In 2022 we got four double-digit seeds in the Sweet 16: 15-seed St. Peters, 11-seed Michigan, and we even saw 10-seed Miami and 11-seed Iowa State face off that round.
Turns out it doesn't just feel like this happens every year — it actually does.
At least one double-digit seed has made the Sweet 16 every single tournament since 2007. We're at 36 double-digit seed Sweet 16s over that span, an average of 2.4 per bracket, or a full 15%.
Although we've seen deep seeds like Princeton and St. Peter's win multiple games each of the last two tournaments, the reality is that these double-digit runs usually don't come from 15-seeds. In fact, 30 of the 36 double-digit seed Sweet 16s since 2007 have been 10-, 11- or 12-seeds.
So who might be this year's double-digit seed Cinderella capable of winning twice the opening weekend and crashing the Sweet 16?
Here are five mid-major conference winners history says could make a run as projected 10-to-12 seeds.
Spoiler alert: hope you like Bulldogs.
Drake (Missouri Valley champion)
When you're looking for a Cinderella for March, it's almost always a good idea to start with the Missouri Valley.
This is a conference that has pulled off some massive upsets in March. Eight times this century, an MVC team has upset a top-3 seed, all as a 7-seed or worse. Think Ali Farokhmanesh and Northern Iowa upsetting 1-seed Kansas or Sister Jean's Loyola Chicago making a shocking Final Four appearance, then upsetting 1-seed Illinois three years later.
In fact, Missouri Valley teams had won nine straight opening games in the NCAA Tournament since 2012 before finally losing one in 2019 and stumbling a bit of late. Since 2010 alone, the MVC has an incredible 12 upset wins as an 8-seed or lower, effectively an average of one per tournament.
History is basically begging you to pick an MVC upset at least once a year in your bracket.
Drake has never won in the modern tournament proper, though the Bulldogs won a play-in game in 2021. They haven't quite lived up to the MVC history and billing just yet, but this squad played in two of the last three NCAA Tournaments. This team is dying to get over the hump and nearly did so last March, leading with under three minutes left before falling as an 11-seed to a Miami team that ended up in the Final Four.
This team is better than last year's, especially on offense. Drake brings a top-40 offense to the dance, and this team has some real wins under its belt. The Bulldogs beat good Nevada, Akron and Oakland teams, and they also beat a really strong Indiana State team twice (that team deserves an at-large tournament berth and would also be a great Cinderella pick).
Drake did lose two of its four top senior scorers a year ago but returned the other two with another year of eligibility, adding breakout freshman Kevin Overton. But we're burying the lede here. Drake's leading scorer Tucker DeVries isn't just scoring 21.8 PPG; he's doing it as the coach's son, with Darian DeVries coming on board the year Drake got that play-in victory.
Drake is genuinely very good, and the Bulldogs will very likely end up under seeded in the bracket. They profile something like a 7- or 8-seed but likely end up more like an 11-seed, and they could be some poor overdog's worst nightmare.
This is a scrappy team that can win multiple games, and maybe not just the first week of the tournament either.
Projected seed: 11
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James Madison (Sun Belt champion)
No team in the nation won more games this season than James Madison, at 31-3. The Dukes haven't lost since January, and they were already a story from opening night when they won at then-No. 4 Michigan State.
James Madison has just two modern tournament appearances and has yet to win in the tourney proper, though it did win a play-in game in 2013 and nearly pulled off an upset as a 14-seed back in 1994 before falling by two. This time, the Dukes will hope to finish the job.
Mark Byington will make his first NCAA Tournament appearance as a coach and is looking for his first postseason win ever. He brings a talented team that has won a bunch of close games and one that ranks top 80 in both offense and defense at KenPom and top 60 overall.
The Sun Belt has four upset wins by double-digit seeds since 2008, three by 12-seeds and one by 14-seed Georgia State, and the conference representative Louisiana nearly added to the list with a three-point loss as a 13-seed last March. A once proud conference hasn't won a game in the NCAA Tournament since 2016, but the conference also hasn't seen better than a 12-seed since 2008.
James Madison will be a popular upset pick with its gaudy record and rounded profile, but the Dukes play a bit faster than you'd like for an upset since slower play means fewer possessions against a better team.
For years, James Madison has been a football powerhouse. Is the basketball team ready to join the fun?
Projected seed: 11
McNeese (Southland champion)
The McNeese Cowboys might be the best team in the nation you know nothing about, and Will Wade's guys are one of the stories of the season.
McNeese was an incredible 30-3 this season, including 17-1 in the conference. The Cowboys beat UAB and VCU, good teams from high mid-majors, and won a game at Michigan.
The Southland Conference isn't much to talk about, but the conference does have four big upset wins since 2006, including three as a 14-seed, the most recent in Abilene Christian's tournament debut in 2021 in a memorable win over Texas.
McNeese is one of the conference's best teams ever.
Its only three losses this season all came by double digits, two of the three by a single bucket. The Cowboys rank inside the top 60 in KenPom — worthy of the competition, unlike most other long shots — and are top 50 offensively and top 100 in defense.
McNeese slows things down, typically a good formula for an underdog in March, and it features excellent guard play, led by senior leading scorer Shahada Wells. They also left no doubt in their conference tournament with a bunch of easy, big wins.
No one expected this when Wade came to Lake Charles, Louisiana, this season, but he has a history of success (if you ignore the recruiting violations). He was an assistant coach on the VCU team that made the Final Four, and he's 4-5 in the NCAA Tournament as a head coach with a 3-seed LSU Sweet 16 (that he was suspended for).
Fine, you don't want to root for Wade? Root for his Cowboys instead. They already have the second-most wins in the nation, and they'd love to add to their tally.
Projected seed: 12
Samford (Southern champion)
Does Samford sound like a school you'd enroll in just so you can trick friends and family into thinking you got into a smart school if you just say it fast enough? Sure, of course it does.
But get used to hearing about Samford, because the Bulldogs are about to be everyone's favorite sleeper.
Samford won the Southern Conference tournament for the first time and returns to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2000, when it repped the Atlantic Sun. The Bulldogs are 0-2 in the modern tourney.
But Bucky McMillan is building something special in Homewood, Alabama, and they call it Bucky Ball.
The Bulldogs play fast, and I mean FAST. They full-court press, push the tempo and create a blur of activity up and down the court. Samford is aggressive at all times, firing up 3s and pushing the pace, gambling for turnovers on defense even when it leaves open buckets when it fails.
Ten different Samford players play at least 12 minutes a game, and not one of them plays more than 22. Eight of the top 12 rotation guys — and remember, all of them play — shot at least 38% on 3s for the season. The Bulldogs rank top 10 in the nation in pace, 3-point percentage and turnovers forced.
Bucky Ball is awesome, and McMillan has won back-to-back-to-back Coach of the Year awards in the conference.
This is a team absolutely tailor-made for America to fall in love for a week of March Madness.
Samford has some monster wins, but it also lost to Purdue by 43 in the opener. The Bulldogs might be fast-track bullies against lesser competition. They'll hope to face a team with weaker guards that can't handle the ball pressure, and they'll want a fast-paced game that stays frenetic and unpredictable.
The Southern Conference is only 4-44 all time as a 12-seed or worse, but Furman won last season as a 13-seed, and Stephen Curry's Davidson nearly made the final Four as a 10-seed. Could Samford be America's next Southern darling?
Projected seed: 12
Yale (Ivy League champion…?)
We're cheating a bit here, because Yale hasn't actually won its conference yet. The Bulldogs will have to beat Brown on Sunday to get in, but they'll be happy to face the Bears who upset heavily-favored Princeton.
The Ivy League was really strong this season. Princeton, Yale and Cornell — the team Yale just beat Saturday — all rank top 100 in KenPom, with Princeton nearly cracking the top 50.
Princeton, you recall, was last year's Cinderella Sweet 16 team. The Tigers won twice as a 15-seed with Tosan Evbuomwan leading the way, defeating 2-seed Arizona and 7-seed Missouri before pushing Creighton all the way in a single-digit loss.
That was hardly the first big March Madness success story for the Ivy League. The conference has been one of the best sources of early upsets and close calls since 2010:
- 2023: 15-seed Princeton upsets 2-seed Arizona and 7-seed Missouri before losing by 9
- 2019: 14-seed Yale loses by 5
- 2017: 12-seed Princeton loses by 2
- 2016: 12-seed Yale upsets 5-seed Baylor before losing by 7
- 2015: 13-seed Harvard loses by 2
- 2014: 12-seed Harvard upsets 5-seed Cincinnati before losing by 7
- 2013: 14-seed Harvard upsets 3-seed New Mexico
- 2012: 12-seed Harvard loses by 9
- 2011: 13-seed Princeton loses by 2
- 2010: 12-seed Cornell upsets 4-seed Temple and 5-seed Wisconsin
That's seven upsets since 2010 by a 12-seed-or-worse Ivy League team, including a pair of Sweet 16 teams. And that's for a conference that only ever gets one tourney berth per season, so that's seven wins in 12 tournaments (the Ivy League didn't send a representative in 2021). Eight of the 12 eventual losses came by single digits, three of them by two points.
Ivy League teams tend to play true to form — they play smart, hit a lot of 3s, don't beat themselves and give their team a chance late in a close game.
Yale has only one win in the modern tourney with two more close calls, all under coach James Jones, now in his 25th season with the Bulldogs. This team lost by 15 at Gonzaga and Kansas, respectable losses, and crushed a good Colgate squad. They play super slow and are a balanced team that defends well and scores efficiently.
Yale's overall profile looks better than Princeton's did a year ago. Could the Bulldogs continue the Ivy League's run of March overachievers?
Projected seed: 12
