Typically, you can get an early glimpse at college basketball betting lines when looking at KenPom's projected score. To some extent, KenPom's projections mirror the official betting odds — give or take a point or two.
Given the vast impact KenPom has on betting, some programs will inevitably be undervalued early in the season, so let's take a look at five underrated college basketball teams heading into the new campaign.
IUPUI Jaguars
I know all the hoops diehards audibly gasped when seeing "IUPUI" appear on an "underrated" list. I hear you.
But hear me out: Matt Crenshaw finally has a squad capable of competing in the Horizon after winning just eight games over the past two seasons.
KenPom suggests IUPUI is the second-worst team in the conference and 320th nationally. I see them more in the 250-260 range nationally and seventh in the conference rather than 10th. Opposing teams such as Green Bay, Detroit Mercy and Purdue Fort Wayne have much more arduous seasons ahead.
The talent is there for IUPUI, starting with all-conference-caliber guard Jlynn Counter and a pair of promising sophomores, Vincent Brady II and DJ Jackson.
The mid-range assassin — Counter — needs to focus on consistency from 3-point range to fully break out, but he's one of the league's better scorers.
Also, I'm a fan of the moves made in the offseason, adding Kidtrell Blocker (Buffalo) and Qwanzi Samuels (GW) to improve the depth. Lack of depth and availability has plagued IUPUI over the first two years of Crenshaw’s time at his alma mater.
Lastly, don't expect IUPUI to win the Horizon League. That's not the pick here; I just expect IUPUI to cover some games with long spreads while being difficult to stop.
Boise State Broncos
The Broncos feel incredibly undervalued to begin the season.
A big reason is head coach Leon Rice. He's a consistent winner, rattling off consecutive NCAA tournament bids and several 20+ win seasons.
The gap between Boise State, New Mexico and San Diego State feels razor-thin, but KenPom's projections imply otherwise.
Of course, Boise State lost starting guard Marcus Shaver Jr., but it returned its three other best players — Tyson Degenhart, Max Rice, and Chibuzo Agbo. The trio combined for around 40 points per game last season. In today's world, it's rare to return that much production.
Who is Boise State giving the ball to in big moments? That guy is UC San Diego transfer Roddie Anderson III, a shifty, smaller guard who should inject a jolt of offense and playmaking into the Broncos.
In contrast to last season, Boise State's depth is actually existent. It's not San Diego State deep, but it won't force Coach Rice to play all five starters for 29+ minutes per game again.
Rice reached into the portal to grab high-major forwards O'Mar Stanley (St John's) and Cam Martin (Kansas), and improvements from Jace Whiting and Kobe Young should lengthen the rotation.
As for the two import forwards, Stanley's athleticism will help replace Naje Smith, whose energetic style of play is reminiscent of Stanley.
Lastly, Martin has great size and is a total mismatch up front thanks to his clean shooting stroke next to Degenhart.
I love the Broncos this season. They're much closer to top-25 nationally than 64th in KenPom.
Syracuse Orange
Syracuse fans' patience level is wearing thin after the past two brutal losing seasons. Something had to change, so legendary head coach Jim Boeheim called it quits, ending his coaching career after putting together nearly 50 years of excellence.
The Orange might be the most underrated team in KenPom's rankings. The Orange are a top-40 team for me, while KenPom puts them 105th in the initial rankings.
I don't quite get it.
I know the Orange lost some pieces — Jesse Edwards and Joe Girard III — but the biggest win may be Jim Boeheim retiring. It opens the door for a new style of basketball under Red Autry, which I expect on its own to result in multiple wins.
On the roster front, it's hard to question the guard duo of Judah Mintz and Notre Dame transfer JJ Starling. Those two each came into college as top-100 recruits and could develop into one of the better guard duos in America.
As a freshman, Mintz put together a solid season, averaging 16 points and four dimes per contest.
Those two alone make Syracuse better than 105th nationally. But it comes down to the ancillary pieces to determine how good the Orange will be.
The names to watch are Florida State 7-foot-4 transfer Naheem McLeod and wings Benny Williams and Chris Bell. Those three must adequately defend their positions and hit an occasional 3 (in the case of Williams and Bell).
Finding a way to unlock Williams' potential is also how to unlock Syracuse's full potential. The former top-40 recruit three seasons ago never seemed in Boeheim's good graces. The constant benching, disappointed looks and inconsistent playing time stunted Williams' growth.
Now it's time for the 6-foot-9 combo forward to finally come into his own — with a coach who believes in his ability. Williams is super athletic, active on the glass and even flashed an improved jumper last season.
Syracuse will benefit from Williams' growth if he's a reliable third option next to the guards.
While Williams is currently suspended for a violation of team rules, he's expected to rejoin the team soon.
Buy all the Syracuse stock while it's still possible.
Ole Miss Rebels
The Kermit Davis era in Oxford ended in inauspicious fashion — the Rebels finished near the bottom of the league in two consecutive seasons. Ole Miss had to hire the right guy to get the train back on the tracks. And who better than Chris Beard to take the job?
Ole Miss' ceiling is a bit zapped until we get official waiver decisions on Moussa Cisse and Brandon Murray. It won't end in the Rebels' favor, especially if the other waivers in college hoops are any indication.
However, Beard can rely on veterans Matthew Murrell, Jaemyn Brakefield and Allen Flanigan (Auburn) to carry the offensive attack.
Murrell tested the NBA draft waters following a strong junior season. He averaged 14.4 points but saw major dips in shooting efficiency. I love Murrell's potential in a more modern offense, where floor spacing isn't an issue.
In addition, one of the members of the new crew is Jamarion Sharp, a 7-foot-5 phenom from Western Kentucky who's known for his shot-blocking skills.
Beard, who led Texas Tech on multiple NCAA tournament runs, including to a national title game, is known for being a defensive-minded coach. If Ole Miss can follow a similar formula, it starts with the shot-swatter inside.
Sharp was one of the first big portal moves Beard made, as he emphasized keeping his defensive identity intact. In two seasons at Western Kentucky, Sharp swatted away 279 shots and had multiple double-digit block performances.
Besides the waiver questions, point guard questions loom. Ole Miss has two lead guards on its roster — Jaylen Murray (Saint Peter's) and Austin Nunez (Arizona State). Whoever starts is probably the worst starting point guard in the SEC to begin the season, so that's a cause for concern.
Even so, I expect Ole Miss to finish top-60 at worst instead of outside the top 80.
Milwaukee Panthers
The hiring of Bart Lundy at Milwaukee has aged incredibly well; the Panthers won 22 games and finished second in the Horizon League in his first season on campus. He’s a proven winner who brings an exciting display of offense to the program.
Speaking of exciting, returning wing BJ Freeman will vie for the conference's Player of the Year award. The 6-foot-6 scoring dynamo averaged 18.2 points and scored 29 points in three of the Panthers' final five games last season.
Another star waiting in the wings is sophomore Elijah Jamison, one of the Horizon’s true breakout candidates.
The Panthers could get 35 points per game between their top two scoring options.
Additionally, it’s important for transfers Langston Wilson (Washington), Erik Pratt (Texas A&M) and Learic Davis (Tennessee State) to play complementary roles to the above duo.
In KenPom’s early-season rankings, Milwaukee is 230th nationally, which will look much different once the season gets rolling.
I can’t see the Panthers finishing outside the top 200. There’s too much coaching and skill here to see that happening.
