Editor's Note: This guest post is from PoolGenius, whose expert bracket picks and tools have helped subscribers win over $2.5 million in prizes since 2017.
When it comes to filling out your March Madness bracket picks, standing out from the crowd is key—especially if you're in a larger pool. It's not just about picking Cinderella stories; it's about finding undervalued teams with real paths to advance that your fellow bracket pickers are sleeping on.
Below, we’ll run through seven of those March Madness bracket picks that can help differentiate your bracket and improve your chances of winning.
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7 Bracket Picks to Stand Out From the Crowd
The following NCAA bracket picks use PoolGenius for odds to advance (which may be different from other sources) and public pick rates, which are aggregated from multiple bracket platforms for reliability.
These rates will change as more brackets are submitted, so check PoolGenius for the latest updates closer to Thursday to make sure you're using the most accurate pick data.
No. 12 UC-San Diego over No. 5 Michigan
- Odds to win: 42%
- Public pick rate: 19%
One of the most overlooked teams in the bracket, UC-San Diego has a 42% chance to win its First Round game, but only 19% of brackets are picking them. Michigan is on short rest after claiming the Big Ten Tournament, and they seem a tad overrated by the public despite playing in close games all season.
If you’re looking for a high-value upset regardless of your pool’s structure, this is one of the best plays on the board. The betting markets have UCSD listed as a small 2.5-point underdog.
No. 12 Colorado State to Sweet 16
- Odds to advance: 35.7%
- Public pick rate: 8.4%
Our models love Colorado State in the First Round after their MWC Tournament run, making them one of the best “upset” bracket picks to take down Memphis (despite actually being favored in betting markets). Naturally, the Rams make for a strong sleeper pick to reach the Sweet 16 as well.
If Colorado State handles business against the Tigers, they would get either Maryland or Grand Canyon in the Second Round. Maryland would be the better pick if you are in a standard-scoring league with fewer than 50 people. However, if you are in a larger league or one that has upset bonuses, Colorado State to the Sweet 16 makes for a nice leverage pick.
No. 11 North Carolina or San Diego State to Sweet 16
- Odds to advance: 25.6%
- Public pick rate: 10%
Every year, play-in teams are undervalued by casual bracket pickers. The winner of North Carolina vs. San Diego State in the First Four could be even money or slightly favored over No. 6 Mississippi — which we rate as the weakest No. 6 seed in the tournament.
Plus, at-large play-in teams historically perform better in the First Round after picking up momentum in Dayton. The Second Round would likely feature a matchup against Iowa State, a team that is not fully healthy.
No. 6 Illinois to Sweet 16
- Odds to advance: 34.1%
- Public pick rate: 24.5%
Illinois has been up and down all year, struggling with injuries and lineup changes. However, they’re putting it all together at the right time.
The Illini will take on the play-in winner (Texas/Xavier), then likely No. 3 Kentucky — a team we rate nearly identical to Illinois. Coming off four wins in their last five games (including victories over Purdue and at Michigan), the Illini could be peaking at the right time.
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No. 7 Kansas to Sweet 16
- Odds to advance: 29.1%
- Public pick rate: 14.8%
No, this is hardly the same Kansas team that won it all in 2022, and they’ve struggled with consistency. However, they’re a 4.5 to 5-point favorite in the First Round against Arkansas, which could be missing top scorer and rebounder Adou Thiero.
If Kansas advances, a matchup against St. John’s looms, where they’d likely be a short underdog but still very capable of pulling off the upset. This is another leverage play in large pools or one that rewards upset bonuses.
Texas Tech to Final Four
- Odds to advance: 13.5%
- Public pick rate: 7.4%
This pick pairs well with Kansas because Texas Tech could be waiting in the Sweet 16, making it easier to structure a strategic bracket.
While a potential Second Round matchup against Drake or Missouri won't be a walk in the park, the Red Raiders are a 15.5-point favorite in the First Round and have a reasonable path to the Elite Eight. They have similar odds of reaching that stage compared to No. 2 seed St. John's, but fewer people are picking them that far.
If you're looking to fade Florida to the Final Four — who is over-picked relative to their odds — Texas Tech is a sharp pivot in the West Region.
No. 1 Houston to Win the NCAA Tournament
- Odds to win: 10.5%
- Public pick rate: 9.8%
Houston is a smart pivot in large pools if you want a different champion without going too bold.
Looking across the other No. 1 seeds, Florida is being over-picked, Auburn has been trending down to finish the season, and Duke is dealing with injury questions surrounding star player Cooper Flagg.
Then there’s Houston, who has metrics that stack up with the top teams, and they have a winnable region despite a potentially tough Second Round matchup against Gonzaga.
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