The Abilene Christian Wildcats take on the East Texas A&M Lions in Commerce, TX. Tip-off is set for 12 p.m. ET on ESPN+.
Abilene Christian is favored by 8.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -375. The total is set at 141 points.
Here are my Abilene Christian vs East Texas A&M predictions and college basketball picks for December 18, 2024.
Abilene Christian vs East Texas A&M Prediction
My Pick: Abilene Christian -9.5 or Better
My Abilene Christian vs East Texas A&M best bet is on the Wildcats spread, with the best odds currently available at DraftKings. For all of your college basketball bets, find the best lines using our live NCAAB odds page.
Abilene Christian vs East Texas A&M Odds
| Abilene Christian Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-8.5 -108 | 141 -110o / -110u | -375 |
| East Texas A&M Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+8.5 -112 | 141 -110o / -110u | +295 |
- Abilene Christian vs East Texas A&M spread: Abilene Christian -8.5
- Abilene Christian vs East Texas A&M over/under: 141 points
- Abilene Christian vs East Texas A&M moneyline: Abilene Christian -375, East Texas A&M +295
- Abilene Christian vs East Texas A&M best bet: Abilene Christian -9.5 or Better
Spread
I'm laying the points with the road favorite.
Moneyline
I'm passing on the moneyline.
Over/Under
I'm passing on the over/under.
My Pick: Abilene Christian -9.5 or Better
Abilene Christian vs East Texas A&M College Basketball Betting Preview
Have we reached the bottom of the market on East Texas A&M? The Lions haven’t won a game in over a month, losing to two KenPom sub-300 squads (Stonehill, Houston Christian) during the stretch.
That said, I’m surprised Abilene Christian has a winning record, given opponents are shooting a whopping 45% from deep against the Wildcats. Southern Miss and Montana State shot a combined 26-for-42 (62%) against the Wildcats on an MTE back-to-back during Feast Week.
Ultimately, I suspect Abilene is due for positive shooting regression on that end of the court and is thus undervalued.
The Wildcats run a perimeter-oriented defense that does a solid job of running opponents off the 3-point line, so it’s almost inconceivable they have run into this much tough luck. ShotQuality projects opponents should be shooting closer to 33% from 3 against them, given the “quality” of attempts allowed.
Conversely, East Texas A&M's offense relies almost entirely on drive-and-kick, catch-and-shoot 3-point attempts. It takes precisely half of its shots from deep (16th nationally). The Lions aren’t good at running this offense, ranking sub-220th nationally in Open 3 Rate, which is likely why they rank bottom-10 nationally in offensive efficiency.
Thus, I suspect Abilene Christian will contest and deny most of East Texas A&M’s triples, and all of that positive regression will finally hit the Wildcats, resulting in a gross day for the Lions’ offense.
On the other end of the court, I’m not the biggest fan of Abilene Christian’s half-court offense, which is far too mid-range heavy for my liking.
However, the Wildcats’ harassing perimeter on-ball defense (top-25 nationally in steal rate) should generate plenty of turnovers against a Lions squad that can’t hang on to the rock (last in offensive steal rate).
Everybody has pressed East Texas A&M so far with success (.76 press PPP, 22nd percentile), and Abilene Christian should do the same.
In turn, that should generate plenty of easy Wildcat run-outs against East Texas A&M’s abhorrent transition defense (1.07 PPP allowed, 26th percentile; 13 fast-break points per game allowed, 11th percentile).
Ultimately, I’m banking on Abilene Christian finally catching an opponent on an off-shooting night. The Wildcats should respond by scoring frequently and efficiently in transition, leading to a relatively comfortable double-digit victory.
