From the beginning of January to the end of March, college basketball offers as good of a three-month stretch as it gets in sports.
Teams begin by battling it out in conference play, with every game going a long way in determining seeding for both the conference and NCAA tournaments, as well as the opportunity to fight for a regular season title.
The pieces of the puzzle slowly come together, and it all leads up to March.
One conference, in particular, that I will have my eye on the rest of the way is the ACC. Arguably the most historic conference in college basketball, the ACC has taken on a good deal of scrutiny in recent years.
The league is stronger than it was a year ago, but there have still been some disappointments to begin the season.
In this first ACC State of the Conference, I've sorted the league into four distinct tiers and will touch on where things currently stand for all 15 schools.
As the year goes on, I will continue to focus on the conference race, as well as marquee matchups, dangerous tournament teams, players to watch and other injury news.
Buckle up for a fun ride ahead.
All odds are via DraftKings
Tier 1: Regular Season Title Contenders
Duke Blue Devils (+250)
No team had higher expectations in the ACC entering this season than Duke.
It’s been a bit of a bumpy start for Jon Scheyer and company, but the recent victory over Baylor showed how good this team can be.
Getting Tyrese Proctor back healthy will also provide a major boost, and the Blue Devils need to start getting more consistent shooting from its guards.
Kyle Filipowski remains one of the best players in the entire country, and veteran Ryan Young is a nice big to have available off the bench.
Despite sloppy losses to Arkansas and Georgia Tech, Duke is still rightfully the favorite to win the regular season title.
North Carolina Tar Heels (+300)
I’ve been really impressed with the Tar Heels thus far.
Hubert Davis scheduled a gauntlet of a non-conference slate, and Carolina has held up just fine during it.
The Tar Heels have big-time wins over Tennessee and Oklahoma, as well as a thrashing of Arkansas. The only losses are to UConn, Kentucky and Villanova, and the two Wildcat games could've easily swung the other way.
RJ Davis has been fantastic, and Notre Dame transfer Cormac Ryan gives this team a veteran presence who can guard and knock down open shots.
Lastly, there’s the old head Armando Bacot, who continues to be one of the most reliable bigs in the country on the glass and a threat to score every time he touches it.
Miami Hurricanes (+500)
No team in the league has been a better representative in March over the last couple of seasons than the Hurricanes.
An Elite Eight trip in 2022 followed by a Final Four run in 2023 had expectations sky high for Jim Larranaga’s team entering the season.
Given those expectations, the start to the year has been a bit of a disappointment for Miami.
The Canes lost by 20+ to both Kentucky and Colorado, and the best win on their resume is probably a victory over Kansas State in the Bahamas.
That being said, with Nijel Pack and Wooga Poplar in the backcourt, this team can beat anybody on any given night.
Look for the Canes to be in the thick of the ACC race from January to March.
Clemson Tigers (+500)
Without question, this is the surprise team of the conference to this point.
After just missing out on the NCAA tournament a year ago, Brad Brownell’s team has entered 2023-2024 with a vengeance.
Clemson has beaten Alabama, TCU, South Carolina, Boise State and Pitt, and its only loss came by two at Memphis.
As a result, the Tigers currently have a top-10 resume in the country and are in great position entering conference play.
I don’t really think any of it is fluky either. This group has the goods to challenge for an ACC banner.
Virginia Cavaliers (+550)
Virginia has been a bit of an enigma thus far this season.
There have been times when Tony Bennett’s team has looked like its old self, including in a 59-47 win over Texas A&M and a 84-62 beatdown of Syracuse. Then there have been games like Wisconsin and Memphis, when the Cavaliers have looked lost offensively and outclassed.
No program has been more consistent over the last decade in this league than the Hoos, so I once again anticipate Bennett figuring things out and having this group right in the mix for a regular season title.
Finding a third option as a consistent scorer behind Reece Beekman and Isaac McKneely would go a long way in taking this team to the next level.
Ryan Dunn appears most poised to be that guy.
Tier 2: Tournament Hopefuls
Wake Forest Demon Deacons (+2500)
Efton Reid III gaining eligibility in early December has been a massive boost for the Demon Deacons.
Gonzaga transfer Hunter Sallis has been explosive all year for Steve Forbes, and Cameron Hildreth is a veteran who can do a little bit of everything.
Losses to Georgia, Utah and LSU in a nine day stretch in November will hurt their resume, but since November 19, the Deacs haven't lost and have added wins over Florida and Rutgers.
Expect this team to finish inside the top half of the ACC and be right on the bubble come Selection Sunday.
NC State Wolfpack (+2500)
NC State has won all of the games it was supposed to and has struggled against high-level competition.
The road win at Boston College was massive to start 1-0 in the league, and another very winnable road game is next for the Pack at Notre Dame on January 3.
DJ Horne and DJ Burns Jr. combined for 31 points on 12-of-22 shooting in a narrow loss to Tennessee, and that duo will need to continue to carry the load for Kevin Keatts.
The Wolfpack just got into the tournament in 2023 and will likely stay close to the bubble once again in 2024.
Finding a way to win home games against the likes of Virginia, North Carolina and Duke will go a long way in determining NC State's fate.
Virginia Tech Hokies (+2500)
The Hokies are a team I remain high on, in large part due to its veteran backcourt of Hunter Cattoor and Sean Pedulla.
You’d be hard pressed to find a better duo of pure shooters in the entire country, let alone the ACC.
There are some real concerns on the defensive end, but Lynn Kidd continues to make a significant jump on the inside.
If there was a team within this tier that I would feel most comfortable declaring will make the NCAA tournament, it would be Virginia Tech.
Additionally, I don’t hate a small dart at 25/1 on the Hokies to win the league because they can fill it up with anybody on just about any night.
Pitt Panthers (+3500)
Jeff Capel broke through and got Pitt into the NCAA tournament a year ago, where it would go on to win two games.
This is a big season to build off of that momentum, and it’s been a mixed bag for the Panthers so far.
The good news is Pittsburgh has won four in a row and there's not a single bad loss on its resume.
The bad news is a lack of a quality wins in the non-conference will put added pressure on this team to perform in league play.
Saturday night’s tilt at Syracuse will be a big one, as an 0-2 ACC start would put the Panthers behind schedule.
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Tier 3: Trying to Figure it Out
Florida State Seminoles (+6000)
Leonard Hamilton had a rare bad year in 2022-2023 and questions started to loom about his retirement. Hamilton insisted he still wanted to coach and that the Noles would be much better this season.
Thus far, that hasn’t exactly been the case. Florida State does have a big win over Colorado that will have mileage all the way to Selection Sunday, but other than that, the resume is quite poor.
Losses to Georgia, South Florida and SMU in the non-conference will be hard to overcome.
I do think you’ll see this young, talented team start to improve significantly in conference play, but a 12-8 or 13-7 ACC record may be required to get the Noles back in the Big Dance.
Syracuse Orange (+9000)
The Jim Boeheim era has come to an end, and here comes Red Autry.
Led by stud point guard Judah Mintz, the Orange are helping their new coach in his first year.
All three losses are to high-quality competition in Gonzaga, Tennessee and Virginia.
Additionally, Cuse has notched double-digit victories over LSU, Georgetown and Oregon.
Fighting for an NCAA tournament bid still seems a little bit unrealistic, but with a player like Mintz, anything can happen.
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (+15000)
Enter Damon Stoudamire, who has the Yellow Jackets competing hard in his first year in Atlanta.
Georgia Tech is 1-0 in league play, with a massive home win over Duke. It also beat Mississippi State and Penn State in the non-conference.
There's an ugly home loss to UMass Lowell, but other than that, this is a decent early resume for a team that had minimal expectations.
Expect Georgia Tech to continue to compete throughout conference play.
Boston College Eagles (+15000)
While there aren’t any big-time wins on the resume, Boston College has quietly been playing some pretty good basketball.
The Eagles did beat St. John’s on a neutral floor, and the only non-conference losses were to quality mid-majors in Colorado State and Loyola Chicago.
This is an important year for Earl Grant, and I would expect Boston College to finish right near the middle of the pack in the ACC race.
Tier 4: Dumpster Fires
Notre Dame Fighting Irish (+30000)
It’s hard to fault Micah Shrewsberry for the brutal start to his first year in South Bend; no coach in the conference was left with a more barren cupboard after Mike Brey’s retirement a year ago.
The Irish have been playing hard, but this is simply not an ACC roster.
Expect Notre Dame to win a couple of league games throughout the year, but this will be a team that finishes right near the basement of the conference.
Louisville Cardinals (+30000)
After a historically bad year one for Kenny Payne and Louisville, things really haven’t improved much in year two.
It’s bizarre seeing Louisville basketball this bad, and it’s hard to envision any sort of real turnaround in conference play.
Payne will likely not get a third year.
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