Georgia Tech vs. Florida State Odds
| GA Tech Odds | +4.5 |
| Florida St Odds | -4.5 |
| Moneyline | +160 / -195 |
| Over/Under | 145.5 |
| Time | Saturday, 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
| Odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. | |
The road to the ACC Championship has been a wild one, to say the least.
Georgia Tech's path to the final was much easier than usual. The Yellow Jackets defeated 13-seed Miami in the quarterfinals on Thursday, then advanced through the semifinals after their matchup against Virginia was canceled Friday morning due to to a positive COVID-19 test in the Virginia program.
Make no mistake, though, this Yellow Jackets team is a very deserving finalist. They're winners of seven straight, including their last six regular season games. The late season run vaulted the Jackets into the No. 4 seed to earn a coveted double-bye. Josh Pastner's club is clicking on both ends of the floor and will be a dangerous team in the NCAA Tournament.
Florida State also played just one game to get here. The Seminoles' quarterfinal matchup with Duke was canceled on Thursday when a member of the Blue Devils program tested positive for COVID-19.
In Friday's lone semifinal game, the Seminoles got off to a great start, building an 11-point halftime lead over North Carolina. The Noles then held on after a second-half surge from the Tar Heels to pull out a three-point victory.
While the talk of this tournament has been centered around the games that didn't happen, we still have a great championship game when it's all said and done.
Florida State and Georgia Tech split a pair of regular season meetings, and the rubber match in Greensboro with the ACC title on the line should be a great one.
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets | (16-8, 11-6 ACC)
The Yellow Jackets have been much improved offensively this season and rank 30th in adjusted offensive efficiency, per KenPom.
The emergence of ACC Player of the Year Moses Wright in the post has been massive for this team. Wright posts a team leading 17.5 points and 8.0 rebounds per game. Wright is also a force on the defensive end. He puts up 1.5 steals and 1.6 blocks per game, both of which rank in the top 10 of the ACC.
Jose Alvarado and and Michael DeVoe form one of the top backcourts in the conference and are underrated nationally.
Alvarado is the heart and soul of the Yellow Jackets. He's second on the team in scoring (15.4 ppg) and leads the team in assists (4.2 per game). He was just named the ACC Defensive Player of the Year in large part due to his conference best 2.9 steals per game.
DeVoe is a crafty wing who can score in a variety of ways, and a perfect compliment to Alvarado.
A huge key to the Yellow Jackets' success this season is how well DeVoe and Alvarado have shot the ball. Alvarado is a career best 40.4% from 3-point range this season, and DeVoe is right there with him at 39.9%. When these two are on, the Jackets are incredibly tough to stop since teams also have to worry about Wright in the post. The Jackets' strong outside shooting makes it risky to double Wright when he gets the ball, and it essentially becomes a pick-your-poison scenario for the defense.
Georgia Tech struggled defensively at the beginning of the season, notably in upset losses to Georgia State and Mercer. They were able to right the ship during conference play, and the improvement on defense is the biggest reason the Yellow Jackets find themselves in the ACC title game and a lock for the NCAA tournament.
Despite the slow start, the Yellow Jackets rank a solid 52nd in adjusted defensive efficiency. Their biggest strength defensively is forcing turnovers. Georgia Tech ranks 26th in opponent turnover percentage, causing opponents to cough it up on 21.8% of their possessions, per TeamRankings. Three Yellow Jackets rank in the top 10 in the ACC in steals per game, with Jordan Usher (1.6) joining Alvarado and Wright.
Florida State Seminoles | (16-5, 11-4 ACC)
The Seminoles have been a model of consistency under Leonard Hamilton. This season is proof of that, as it's one of Hamilton's best coaching jobs.
The Seminoles were expected to take a step back after losing two lottery picks from last season, but Hamilton reloaded and has his team in position to win the ACC title.
The Seminoles' success stems from its balance, depth, and team size and athleticism. They can overwhelm teams defensively with their ability to relentlessly pressure opposing guards and disrupt half-court sets. Not a single Seminole plays more than 30 minutes per game, which allows them to keep players fresh while gradually wearing the opponent down as the game progresses.
Scottie Barnes, the ACC Freshman of the Year and Sixth Man of the Year, is a perfect fit in Hamilton's system. The 6-foot-9 freshman is a special talent, possessing the ability to run the point on offense and guard any position on defense. Barnes gets the offense going and leads the Seminoles in assists (4.3 per game) and is the third leading scorer (10.5 ppg). If there's one weakness to his game, it's his outside shooting — he's just 25.7% from 3-point range this season.
Outside of Barnes, Florida State is a fantastic outside shooting team. The Seminoles are 38.5% from beyond the arc as a team, the best percentage in the ACC and 13th best in the nation.
However, the Seminoles' shooting splits at home as opposed to the road is quite concerning. Florida State is 42.6% from beyond the arc in home games and just 31.2% on the road, per Team Rankings.
With this in mind, the Seminoles' shooting performance in their first neutral-site game of the season was something I paid close attention to last night.
They didn't shoot a ton of 3s against the Tar Heels but were solid, knocking down 5-of-13 attempts (38.5%). The Seminoles struggled from the outside in all four conference road losses, including a 3-of-14 (21.4%) performance in the 76-65 loss at Georgia Tech in January.
Betting Analysis & Pick
This has the makings of a tight game, and I think both defenses will shine. Georgia Tech (212th in adjusted tempo) plays much slower than the Seminoles and knows it will have to control the pace in order to pull out the win.
The total opened at 148.5, which was surprising given that the two regular-season meetings between these teams yielded point totals of 141 and 135, and neither team has the familiarity of shooting in its home gym in this contest.
Unfortunately, the best of the number is long gone as the total has quickly been bet down to 145.5 across the market. However, I still think there's some value at the current number and would play it down to 145.
Pick: Under 145.5 (down to 145).
