ACC Tournament · Second Round Betting Preview
It was a pretty exciting first day in the ACC Tournament, with two of the three first-round games going down to the wire.
There are four second-round games on Wednesday, with the first game starting at 12 p.m. ET and the last matchup likely ending close to midnight.
Here are my quick-hit thoughts on all four contests.
Wake Forest vs. Syracuse Odds
| Wake Forest Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -102 | 153.5 -110o / -110u | -156 |
| Syracuse Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -120 | 153.5 -110o / -110u | +130 |
Strangely enough, we get a rematch from four days ago that ended in a convincing nine-point Orange win up in Syracuse.
Wake has a pretty solid zone offense, ranking in the 62nd percentile in PPP against zone. However, the Deacons rank in the 90th percentile in PPP against man, so it’s a surprisingly weird matchup.
Additionally, a lot of Wake’s offense relies on free throws, and the only thing Syracuse does right on defense is not foul (first in ACC in FTR allowed).
So, it’s unsurprising to hear that Wake has lost four of its past five against Syracuse, mostly because it struggles to score despite Tyree Appleby.
I tend to think the totals in these games are set too high. And as expected, four of the past five games between the Deacons and Orange have stayed under the listed total.
Meanwhile, Syracuse’s offense is a complete mess, so that’s not deterring me from betting an under.
Even better, this game is being played on a neutral court at Noon local time, which makes me really love this under.
I’ll take a shot on the under 153.5 number available across the market. Meanwhile, the ShotQualityBets’ model makes the total only 149.2.
Pick: Under 153.5 (Play to 150.5) |
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Georgia Tech vs. Pitt Odds
| Georgia Tech Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -102 | 143.5 -110o / -110u | +235 |
| Pitt Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -120 | 143.5 -110o / -110u | -295 |
Watching Ja’von Franklin snag 19 boards in the comeback against Florida State was pretty amazing.
He also snagged the last-second offensive board that led to him drawing the game-winning free-throw attempt.
Ja'Von Franklin recorded 19 rebounds to help carry Georgia Tech to a win in the ACC Tournament! A Georgia Tech ACC Tournament record!
— Def Pen Hoops (@DefPenHoops) March 7, 2023
That could play well against Pitt, as the Panthers don’t care to rebound. They ranked 12th in the league in defensive rebounding rate this season.
Another thing going Georgia Tech’s way is that Pitt’s offense is just average against zone defenses, ranking in the 53rd percentile in PPP. I’m not saying Georgia Tech runs a good zone, but the Panthers rank in the 90th percentile in PPP against man defenses, so it’s not the worst matchup.
I’m also partial to catching points with the slow-paced Yellow Jackets, so catching three possessions with them is nice.
The ShotQualityBets model makes this game a pick'em, so the Jackets are an interesting mid-afternoon ‘dog.
Pick: Georgia Tech +7 (Play to +6.5) |
Boston College vs. North Carolina Odds
| Boston College Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9.5 -114 | 138.5 -110o / -110u | +340 |
| North Carolina Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9.5 -106 | 138.5 -110o / -110u | -450 |
Boston College is hooping! The Eagles have won four of their past five games and laid the hammer on Louisville in an 18-point first-round victory.
Well, beating Louisville by 18 is not exactly a great accomplishment. But a wager on the red-hot, momentum-carrying Eagles is not the worst bet.
However, there are a few weird aspects to this matchup.
If North Carolina tries to play through the post while R.J. Davis and Caleb Love take off-the-dribble 3s, the Tar Heels would be playing into Boston College’s (arguably only) strengths. So, I’d like BC +10 there.
But if the Heels decide to go pick-and-roll heavy, the Eagles’ ball-screen coverage is very exploitable. So, I’d like UNC -10 in this instance.
But you never know what you’ll get with Hubert Davis’ squad, so I’ll pass on this contest. Maybe you could target the game live, depending on which game plan Davis goes with.
Pick: Pass
Virginia Tech vs. NC State Odds
| Virginia Tech Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -105 | 149.5 -106o / -114u | +122 |
| NC State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -115 | 149.5 -106o / -114u | -146 |
NC State uses an aggressive defense to force turnovers and get transition buckets.
Unfortunately for the Wolfpack, Virginia Tech’s Sean Pedulla spearheads an offense that’s 13th nationally in offensive turnover rate, meaning the Hokies rank top-10 nationally in transition possessions allowed (7.8 per game).
Additionally, Virginia Tech’s biggest deficiency is its atrocious ball-screen defense. However, the Wolfpack don’t attack in ball screens that often, preferring to work through D.J. Burns Jr. in the post.
If NC State wants to make this a post-on-post game, I’d give Justyn Mutts and Grant Basile the advantage every time.
Also, the ShotQualityBets model projects Virginia Tech as a four-point neutral-court favorite, so I like catching any points with the Hokies, who everyone is buying as a potential ACC bid-stealer.
Pick: Virginia Tech +3 (Play to +1) |
