The Power Five conference tournaments are finally here, and we all know what that means: Day Basketball.
Although our first three matchups in the ACC Tournament don’t have the same level of pop as some of the other Power 5 tournaments such as the Big 12 or the Big East, there is still a ton to get excited about.
In this article, I'm going to quickly preview the three opening round games from a pure matchup perspective and address each team's current standings in the ACC Tournament futures market, if applicable.
If you want a more in depth look into the ACC Tournament as a whole, make sure you check out Mike McNamara’s ACC Tournament preview where he takes a larger and more in depth look at who presents the most value from a futures perspective.
Georgia Tech vs. Florida State Odds
| Georgia Tech Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -104 | 146.5 -110o / -110u | -114 |
| Florida State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -118 | 146.5 -110o / -110u | -105 |
On paper, this is a lowly matchup between two of the bottom four teams in the ACC. However, there are a lot of reasons to believe we will get a very competitive game with two teams that believe they can play spoiler into the second round.
Georgia Tech in particular has been playing its best basketball as of late, winning six of its last eight games including an impressive win over an uber-talent Virginia Tech squad.
This high level of play from the Yellow Jacket’s down the stretch is shown in Georgia Tech improving the most in the Bayesian Performance Ratings over the last 30 days.
On the offensive end, Georgia Tech relies on its outside shooting in order to drive its offense. The Yellow Jackets rank fourth in the ACC in 3-point attempts, taking 42.1% of their total field goals from beyond the arc. This high volume of outside shots results in 38.7% of Georgia Tech’s points coming from the perimeter.
This outside shooting should be heavily emphasized against a Florida State defense that has been abysmal at defending the perimeter. The Seminoles rank dead-last in 3-point percentage defense, allowing their opponents to shoot 40.15% from beyond the arc, 348th nationally.
As a result, Florida State is giving up 35.7% of its total points from 3-point range, the 35th-highest rate in all of college basketball.
On the other end, Florida State will look to create penetration and get to the basket in order to generate offense. Although the Yellow Jackets are giving up 54.2% of their points from 2-point range, they have been effective at defending the rim. Georgia Tech ranks 75th nationally in block percentage at 10.9%.
This ability to protect the rim will be critical against a Florida State offense ranking 60th nationally in near-proximity percentage, according to Haslametrics.
I like the idea of backing Josh Pastner and Georgia Tech in this spot as they have shown far more fight down the stretch in what has been a disappointing season for both teams.
Pick: Georgia Tech -1.5 (Play to -2.5) |
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Louisville vs. Boston College Odds
| Louisville Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -102 | 135.5 -115o / -105u | +210 |
| Boston College Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -120 | 135.5 -115o / -105u | -260 |
In the second matchup of the day between Boston College and Louisville, I can’t guarantee a similar level of competitiveness.
Louisville has been the worst team in the ACC all season long, winning only four games in the entire campaign.
The Cardinals rank dead last in the ACC in both offensive and defensive efficiency to go with a turnover percentage of 22%, the highest rate in the conference.
Given these abysmal numbers on both ends of the floor you will not find me investing in the Cardinals even catching nearly six points against a lowly Boston College offense.
In addition, Boston College has been respectable on the defensive end, ranking fourth in the ACC in Turnover Percentage, while allowing just 48.2% of its total points to come from inside the 3-point line.
Forcing Louisville into low-percentage outside looks will be an effective strategy as the Cardinals have scored just 29.6% of their total points from the 3-point line, 222nd nationally.
In a game which will be awfully hard to predict motivations and outcome, I believe your best investment is on a Louisville team total under.
You have to question if the Cardinals even wanted to make the trip to the ACC Tournament and now match up against a Boston College team which has depth and an ability to create pressure on the defensive end.
Pick: Pass (Lean Louisville TT Under 66.5 or Better)
Notre Dame vs. Virginia Tech Odds
| Notre Dame Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -102 | 143.5 -115o / -105u | +240 |
| Virginia Tech Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -120 | 143.5 -115o / -105u | -300 |
To end the night, Mike Brey and Notre Dame will face off with a Virginia Tech team which has been labeled by some as a dark-horse in this ACC Tournament.
Although the Fighting Irish were able to pull off a win against Pittsburgh in Brey’s final home game, the Irish have been very poor down the stretch. The win against Pittsburgh was Notre Dame’s only win since a Jan. 28th victory over an abysmal Louisville team.
In addition to this poor form, the Irish will be going into the ACC Tournament without one of their key ball-handlers, as guard JJ Starling is rumored to be lost for the season due to lingering knee issues. Starling averaged 11.2 points per game for an Irish offense that averaged just 69.8 points per game in total.
This poor offensive output is the result of a unit which relies heavily on its outside shooting in order to score consistently. The Irish shoot the third-most 3s in the ACC with 44.2% of their total shots coming from beyond the arc. This has resulted in Notre Dame scoring 39.2% of its points from distance, the second-highest rate in the ACC.
If Notre Dame wants to rely on outside shooting against Virginia Tech’s defense, it will be in for a long night. The Hokies are allowing their opponents to score just 29.3% of their total points from 3-point range, the third-lowest rate in the conference.
Look for Virginia Tech to have much more success on the offensive end. The Hokies rank inside the top-70n in both 3-point and 2-point percentage, two areas the Irish rank outside the top 190.
In addition, Notre Dame has struggled to create pressure on the defensive end, forcing turnovers on just 13.6% of its opponents' possessions, one of the lowest rates in college basketball. This will be an issue when matched up against a Virginia Tech offense that ranks 13th nationally in turnover percentage at just 14.8%.
Given these advantages on both ends of the floor I predict the Hokies to come out firing and make a statement early against a Notre Dame team that has struggled down the stretch. I also love backing Mike Young with extended time to prepare for a Notre Dame team that has clear weaknesses.
In order to avoid a Notre Dame back-door if Virginia Tech shuts things down in the second half, I believe the best investment is on the Hokies in the first half.
