It’s time for the ACC Tournament semifinals in Greensboro, North Carolina. We have a couple of great matchups on deck that will determine who plays in the title game tomorrow evening.
First, the Duke Blue Devils and Miami Hurricanes meet after splitting their regular-season matchups with victories on their home courts. Then to cap off the evening, we have the Clemson Tigers taking on the Virginia Cavaliers. The Hoos comfortably won both regular-season matchups, so the Tigers will be looking for revenge.
Let’s rebound from yesterday’s quarterfinals and find the best betting approaches for both matchups.
Duke vs. Miami Odds
| Duke Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -110 | 144.5 -115o / -105u | -137 |
| Miami Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -110 | 144.5 -115o / -105u | +114 |
We start off the semis with a terrific matchup between Duke and Miami with both teams trending in the right direction heading into the NCAA Tournament. I believe the winner of this matchup will win the ACC Tournament title game tomorrow, as both match up great with Clemson and Virginia.
The Blue Devils have played terrific basketball over the past month, and it seems that this young corps is starting to grow and fit into its roles right before our eyes.
The Blue Devils completely flipped their season around after the controversial loss at Virginia back in early February, where a blatant foul call on Kyle Filipowski was missed at the buzzer and sent the game into overtime.
Maybe this was a blessing in disguise, as it seems like the Blue Devils have started to click on the offensive end of the floor after struggling through parts of the season. Their offense certainly clicked yesterday in an impressive 96-69 beatdown of Pitt.
However, Duke has a tall task in front of it, as the Hurricanes currently enter this matchup with the best offensive efficiency in the conference, along with the top 3-point mark.
But Duke has elevated its game. After sitting in the bottom 200 in adjusted offensive efficiency in late January, it now finds itself in the top 50. It's also been especially terrific at grabbing offensive rebounds, which has helped it in the scoring department.
As for the Hurricanes, they’ve had a terrific season of their own. The triple threat of Isaiah Wong, Nijel Pack and Jordan Miller has made them emerge as a Final Four threat.
Miami escaped a scrappy Wake Forest team yesterday, but things won't get easier tonight.
I certainly think the Hurricanes have the better offensive team, but it’s their defense that's a bit concerning. They haven't played their best basketball on the defensive end of the floor lately, and they will have to step up the intensity against a red-hot Duke team.
Miami doesn't force a ton of turnovers, and it sits in the bottom 100 of both opponent field-goal percentage and opponent offensive rebounding percentage.
As much as I think this is a good opportunity to take Duke, I think the best approach here is the under.
Duke is coming off a 96-point performance yesterday, but I think it will flash less offensive aggression here. Miami is also in the 300s in bench minutes, so we may also see some tired legs.
Given the Blue Devils like to slow things down, I expect the same thing here as they try to stifle Miami’s offensive attack.
Duke's ability to grab offensive rebounds against Miami’s weak box-outs should also help milk some extra clock. It’s a bit scary, but I like this under.
Pick: Under 145.5 (Play to 144.5) |
Clemson vs. Virginia Odds
| Clemson Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -110 | 127.5 -115o / -105u | +138 |
| Virginia Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -110 | 127.5 -115o / -105u | -166 |
Clemson stunningly dominated an NC State Wolfpack that was playing some extremely solid basketball last night. Despite trailing early, the Tigers dominated from the 10-minute mark in the first half onward and cruised to a victory.
Virginia, meanwhile, is coming off a solid performance of its own, presumably ending North Carolina’s NCAA Tournament hopes.
What sticks out to me in this matchup is both teams are excellent defensively. Both the Tigers and Cavaliers find themselves inside the top 50 in defensive efficiency. These squads do a great job of limiting their opponents to second chances on offense, as they both rank inside the top 35 in limiting offensive rebounds.
The Hoos are much smaller in length compared to the Tigers, which could be the difference down the stretch. It certainly didn’t impact the regular-season matchups, as Virginia took care of business both times.
Along with the height discrepancy, there's also the disparity in both of these teams' rotations. Virginia has a very thin bench, whereas Clemson has a bit more depth. In a tournament setting like this, the Hoos may start to suffer from fatigue.
I also expect Clemson to have some success shooting the 3-ball in this matchup. It's a top-35 unit in 3-point percentage nationally. And as good as Virginia’s defense is, its weakest area is defending the perimeter.
If Clemson stays hot offensively, this could get out of hand quickly since the Hoos are an absolute snail on offense. Even when trailing big in the second half, we rarely see Tony Bennett’s squad ramp up the tempo.
Simply put, I think we'll see a tightly-contested matchup given both of these strong defensive units. However, I like the size advantage and the depth of this Clemson team as opposed to the Hoos.
That's a massive edge in a tournament setting, so expect the Tigers to play with more intensity on both ends of the floor. I trust the Clemson offense a lot more than Virginia’s right now, and I think we’re getting some value on the Tigers because of the regular-season results.
I can’t seem to get these Virginia totals correct, so instead of taking the under, I will happily roll with the Tigers getting the points. If this matchup goes the way I think it will, these points will be valuable to have in our back pocket at the end of the game.
Pick: Clemson +3.5 (Play to +2.5) |
