The Alabama Crimson Tide take on the Duke Blue Devils in the Elite 8. Tip-off is set for 8:49 p.m. ET on TBS.
Duke is favored by 7.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -310. The total is set at 173.5 points.
Here are my Alabama vs. Duke predictions and college basketball picks for March 29, 2025.
Alabama vs Duke Predictions, Best Bet
- Pick: Duke -7.5 (Play to -8.5)
My Duke vs. Alabama best bet is on the Blue Devils spread, with the best odds currently available at DraftKings. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Alabama vs Duke Odds, Spread
| Alabama Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -118 | 174.5 -120o / -110u | +270 |
| Duke Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -102 | 174.5 -120o / -110u | -325 |
- Alabama vs Duke spread: Duke -7.5, Alabama +7.5
- Alabama vs Duke over/under: 174.5
- Alabama vs Duke moneyline: Duke ML -325, Alabama ML +270
Alabama vs Duke Spread
I like Duke on the spread up to -8.5.
Alabama vs Duke Over/Under
I have no play on the total.
My Pick: Duke -7.5 (Play to -8.5)
Alabama Crimson Tide vs Duke Blue Devils Picks, Betting Analysis
Alabama is fresh off the most impressive shooting exhibit the NCAA Tournament has ever laid eyes on. Some of that was BYU's defense, but Alabama has an extra layer of shot-making that very few teams possess.
Another squad that can bring a similar approach is the Duke Blue Devils, who eviscerated Arizona's defense in the Sweet 16 en route to cracking the century mark.
Cooper Flagg is the best player in the country, and he absolutely took over. Flagg scored 30 points with seven assists and can single-handedly shift a game like none other.
Nate Oats had a clear game plan versus the 3-point-heavy BYU Cougars. He was fine letting the Cougars settle for good looks from 2-point range and put an emphasis on defending the 3-point line. Duke's offensive dominance will put that game plan in the trash bin, though.
Flagg always has three players shot-ready to convert on the attention drawn to himself. Tyrese Proctor is the best shooter on Duke's roster at over 40%, Kon Knueppel is an electric scorer and Sion James made Arizona pay for leaving him open.
But that's the primary reason for Duke's offensive dominance. You either try to handle Flagg individually or bring a help defender and pray the shooters miss. That'll give Duke a good look at the hoop more times than not.
Nobody in Duke's rotation is shorter than 6-foot-5, and Alabama's best player — Mark Sears — is barely six-foot. The length and ability to cut off driving lanes will limit Sears. He loves probing and getting to the lane to draw fouls or dish to shooters, but Duke holds teams to 43% shooting from 2.
I don't know if Alabama can get many stops here. The Crimson Tide have a much smaller perimeter than the Blue Devils, which works to Duke's benefit, as Flagg can get into the lane and be a playmaker as a scorer or passer.
Despite Sears having electric quickness, Duke will game plan to keep him out of the lane. He's one of the best players in the country, but Duke can frustrate him with its size.
The Tide have been shooting 39% from deep since February 1, and it's only slightly aided by the crazy shooting in the Sweet 16. It was 37.4% prior to the game vs. the Cougars.
But Alabama really only has three shooters — Sears, Chris Youngblood and Aden Holloway.
Labaron Philon, Grant Nelson and Cliff Omoruyi are the three other key contributors. Philon is shooting 30% from deep, Nelson is a bad shooter and Omoruyi doesn't shoot at all. That'll put a lot of pressure on Sears, Youngblood and Holloway.
I think the real deciding factor is pace, as is the case in most Alabama games. Duke can push the tempo, but it tends to play slower games, sitting 257th in adjusted tempo since February 1.
The Crimson Tide are third in offensive efficiency in that same span but sit just 28th in defensive efficiency. Stopping teams inside the arc is the main problem for Alabama, as it's allowing teams to shoot 50.7% from 2.
Three of Alabama's last five losses were by nine-plus points, so losing by eight points is a real possibility, even for a team that can shoot like Bama.
