Alabama vs Kentucky Odds, Pick
| Alabama Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Total Points | Moneyline |
+2.5 -105 | 175.5 -110o / -110u | +130 |
| Kentucky Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Total Points | Moneyline |
-2.5 -115 | 175.5 -110o / -110u | -155 |
In a battle of SEC brutes, Kentucky looks to defend its floor against the conference's current-No. 1 seed Alabama on Saturday. These are two of college basketball's elite on the offensive end, with a total that's nearing 180 points. UK is the slight favorite on its home floor.
Can the Cats bounce back from a last-second loss to a Jalen Cook-less LSU squad on Wednesday, or will they fall victim to an Alabama team that continues to put up video-game numbers?
Alabama Crimson Tide
Few teams possess the all-out attack that Alabama does. This is an offense that averages less than 15 seconds per possession, shoots 3s on nearly half of its field goal attempts and in a blink of an eye can hang 100 points on any defense.
Take its last seven games for instance. Alabama has cleared the 80-point mark each time. How about 98 points? The Tide have cleared that number in five of those seven instances.
So, don’t be mistaken, if you come out slow or flat against this Alabama team, the deficit will quickly balloon to double-digits.
Alabama ranks No. 1 in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and ranks inside the top 15 in both 2-point and 3-point shooting. Nate Oats has built a title contender, with an experienced group that also ranks 32nd in average height. In general, the Tide grab offensive rebounds on 36% of possessions.
Mark Sears has established himself as one of the nation’s elite. He's scored 20+ points in all but two conference games this season, leading the team with 20.4 points per game. He and Hofstra transfer Aaron Estrada man a dominant backcourt that combines for 8.4 assists and 3.3 steals per game.
This offense is so well-balanced; it's extremely difficult to slow down. This is a rotation that can go 10 deep at any given point, with enough shooters and size inside the break down any defense. Every single mid-major transfer who's come over to Bama has provided a significant boost.
The biggest flaw for this team — which I broke down here in my reasoning for betting Florida on Wednesday — is its defense. While the Tide love to run and gun, it’s often from missed shots, not turnovers.
You can really bully the Tide on the offensive glass (256th), and their aggression and physicality often leads to constant free-throw trips (281st in FTA/FGA).
While the size does help around the rim, Alabama ranks 153rd in 2-point defense. It's 72nd overall in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, and we’ve seen it mostly struggle on the road.
Haslametrics ranks Alabama 353rd in its away-from-home metric. Included in its road bouts is a three-point win against Vanderbilt, an 18-point loss to Auburn and a 20-point loss to Tennessee.
Kentucky Wildcats
Ah yes, the curious case of Kentucky basketball.
Like Alabama, this is one of the most talented offenses in basketball. The Wildcats rank inside the top 10 in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and shoot the 3 ball at the second-best rate in the entire country.
They run and gun all while not turning the ball over — a huge plus here against a team like the Tide that also loves to push transition.
Just last week, we saw Kentucky go into "The Jungle" and win by double digits against one of the SEC’s best in Auburn. In an expected flat spot against LSU this past Wednesday, the Cats fell on a last-second shot by Tyrell Ward.
Tre Mitchell’s status remains unknown, though it seems unlikely he suits up Saturday. Both his size and veteran leadership has been instrumental in some of Kentucky’s biggest games. It’s helped hide some of the issues that have come from the rest of the Wildcats' big men, who haven't developed as expected.
Both Aaron Bradshaw and Zvonimir Ivisic have both barely played in the last handful of games. Both have had their moments in previous games and the potential is there, but they haven't been consistently reliable.
Ugonna Onyenso has taken hold of the starting center job, providing much-needed relief around the rim and on the glass.
John Calipari’s best assets are Rob Dillingham, Antonio Reeves and Reed Sheppard. They've combined for 46.6 points and all shoot 44%+ from 3. Sheppard has really stepped up with D.J. Wagner Jr. and even Justin Edwards struggling. He's the team leader in assists (4.0) and steals (2.7) per game, too.
Similarly to Alabama, this defense also leaves a bit to be had. The Cats rank 78th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency and aside from Sheppard, they don’t force many turnovers. They also allow offensive rebounds at a high rate (30.5%, 241st), too.
Though in SEC play and with Calipari shifting rotations around, UK has ranked third in 2-point defense. Onyenso is No. 1 in conference play in block rate. Per Haslametrics, UK is top-35 in both defending near-proximity chances and the mid-range.
Alabama vs Kentucky
Betting Pick & Prediction
Kentucky is one of the least consistent teams in college basketball; there's no denying that. In just the last week we've seen a dominant road win at Auburn followed by a dud against LSU.
This is the Wildcats' chance to continue that zig-zag with a home win against the SEC's elite in Alabama. The Tide, by the way, enter off a tiring overtime slugfest with Florida.
Both teams love to push the pace and this could turn into a track meet really quickly. But with lulls in this Alabama offense at times — it shoots 48% of all attempts from 3, so there's always going to be volatility — also comes a vulnerability to turnovers.
As is normal with fast-paced offenses, turnovers can come fairly constant. But Kentucky has never run into that issue, unlike the Tide, who rank 129th in TO%. ShotQuality also expects negative regression for the Tide, expecting them to finish 3% less from 3 and 4% less in the mid-range.
For what it's worth, Alabama will also be without 6-foot-10 big Mohamed Wague. He isn't a massive loss, though he's still a body up front who's suspended.
All of this paired with Alabama's aforementioned struggles on the road provides all I need to bet Kentucky inside Rupp Arena at a near-PK.
