The Alabama Crimson Tide play the Kentucky Wildcats in Lexington, KY. Tip-off is set for 12 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Kentucky is favored by 2.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -148. The total is set at 179.5 points.
Here are my Alabama vs. Kentucky predictions and college basketball picks for January 18, 2025.
Alabama vs Kentucky Prediction
Alabama vs Kentucky Pick: Kentucky -2.5 (Play to -3.5)
My Alabama vs Kentucky best bet is on the Wildcats spread, with the best odds currently available at DraftKings. For all of your college basketball bets, find the best lines using our live NCAAB odds page.
Alabama vs Kentucky Odds
| Alabama Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -110 | 179.5 -110 / -110 | +124 |
| Kentucky Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -110 | 179.5 -110 / -110 | -148 |
- Alabama vs Kentucky spread: Kentucky -2.5
- Alabama vs Kentucky over/under: 179.5 points
- Alabama vs Kentucky moneyline: Kentucky -148, Alabama +124
- Alabama vs Kentucky best bet: Kentucky -2.5 (Play to -3.5)
Spread
I like the Wildcats at home.
Moneyline
I'm passing on the moneyline.
Over/Under
I'm passing on the over/under.
My Pick: Kentucky -2.5 (Play to -3.5)
Alabama vs Kentucky College Basketball Betting Preview
Why Alabama Can Cover
Surely, Nate Oats is thankful to see a team other than Ole Miss.
The Rebels defense flummoxed a typically elite Alabama offense, turning the ball over a season-high 21 times.
Coming off a jarring home loss, Alabama might be worth backing in most cases.
However, playing in Rupp Arena presents a new set of challenges. Big Blue Nation will bring the noise and give their beloved Wildcats an extra home edge.
Alabama is still hunting for a bona fide Robin to Mark Sears's Batman.
Last year, Aaron Estrada seemed to make life easier for Sears by probing and getting into the paint. The rotation of freshman Labaron Philon and Aden Holloway is effective, but neither is a true go-to guy like Estrada.
While one of them, likely Philon, could grow into that role, it might not happen this year.
Moreover, Sears has not replicated last year's historically good production. He's shooting just 40% from the field and 35% from 3, compared to 50% and 41% last year.
Alabama, in general, is a worse shooting team this season. The Crimson Tide have shot 32% from 3 this year, which makes sense given Latrell Wrightsell's injury and Sears' down year.
In essence, Coach Oats swapped out offense for defense.
It makes sense. The Crimson Tide were a disaster defensively last year but rank 33rd nationally in Defensive Efficiency this season. Adding a rim-protecting like Cliff Omoruyi made the swap seamless, but Jarin Stevenson and Grant Nelson shooting well below 30% from 3 limits the Tide's offensive potency.
Why Kentucky Can Cover
Kentucky made a sensational hire with alum Mark Pope, whose offensive-friendly system made a seamless transition to Lexington.
The Wildcats went from an archaic offensive system under John Calipari to a modern-aged offense with Pope. He values shooting and having bigs who can handle and pass and analytics. Those beliefs make the Wildcats the second most efficient offense in America.
It took time, but Jaxson Robinson is here.
The 2023-24 Big 12 Sixth Man of the Year took time to get off the mat. Now, he's scored 22 and 27 points in the Wildcats' last two games on 12-for-23 shooting from 3.
Pairing a scalding-hot Robinson with the reliable scoring from Lamont Butler (questionable, undisclosed) and Otega Oweh creates a ton of scoring from the guards.
Don't forget about the bigs, either.
Amari Williams is a "hub" big for Kentucky, who often initiates the offense from the perimeter and is lethal in dribble handoffs. Meanwhile, Andrew Carr has converted on big-time shots this year and is the X-Factor to Kentucky having a truly unstoppable offense.
Although Kentucky appears to be an SEC title contender, can it defend well enough to win it all?
The Wildcats rank 76th nationally in Defensive Efficiency. The main issue for Kentucky's defense is defending inside the arc, as opponents shoot 51% from 2 (218th nationally).
The main culprit for the problems is pick-and-roll coverage. Teams regularly feast on the Cats' weakness. They rank in the fourth percentile of Division-I teams in pick-and-roll ball-handler PPP allowed (per Synergy).
That means Kentucky has to contain Sears because he's a strong pick-and-roll player. Don't let him get hot and ruin the night.
How To Make Kentucky vs Alabama Picks
The pace will be frenetic. Just look at the total. It sits at 179.5 points.
Runs will happen, and the lead could change hands often.
Still, I like Kentucky here.
Sears might have a tough day with Butler defending him (if he plays), and where else will scoring come from? Is it Philon? Holloway? Nelson? There are too many questions to answer in one of America's most challenging road venues.
I value these teams pretty evenly, but Kentucky is a much better offensive team because of shooting.
Factoring in the Wildcats' dominant offense with the game being at home gives us the perfect spot to back them laying under a possession.
