The Alabama Crimson Tide take on the Mississippi State Bulldogs in Starkville, MS. Tip-off is set for 9 p.m. ET on SEC Network.
Mississippi State is favored by 1.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -120. The total is set at 165 points.
Here are my Alabama vs. Mississippi State predictions and college basketball picks for January 29, 2025.
Alabama Crimson Tide vs Mississippi State Bulldogs Prediction, Picks
My Pick: Alabama Team Total Over 82.5
My Alabama vs Mississippi State best bet is on the Tide team total over, with the best odds currently available at FanDuel. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Alabama vs Mississippi State Odds, Betting Lines, Spread
| Alabama Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1 -112 | 164.5 -115o / -106u | -114 |
| Mississippi State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1 -109 | 164.5 -115o / -106u | -109 |
- Alabama vs Mississippi State spread: Alabama +1, Mississippi State -1
- Alabama vs Mississippi State over/under: 164.5
- Alabama vs Mississippi State moneyline: Alabama ML -114, Mississippi State ML -109
Alabama vs Mississippi State College Basketball Preview
The Mississippi State Bulldogs have lost three of their last five games and could desperately use a Quad 1 win on Wednesday to bolster their NCAA Tournament resume.
Meanwhile, the Alabama Crimson Tide have won three straight as they prepare for their gauntlet end-of-year schedule.
It appears to be a good spot to back the Bulldogs at home, but I have legitimate concerns about Chris Jans' team in this one.
First off, the Bulldogs are shooting 32% from deep, which ranks outside the top 225 in the nation. The Bulldogs need to keep up with the Tide offense, and a poor 3-point shooting night isn't going to cut it.
They also don't generate many trips to the foul line and are only shooting 69% from the charity stripe.
The Bulldogs rank in the top 35 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, but they'll need to continue to thrive on the offensive glass and inside the arc with their scoring.
They don't turn the ball over on offense, which should give them plenty of clean possessions to make some high-percentage shots. However, I don't trust the offense to keep up, and there are some areas on defense that could also be a big problem.
The best betting angle in the matchup, given the situational spot, is Alabama to go over its team total, and there are multiple reasons why I love this play.
First, the Tide have the quickest offense in the country and rank inside the top 30 in Rim-and-3 Rate.
Second, Nate Oats' team has arguably the most efficient offense in the nation, yet it's only shooting 32% from 3. Given that it's taking a ton of 3s per game, I expect that number to gradually increase moving forward.
What's also a plus is that the Bulldogs' perimeter defense has been highly suspect all season, so I feel like the Tide will be able to make it rain from deep consistently.
Even if the triples aren't falling, the Tide are second in the country in 2-point percentage, primarily because of their ability to generate high-percentage looks inside the paint.
The Tide also get to the foul line a ton, and the Bulldogs aren't the most disciplined group defensively.
Alabama also ranks inside the top 20 in offensive rebounding rate, which means even more possessions for it to put up extra points. The Bulldogs also don't rebound well on the defensive side, so it appears to be a dream matchup for the Tide's offense.
Given the pace of the matchup, I expect the Alabama offense to have a lot of possessions, which should give it ample chances to hang a large number on the scoreboard.
