The Alabama Crimson Tide take on the North Carolina Tar Heels in Chapel Hill, NC. Tip-off is set for 7:15 p.m. ET on ESPN.
North Carolina is favored by 1.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -135. The total is set at 174.5 points.
Here’s my Alabama vs. UNC predictions and college basketball picks for December 4, 2024.
Alabama vs UNC Odds
| Alabama Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -108 | 174.5 -110 / -110 | +105 |
| UNC Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -112 | 174.5 -110 / -110 | -135 |
- Alabama vs UNC spread: UNC -1.5
- Alabama vs UNC over/under: 174.5 points
- Alabama vs UNC moneyline: UNC -125, Alabama +105
- Alabama vs UNC best bet: Over 175.5 (Play to 176.5)
My Alabama vs UNC College Basketball Betting Preview
In the Sweet 16 of the 2024 NCAA Tournament, Alabama knocked off North Carolina 89-87 in one of the most thrilling games of the event.
Two returnees, Grant Nelson (24 points) and Mark Sears (18 points), were among the Crimson Tide's leading scorers in that win. The duo is leading the way this season, as well, with Sears averaging 16 points, 3.3 rebounds and 3.6 assists and Nelson averaging 13 points and 7.8 rebounds per game.
Sears and Nelson lead a Crimson Tide attack that ranks second in adjusted offensive efficiency. While still early, it appears that the Crimson Tide will have a top-20 offense for the fourth consecutive season under head coach Nate Oats.
It will have to make up for the loss of guard Latrell Wrightsell Jr., though, who will miss the rest of the season with a ruptured Achilles tendon. Freshman Labaron Philon and sophomore Aden Holloway figure to see more playing time in his absence.
However, Wednesday, Nelson may be in for another big game against the Tar Heels. With the departures of Armando Bacot and Harrison Ingram, UNC has committed to playing five out and spreading the floor.
However, that has also left it vulnerable on the interior.
North Carolina has already allowed 50 points in the paint twice against Kansas and Michigan State after allowing 50 just twice in the last two seasons combined.
While it only surrendered 32 points on the interior against Auburn, Johni Broome dominated the game with 23 points and 19 rebounds. In addition, Kansas' Hunter Dickinson had 20 points and 10 rebounds against the Heels.
North Carolina dropped all three of those games, and its schedule will not get easier with Alabama next on the docket.
Alabama will not be the only potent offense on the floor, as North Carolina ranks fifth in adjusted offensive efficiency. It is averaging 89.7 points per game and has scored at least 87 points in six of seven games this season.
Junior Seth Trimble (16.1 points and four rebounds per game) and sophomore Elliot Cadeau (14.4 points and 5.9 assists) have taken massive leaps, as each is shooting 50% from the field in the early going.
However, the leading scorer remains fifth-year senior RJ Davis, who is averaging 18.4 points in addition to 4.1 rebounds and 4.4 assists.
Although Davis has not been as efficient as we usually expect, he's shooting 36.7% from the field and 27.5% from 3. He will also be looking for redemption against the Crimson Tide after shooting just 4-for-20 from the field in the last meeting.
Two newcomers to this year's matchup are five-star freshmen Ian Jackson and Drake Powell. Jackson has been the first guard off the bench and is known for his scoring prowess, as he is currently averaging nine points.
Powell could earn more minutes moving forward after he had season-highs in both minutes (33) and points (18) against Michigan State. His effort, athleticism and activity could help UNC replace what Ingram brought to the team last season.
That starts on the glass where UNC ranks 281st in offensive rebounding percentage and 115th in defensive rebounding percentage. North Carolina has been out-rebounded in three of its past four games.
For a program that traditionally played two bigs and prided itself on controlling the glass, that will not sit well with Hubert Davis and Co.
Alabama vs UNC Betting Analysis
At 176.5, we have a very high total, although it should not be a surprise with two top-five offenses that also both rank in the top seven in adjusted tempo.
This will be the third straight season that Alabama and UNC will be playing each other and the first two meetings have gone over, averaging 190 points.
The over is 6-1 in UNC games this season and three of those games have had 177 points or more. Alabama games have featured high totals all season.
However, the over is 3-1-1 in Alabama's last five games. That includes 187 points against Illinois and 185 against Rutgers.
In a game where the pace will be fast and furious, do not be surprised if the total soars over 180 in Chapel Hill as well.
