The Alabama State Hornets take on the Auburn Tigers in the NCAA Tournament. Tip-off is set for 2:50 p.m. ET on CBS.
Auburn is favored by 32.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -8000. The total is set at 149.5 points.
Here are my Alabama State vs. Auburn predictions and college basketball picks for March 20, 2025.
Alabama State vs Auburn Prediction
My Pick: Auburn Team Total Over 90.5
My Alabama State vs Auburn best bet is on the Tigers to go over their team total, with the best odds currently available at FanDuel. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Alabama State vs Auburn Odds, Lines, Pick
| Alabama State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+31.5 -102 | 149.5 -110o / -110u | +7000 |
| Auburn Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-31.5 -120 | 149.5 -110o / -110u | -100000 |
- Alabama State vs Auburn spread: Auburn -31.5, Alabama State +31.5
- Alabama State vs Auburn over/under: 149.5
- Alabama State vs Auburn moneyline: Auburn -100000, Alabama State +7000
My Alabama State vs Auburn NCAA Tournament Preview
At the end of February, Alabama State sat at 13-15 and needed a big push to play in the NCAA Tournament. That's exactly what happened. The Hornets won six straight, including the SWAC Tournament Championship, to earn an automatic bid.
On Tuesday, they extended their winning streak to seven with a 70-68 victory over Saint Francis (PA), the first NCAA Tournament victory in school history.
Amarr Knox caught a Hail Mary-style pass and laid the ball with a second to go for two of his 16 points. The redshirt sophomore leads the team 14.3 points per game, and fellow guards CJ Hines and TJ Madlock aren't far behind him.
Madlock is also one of the nation's top rebounding guards at 7.2 per game. He has pulled down eight or more in six of his last eight games.
Knox, Madlock, Hines and Micah Simpson are all 6-foot-3 or shorter, and they'll be at a significant size disadvantage against Auburn, which will show up in several areas.
The Hornets rank 340th in 2-point field goal percentage. They also don't shoot the ball from 3 very well at just 32.8%, which puts it 224th in Division I. Even in the victory on Tuesday night, the Hornets shot just 42% from the field.
Controlling the glass also will be difficult in this game, with ASU ranking 229th in offensive rebounding percentage and 225th in defensive rebounding percentage. Overall, it's 273rd in adjusted offensive efficiency and 254th in adjusted defensive efficiency.
No team put together a more impressive resume this season than Auburn, which leads the country with 16 Quad 1 victories. That includes wins over Houston, Memphis, Iowa State, Alabama, Tennessee and Kentucky, among others.
Auburn's resume helped it nab the top overall seed despite losing three of its last four games. It will look to get back on track against the in-state Hornets.
Leading the way will be forward Johni Broome. Since transferring in from Morehead State, Broome has been a walking double-double. This season, he has averaged 18.9 points, 10.6 rebounds, 3.1 assists and 2.3 blocks per game.
The standout season thus far has earned him SEC Player of the Year and first-team All-American honors. Broome has recorded a double-double in two of the three career NCAA Tournament games he has played in.
Broome leads six Tigers who are averaging at least nine points per game.
Freshman Tahaad Pettiford and Georgia Tech transfer Miles Kelly will be playing in their first NCAA Tournament. They're among the guards who help Auburn space the floor for Broome, along with Chad Baker-Mazara and Denver Jones.
Each member of the quartet is shooting at least 37% from 3, nearly matching Auburn's percentage as a team.
The Tigers' ability to score inside and from the perimeter — as well as protect the ball (they rank sixth in turnover percentage offensively) — has led to the nation's second-most efficient offense.
However, Auburn sits also 12th in adjusted defensive efficiency, ranking in the top 11 in effective field-goal percentage allowed, 3-point percentage allowed and block rate.
Broome and center Dylan Cardwell combine for nearly four blocks per game.
Auburn doesn't play at the fastest pace in the country, but it will selectively run when it has the opportunity.
It has also feasted on inferior opponents this season. In seven games against non-high major competition, Auburn has averaged 92.8 points per game and has topped 100 twice.
UNLV, SMU, Missouri, Iowa, Memphis and Auburn have all topped at least 80 points against Alabama State in the last two years, with three of them going over 90 points.
With massive advantages in talent, size and depth, I expect Auburn to roll in this one en route to at least 91 points.
Pick: Auburn Team Total Over 90.5
