The Alabama State Hornets take on the Norfolk State Spartans in Uncasville, CT. Tip-off is set for 5 p.m. ET on ESPNU.
Norfolk State is favored by 5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -225. The total is set at 150 points.
Here are my Alabama State vs. Norfolk State predictions and college basketball picks for December 19, 2024.
Alabama State vs Norfolk State Prediction
My Pick: Norfolk State -5 or Better
My Alabama State vs Norfolk State best bet is on the Spartans spread, with the best odds currently available at FanDuel. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Alabama State vs Norfolk State Odds
| Alabama State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5 -110 | 150 -110 / -110 | +185 |
| Norfolk State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5 -110 | 150 -110 / -110 | -225 |
- Alabama State vs Norfolk State spread: Norfolk State -5
- Alabama State vs Norfolk State over/under: 150 points
- Alabama State vs Norfolk State moneyline: Norfolk State -225, Alabama State +185
- Alabama State vs Norfolk State best bet: Norfolk State -5 or Better
Spread
I'm laying the points with Norfolk State in this neutral-court battle.
Moneyline
I'm passing on the moneyline.
Over/Under
I'm passing on the total.
My Pick: Norfolk State -5 or Better
Alabama State vs Norfolk State College Basketball Betting Preview
The situational spot screams Norfolk, as the Spartans are looking to bounce back off three consecutive losses to three teams I have rated higher than Alabama State — including two successive road games against Baylor (brutal) and Northern Kentucky.
Meanwhile, Alabama State is primed for a letdown after grinding past UT Martin in overtime last Wednesday.
I'm worried that the Hornets will have a considerable rest advantage, but the Spartans are a surprising 28-20 ATS on a rest disadvantage since head coach Robert Jones took over in 2014. His downhill-driving attack offense and trappy zone defense is a relatively simple two-way scheme that can neutralize any scheming or game-planning.
The Hornets barely squeaked past UT Martin (No. 334 in KenPom) because their best player got hurt. Point guard TJ Madlock is a SWAC Player of the Year candidate but has missed the last two and a half games. I’m uncertain if he will be available for this one, and it’s hard to imagine Alabama State competing without him.
Norfolk State is a good squad — likely the best in the MEAC.
On offense, the Spartans primarily run ball screens in the half-court, but they are most dangerous when pressuring the rim (19 at-the-rim field goal attempts per game, 58th percentile; 68% shooting at the rim, 82nd percentile) and running in transition (17 PPG, 83rd percentile; 1.13 PPP, 70th percentile).
Christian Ings and Brian Moore Jr. are two quick-twitched downhill-driving burst scorers out of the backcourt who can dominate in the open court, and they should give Alabama State fits.
The Hornets are a below-average ball-screen coverage defense (1.03 PPP allowed, 40th percentile) that gets roasted in transition (18 PPG allowed, seventh percentile; 1.03 PPP allowed, 40th percentile) and at the rim (29 at-the-rim PPG allowed, 281st nationally).
The Hornets like to leverage their trio of guards to pressure the ball, but they have been a below-average press defense (1.03 PPP allowed, 18th percentile) that will battle an elite Norfolk press offense (1.16 PPP, 94th percentile).
The Hornets' aggressive defense also gets them in foul trouble, as they rank 329th nationally in free throw rate allowed (42%). Meanwhile, the downhill-driving Spartan guards live at the line, ranking 74th nationally in free throw rate (38%).
And, again, Alabama State will likely be without a key perimeter defender in Madlock.
On the other end of the court, Alabama State loves to play drive-and-kick basketball, ping-ponging the rock around the backcourt. The Hornets should have no issues generating those opportunities against Norfolk’s compact zone defense, which ranks 360th nationally in the 3-point rate allowed (54%).
However, I suspect the Hornets are due for some shooting regression after canning 17-of-36 (47%) triples in their last outing.
While they are shooting 35% from deep on the year, ShotQuality projects they should shoot closer to 31% the rest of the way based on the “quality” of attempts, likely because they rank 315th nationally in their Shot Selection metric and 349th in their Shot Making metric.
And they are likely still without a key perimeter drive-and-kick facilitator and shooter in Madlock — he’s shooting 39% from 3 while dishing out five assists per game this year.
I also don’t think this is the worst matchup for Norfolk’s defense.
Every zone defense allows catch-and-shoot opportunities, but Coach Jones’ extended-pressure trap-heavy scheme will harass and test Alabama State’s backcourt — which is, again, without a key ball-handler in Madlock.
The Spartans are elite at denying off-ball screening actions and have a bevy of excellent individual defenders who hold their own in isolation, two sets that are critical in Tony Madlock’s offensive attack.
And like the Spartans, the Hornets love to get out in transition. The difference is that Norfolk State is a half-decent transition denial defense (.91 PPP allowed, 79th percentile).
And (again), the Hornets will likely be without a key transition creator in Madlock, who leverages his elite athleticism in the open court.
I love the matchup and situational spot for Norfolk State, especially if Madlock remains sidelined. I’m banking on the fired-up Spartans picking up a convincing neutral-court win.
