The Albany Great Danes play the Dartmouth Big Green in Hanover, New Hampshire. Tip-off is set for 6 p.m. ET on ESPN+.
In this matchup, the Great Danes are favored by 1 point on the spread with a moneyline of -114. The total is also set at 151.
Here are my Albany vs. Dartmouth predictions and college basketball picks for November 13, 2024.
Albany vs Dartmouth Prediction
My Pick: Dartmouth +1
My Albany vs Dartmouth best bet is on the Big Green spread, with the best odds currently available at BetRivers. For all of your college basketball bets, find the best lines using our live NCAAB odds page.
Albany vs Dartmouth Odds, Lines, Pick
| Albany Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -110 | 150.5 -110o / -110u | +170 |
| Dartmouth Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -110 | 150.5 -110o / -110u | -250 |
- Albany vs. Dartmouth spread: Dartmouth -4.5
- Albany vs. Dartmouth over/under: 150.5 points
- Albany vs. Dartmouth moneyline: Dartmouth -250, Albany +170
- Albany vs. Dartmouth best bet: Dartmouth +1
My Albany vs. Dartmouth NCAAB Betting Preview
I’m exceedingly high on the Great Danes this season. Their length, versatility and high-upside talent could lead to a surprise run in the America East this year.
But Coach Dwayne Killings is working with an entirely new team. He returns only 28% of last year’s minutes and lost superstar guards Sebastian Thomas and Tyler Bertram. He recruited nine newcomers with high ceilings.
It could take a while for Killings to fit the puzzle pieces together, as evidenced by the Danes’ gross eight-point loss to Army in the season opener. And the floor could fall out if he can’t put the pieces together — Albany could beat anyone or lose to anyone on any given night.
Of greater importance to this matchup, Albany’s two most important returning pieces — guards Amar’e Marshall and Aaron Reddish — won’t be available for this game due to injury.
Marshall is the team’s best player, a quick-twitched three-level scoring bucket who can drop 20 points per game. Reddish is a solid, versatile swingman.
So, the Danes will be playing their third game of the year on the road with essentially zero returning players and without its best scorer.
That should pose issues against an experienced Dartmouth squad that returned over 70% of last year’s minutes and features seven upperclassmen in the rotation. Experience and roster continuity always play in the early season — teams with more cohesion, chemistry and experience will beat teams with less in November and December.
Equally important to this handicap is that Marshall and Reddish are Albany’s two best shooters. Marshall shot 37% from deep last year, while Reddish is a career 31% 3-point guy.
Aside from them, Albany is short on floor spacers. Alcorn State transfer Byron Joshua looks like an exciting, quick-twitch, downhill-driving guard with excellent passing vision, but he’s a career 25% 3-point shooter.
Boston College/UCF transfer DeMarr Langford Jr. is an electric, uber-athletic, mismatch-causing, downhill-driving wing, but he’s a career 25% 3-point shooter.
Saint Joe’s transfer Kacper Klaczek is a smooth forward who can handle the rock and score in ball screens, but he’s a career 25% 3-point shooter.
Iona big man transfer Sultan Adewale can score on the block but attempted one 3-point shot across 33 games last year.
That’s an issue against Dartmouth’s compact, shell-like man-to-man defense. The Big Green lack size, athleticism and rim protection on the interior, so they compensate by packing it in and denying the paint and rim.
Typically, Albany’s pace-and-space, rim-and-3-reliant offense wouldn’t have a problem with that because Dartmouth is forced to allow downtown volume (it ranked 327th in 3-point rate allowed last year), which the Danes would be happy to take.
However, as mentioned, Albany doesn’t have the necessary shooting to exploit that vulnerability. Plus, Dartmouth has a typically above-average transition defense, which will neutralize Albany's transition-reliant attack.
The Danes will likely attempt to sprint into crowded lanes for 40 minutes, and they will likely struggle.
Sacred Heart runs a similar pace-and-space scheme to Albany. Both run the open court and space the floor to open up driving lanes for athletic guards and wings. The Pioneers have three excellent guard/wing tweeners who can score by slashing in transition: Tanner Thomas, Bryce Johnson and Aidan Carpenter.
In their game against Dartmouth this past Saturday, the Pioneers shot 15-for-37 (41%) from inside the arc, 4-for-13 in the paint (31%) and 9-for-16 at the rim (56%). Thomas, Johnson and Carpenter shot a combined 5-for-17 (29%) from 2-point range.
They also managed only 16 points on 20 transition possessions, a paltry .8 PPP.
Sacred Heart actually exploited Dartmouth’s hapless perimeter defense by canning 12-of-26 3s (46%), and the Pios still lost by five.
I expect Albany to perform even worse. The Danes could really struggle to score on Wednesday.
On the other end of the court, I’m worried that Albany’s drop-coverage defense will effectively deny Dartmouth’s perimeter-oriented offense. Dropping your interior defender in ball-screen coverage allows your perimeter and wing defenders to deny secondary actions and 3-point shots.
However, the Big Green are due for some positive shooting regression after their 8-for-29 (28%) 3-point shooting performance against Sacred Heart. They generated 15 unguarded catch-and-shoot jumpers and made only four (27%), an unsustainable mark for a half-decent shooting roster.
Plus, Jackson Munro is evolving into a relatively crafty mid-post scorer, which is crucial against drop-coverage defenses that funnel on-ball creation into the middle of the floor.
He poured in 19 against Sacred Heart on 7-for-9 (78%) shooting from inside the arc, and he could do the same against Albany's hapless interior defense.
I like the more experienced Big Green to pull out a home win against a short-handed Danes squad. While KenPom projects Albany as a one-point road favorite, EvanMiya, Bart Torvik and Haslametrics all project Dartmouth closer to a three-point home favorite.
I’m also unsure if the projection market is accounting for those critical injuries.
Pick: Dartmouth +1
