Arizona State vs. Oregon Odds
| Arizona State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -114 | 137.5 -110o / -110u | +168 |
| Oregon Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -106 | 137.5 -110o / -110u | -205 |
On Thursday night, Oregon will look to even its conference record as it faces Arizona State in Eugene. Both teams will be riding high after their respective wins on Saturday and Sunday.
For Oregon, this will be its 11th game against a team ranked inside the top 100 this season. This schedule — which ranks top-10 in difficulty (according to KenPom) — has included games against three of the top four teams in the country.
The Sun Devils have had an easier road, but have still recorded marquee wins over Michigan, Colorado and Creighton.
Let's take a look at the odds between these two Pac-12 teams and make a prediction for who will come out on top Thursday night.
Arizona State Sun Devils
Bobby Hurley's Sun Devils have been carried by their performance on the defensive end so far this season. Arizona State ranks 25th nationally in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency (92.7) due to its ability to protect the interior.
The Sun Devils are only allowing their opponents to score 46.8% of their points from 2-point range, which is 299th nationally. Hurley will emphasis this interior defense against an Oregon, which is the second-tallest team in the country.
The Ducks use this height to score 52.9% of their total points on the interior. If Arizona State is able to limit this staple of the Oregon offense, it will give its own offense the ability to keep pace.
Offensively, the Sun Devils are balanced but not explosive. Arizona State has four players averaging 10 points or more this season, but only average 72.2 points per game as a whole.
The Sun Devils have struggled specifically with their outside shooting, connecting on only 30.6% of their attempts, resulting in just 29.9% of their total points.
Arizona State will have an opportunity to see some shooting progression, as Oregon is giving up just under 40% of its total field goal attempts from distance.
The Sun Devils will have the defensive matchups to keep pace with the Ducks, but it's yet to be seen if they have the offensive firepower to steal a win on the road.
Oregon Ducks
Oregon has played a grueling schedule, and as a result, it has suffered seven losses through 13 games.
Luckily for head coach Dana Altman, none of these losses have come to teams outside the top 100.
Despite this tough road, the Ducks have been able to have enough success to be ranking inside the top 65 in both offensive and defensive efficiency.
On offense, the Ducks are led by senior point guard Will Richardson. Oregon's floor general leads the team in points (14.6) and has amassed a steal rate of 2.7%.
Tale of the 📼, 2022 NBA Draft Edition: Will Richardson
💡Oregon vs. Arizona, 2.19.22
💡Full video + stats: https://t.co/0JHKsCnu29pic.twitter.com/f8DIsHhlQf
— Pro Insight (@_proinsight) March 10, 2022
Richardson's defensive play will be important as he'll be matched up with Frankie Collins, who leads Arizona State in assists and is third in points.
Disrupting Collins will put a great deal of stress on an Arizona State offense that wants to push the tempo. The Sun Devils rank 67th nationally in average possession rank on offense (16.5 seconds).
Just as the Ducks will look to Richardson in the backcourt, they will look to senior center N'Faly Dante to limit the Sun Devils' success on the interior, an area they have thrived.
Dante's ability to protect the rim — with a 5.5% block percentage — has resulted in Oregon ranking fourth nationally in 2-point percentage defense, allowing its opponents to convert just 41.5% of their shots from close range.
Look for Oregon to make life difficult for Arizona State on its home floor.
Arizona State vs. Oregon Betting Pick
This is a matchup that will be highlighted by the defensive play of both teams.
The Sun Devils, who want to penetrate to avoid relying on their outside shooting, will be met by one of the best rim protectors in the country.
Similarly, Arizona State has been effective at preventing its opponents from finding success on the interior.
On its home floor, I believe that Oregon will be able to outlast the Sun Devils in a closely contested, low-scoring affair. This can be reflected in Oregon being bet up from the open of -3.5 to -5.5.
Given this steam and the defensive advantages, I believe the largest value lies on the total between these two Pac-12 opponents.
Pick: Under 136.5 (Play to 135) |
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