The Arizona Wildcats take on the Duke Blue Devils in the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament. Tip-off is set for 9:39 p.m. ET on CBS.
Duke is favored by 9.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -550. The total is set at 154 points.
Here’s my Arizona vs. Duke predictions and college basketball picks for March 27, 2025.
Arizona vs Duke Prediction
My Pick: Duke -9.5 (Play to -10)
My Arizona vs Duke best bet is on the Blue Devils spread, with the best odds currently available at DraftKings. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Arizona vs Duke Odds, Lines
| Arizona Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9.5 -110 | 154 -110o / -110u | +400 |
| Duke Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9.5 -110 | 154 -110o / -110u | -550 |
- Arizona vs Duke spread: Duke -9.5
- Arizona vs Duke over/under: 154 points
- Arizona vs Duke moneyline: Duke -550, Arizona +400
- Arizona vs Duke best bet: Duke -9.5 (Play to -10)
My Arizona vs Duke Sweet 16 Betting Preview
Duke cruised to a pair of victories in the NCAA Tournament, covering against Baylor and Mount St. Mary's.
Meanwhile, Arizona hammered a strong Akron team before coming back from an early deficit to beat Oregon in the Round of 32.
Duke and Arizona already met during the regular season. The Blue Devils went to the McKale Center and held Arizona to just 55 points in a 14-point win.
The first meeting between these two clubs was four months ago, so plenty has changed.
One thing that has remained the same, though, is Duke's dominance. The Blue Devils have lost just three times all season and once since the calendar flipped to 2025.
I foresee Arizona struggling to score here. How do you score against Duke? There just isn't a good way. The Blue Devils' interior defense is monstrous, limiting teams to 43% shooting from 2.
Considering Arizona is a team without consistent shooting, that seems like a nightmare waiting to happen. If you can't drive on Duke, you have to hit 3s and hope for the best.
The Wildcats are shooting on 34% from deep since February 1. Despite that lofty solid number, the Wildcats' roster features multiple non-shooters. Point guard Jaden Bradley hits just 31% from deep, super sixth man KJ Lewis is shooting sub-20% and Caleb Love is hitting just 33.6%.
The only player who drills over 34% from beyond the arc is Anthony Dell'Orso, who barely played in the first Duke meeting because of his defensive hardships.
Arizona is shockingly more of an offensive team than earlier this year. The Wildcats are eighth in offensive efficiency since February 1 and 33rd in defensive efficiency. The sudden defensive struggles could be a real problem in this matchup.
I'd venture to say big man Henri Veesaar plays a pivotal role. He only played 12 minutes in the first meeting versus Duke, as Motiejus Krivas was healthy. Veesaar adds a little more shooting, but Krivas is a better defender in the post.
Duke is the only team in America that ranks in the top five in offensive and defensive efficiency. The Blue Devils rank first in offensive efficiency, posting a 57.9% effective field goal percentage, a 38.7% 3-point percentage and a 14% turnover rate.
That's a killer combination.
If Duke is hitting shots from deep like it did in the first two rounds of the Big Dance, nobody is keeping the game close.
Cooper Flagg sets the tone for Duke. He's the National Player of the Year front-runner for a reason, posting 18.7 points, 7.5 rebounds and 4.2 assists per game while shooting 36% from 3.
The future No. 1 overall NBA draft pick creates a real issue for defenses with his elite driving ability that forces teams to bring a help defender and leave a shooter, or let Flagg play one-on-one.
Duke has several marksmen, beginning with Tyrese Proctor. He's drilled 11 3s in the first two NCAA Tournament games and is shooting over 40% from deep this season. Proctor, Sion James and Kon Knueppel are elite perimeter shooters.
Is a double-digit spread in the second week of the NCAA Tournament lofty? Sure, but I truly believe Duke is the best team in America.
The Blue Devils will shoot the ball well from deep, and Arizona will have trouble scoring.
I'll gladly take the Blue Devils up to -10.
