The Arkansas Razorbacks take on the Auburn Tigers in Auburn, Alabama. Tip-off is set for 9 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Auburn is favored by 16.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -2400. The total is set at 153.5 points.
Here are my Arkansas vs. Auburn predictions and college basketball picks for February 19, 2025.
Arkansas vs Auburn Prediction
Pick: Auburn -16.5 (Play to -17.5)
My Arkansas vs. Auburn best bet is on the Tigers spread, with the best odds currently available at DraftKings. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Arkansas vs Auburn Odds, Lines
| Arkansas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+15.5 -105 | 150.5 -115o / -105u | +1000 |
| Auburn Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-15.5 -115 | 150.5 -115o / -105u | -2000 |
- Arkansas vs. Auburn spread: Auburn -15.5
- Arkansas vs. Auburn over/under: 150.5 points
- Arkansas vs. Auburn moneyline: Auburn -2000, Arkansas +1000
- Arkansas vs. Auburn pick: Auburn -16.5 (Play to -17.5)
My Arkansas vs. Auburn College Basketball Betting Preview
I searched for every angle to back Arkansas, as Auburn is fresh off that emotional win over Alabama. I just can't find it, though.
Auburn is a totally different beast than most teams in America. The Tigers lost to Florida at home and barely beat Tennessee. Besides that, Auburn won every game in the SEC from Missouri to Oklahoma by 16+ points.
The Tigers boast America's best offense, ranking first in KenPom's efficiency metric.
There isn't a single thing Auburn's offense is bad at — it has a 56% effective field goal percentage (17th nationally), turns the ball over just 13% of the time (fifth nationally) and ranks top-40 in 2-point and 3-point percentages.
What I love most about Auburn, though, is it has the best interior in college basketball.
That isn't a real stunner with Johni Broome occupying the paint, but Chaney Johnson and Dylan Cardwell are underrated. Johnson has scored 13+ points in four straight games, while Cardwell might be the top post defender in the SEC.
The Tigers' bigs should be able to attack Arkansas in various ways. Broome's vastly improved shooting could lead to some pick-and-pop chances, which is an area that's stung Arkansas all year.
Auburn's backcourt is pretty stacked, too. Chad Baker-Mazara, Tahaad Pettiford, Denver Jones and Miles Kelly are all elite shooting threats.
Meanwhile, Arkansas would have a strong NCAA Tournament case if the season ended today. Bracket Matrix has the Razorbacks as the last 10 seed in the tourney, avoiding the First Four. A win in Neville Arena would cement their way into the Big Dance.
I just don't know if Arkansas can score enough in this matchup to keep it close. The best path to scoring for Arkansas often comes from its defense leading to offensive runouts.
John Calipari's squad excels at forcing turnovers, boasting an 18% turnover rate, and it can push the pace (122nd in adjusted tempo).
The disparity in half-court scoring between the two teams is pretty vast — Auburn records 1.10 PPP (per Synergy) in the half-court, while Arkansas sits at just 0.97 PPP. A lot of the Arkansas struggles stem from shooting woes, as it hits 33% from downtown.
It's probably not a good thing that Arkansas' best shooter is 7-foot-2 big man Zvonimir Ivisic. He's shooting a stout 45% from deep, and nobody else has shot above 33%.
Auburn is one of the best rim defenses in America, holding teams to a shocking 0.92 PPP on layups. Just look at the way Arkansas beat Kentucky: attacking the rim and scoring on the weak rim defense.
That plan of attack will lead to a blowout versus Auburn.
Sure, the number is a bit high, but Auburn is the best team in America for a reason. Elite teams can blow out inferior squads, and the Tigers have done that, covering home games at a 60% clip.
