The Arkansas Razorbacks take on the Kentucky Wildcats in Lexington, Kentucky. Tip-off is set for 9 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Kentucky is favored by -11.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -600. The total is set at 157.5 points.
Here are my Arkansas vs. Kentucky predictions and college basketball picks for February 1, 2025.
Arkansas vs Kentucky Prediction
My Pick: Arkansas +11.5 (Play to +11)
My Arkansas vs Kentucky best bet is on the Razorbacks to cover, with the best odds currently available at bet365. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Arkansas vs Kentucky Odds
| Arkansas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+11.5 -110 | 157.5 -110o / -110u | +450 |
| Kentucky Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-11.5 -110 | 157.5 -110o / -110u | -600 |
- Arkansas vs Kentucky spread: Kentucky -11.5
- Arkansas vs Kentucky over/under: -157.5 points
- Arkansas vs Kentucky moneyline: Kentucky -600, Arkansas +450
- Arkansas vs Kentucky best bet: Arkansas +11.5 (Play to +11)
Spread
I like Arkansas to cover in John Calipari's return to Lexington.
Moneyline
While I like Arkansas to cover the spread, I'm staying away from betting the moneyline.
Over/Under
I'm passing on the total for this game.
My Pick: Arkansas +11.5 (Play to +11)
Arkansas vs Kentucky College Basketball Betting Preview
Welcome back to Rupp Arena, John Calipari! The new Arkansas head returns to his old stomping grounds on Saturday night.
Kentucky will likely be short-handed again. Lamont Butler hadn't practiced as of Friday, while forward Andrew Carr played just two minutes in UK's narrow win over Tennessee.
I'm still not entirely sold on the Wildcats. Yes, the offense is awesome. The eye test and numbers concur, as Kentucky ranks fourth in offensive efficiency.
The Cats offense is very cohesive, and they run an outside-in attack with center Amari Williams often being the offensive initiator. If Butler is out, Williams will almost exclusively run the offense.
Plus, Kentucky attempts 3s at a very high rate (43%) and connects on 37% of those shots.
Williams will have a number of shooters to dish to — Jaxson Robinson, Ansley Almonor and Koby Brea surround the big. Those three are vital to UK's offense, as Robinson shoots 36% from 3, while Almonor and Brea shoot over 43% from deep.
I'm fading Kentucky in this spot because of the other end of the floor.
The Wildcats continue to leak gas defensively, falling to 70th in defensive efficiency. They're due for more shooting regression.
Just look at Tennessee, which missed countless open shots. That makes Kentucky's defense look good, even though it was more about the Vols missing shots.
I'll be curious to see which side is more important. Arkansas ranks in the 79th percentile in defense versus spot-up shots, compared to Kentucky's 97th percentile in spot-up jumpers.
Can the Razorbacks' success in limiting shooters play a role here, or is Kentucky too much? I'm banking on the defense.
Defense is the DNA of Arkansas's roster, boasting the 35th-most efficient defense in the country. The mixture of effort and how big Arkansas plays a large role in its defensive capabilities.
Arkansas forces turnovers at an 18% clip while holding teams to 31% from deep and 41% from 2. That's really strong across the board, but the key is limiting the shooting. Kentucky doesn't turn the ball over and can fall in love with the deep jumpers.
Will Arkansas ever figure out its shooting woes? It will never be a great shooting team, but I could see it making a small improvement.
I still trust Johnell Davis — for better or worse. The dude was an All-American candidate last year, and now he averages 8.9 points per game.
With Boogie Fland out, Arkansas needs Davis to be the guy he was supposed to be. If Davis and Karter Knox start shooting better, it'll provide a trio of shooters with Zvonimir Ivisic, who shoots 40% from deep.
Plus, Adou Thiero and D.J. Wagner both provide terrific driving ability. That pair is integral to Arkansas's 54% shooting attack from 2-point range.
Thiero is the Razorbacks' leading scorer with 16.5 PPG. He puts plenty of pressure on the rim using his 6-foot-8 frame and dazzling athleticism. I'm unsure if anyone on Kentucky's roster can contain Thiero.
The number feels a bit lofty for what should be an emotional game. Coach Cal spent over a decade in Lexington, and two of his better players — Thiero and Ivisic — came with him.
Plus, Arkansas needs a few big wins to get back in the NCAA Tournament picture.
While I don't think Arkansas can beat Kentucky, I'm looking for spots to fade the Wildcats because I have very little faith in teams that can't defend. There's a lot of variance with 3-point heavy teams that struggle defensively.
