The Arkansas Razorbacks take on the Tennessee Volunteers in Knoxville, TN. Tip-off is set for 1 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Tennessee is favored by 12 points on the spread with a moneyline of -850. The total is set at 144 points.
Here are my Arkansas vs. Tennessee predictions and college basketball picks for January 4, 2025.
Arkansas vs Tennessee Prediction
My Pick: Arkansas +11.5 (Play to +10)
My Arkansas vs Tennessee best bet is on the Razorbacks spread, with the best odds currently available at BetMGM. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Arkansas vs Tennessee Odds, Spread
| Arkansas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+12 -110 | 144 -110 / -110 | +575 |
| Tennessee Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-12 -110 | 144 -110 / -110 | -850 |
- Arkansas vs Tennessee spread: Tennessee -12
- Arkansas vs Tennessee over/under: 144 points
- Arkansas vs Tennessee moneyline: Tennessee -850, Arkansas +575
- Arkansas vs Tennessee best bet: Arkansas +11.5 (Play to +10)
My Arkansas vs Tennessee College Basketball Betting Preview
The first month of John Calipari’s tenure in Fayetteville was pretty rocky. The Razorbacks lost their only two meetings versus good teams, falling in convincing fashion to Baylor and Illinois.
That made it tough to figure out if Arkansas was just an offseason champion or if the Razorbacks had a chance to make noise in the SEC.
For Arkansas to cover the 11.5-point spread in this game, it’s paramount for it to shoot it well from downtown. Tennessee has success limiting teams from 3, but Arkansas has found its stride from deep recently.
Leading scorer Adou Thiero shoots only 26% from distance, but star freshman Boogie Fland — his backcourt mate — DJ Wagner, Johnell Davis and Zvonimir Ivisic all hit 38% or better from downtown.
I’m slowly buying stock in Arkansas’ shooting, and I believe in Fland leading the charge to improve the Razorbacks’ No. 52-ranked offense, per KenPom.
While Fland doesn’t get the love Cooper Flagg or Dylan Harper gets, he’s been awesome in his own right. The 6-foot-2 guard from the Bronx averages 15.2 points, 6.2 assists and fewer than two turnovers per contest.
Two other areas that should keep Arkansas within arm’s reach of Tennessee is rebounding and defense. The emergence of a healthy Jonas Aidoo gives the Razorbacks a true interior defensive stud. Big Z is more offensive-driven, but Tennessee fans know just how good Aidoo is on the defensive end.
The Razorbacks rank 23rd in KenPom’s defensive efficiency metric, with an emphasis on limiting the 3 (holding teams to 29% from 3).
Tennessee, which remains unbeaten, hasn’t exactly been dominant of late, despite sneaking out wins over Norfolk State and Middle Tennessee.
The Vols’ defense is still dominant, though, limiting the mid-major foes to fewer than 1.00 PPP.
The problem is Tennessee’s scalding hot shooting returned to earth, as it hit below 30% from 3 in the win over Norfolk State.
I suspect Tennessee’s defense will remain elite, which is no real surprise given Rick Barnes’ lengthy coaching pedigree on that end of the floor. The Vols rank second in KenPom's defensive efficiency metric, and that probably won't change much.
However, I have some worries about the Vols’ offense. Shooting is an integral piece for Tennessee, as over 42% of its shots come from distance. Plus, the Vols feel more reliant on perimeter shooting than most Tennessee teams of the past.
Chaz Lanier is this year's Dalton Knecht. Lanier is averaging 19 points while shooting 45% from the field and 45% from 3. He’s not as scary driving as Knecht was, but he’s a better pure shooter from downtown. He’s the key to Tennessee’s offense putting up a crooked number.
Meanwhile, Zakai Zeigler remains a steadying presence, averaging 8.1 assists per contest.
Who’s the true No. 2 behind Lanier, though? I don’t think Tennessee has one. Can a top-five team in the country have Jordan Gainey be the No. 2 scoring option? I don't think so, so somebody else has to help Lanier when he has an off night.
I imagine some shooting regression will hit the Vols' defense, too. Regardless of how elite your defense is, how sustainable is limiting teams to 24% from 3 when opponents shoot nearly half of their attempts from there? It feels like someone will have a huge 3-point shooting performance versus the Vols soon enough.
Arkansas vs. Tennessee Betting Analysis
I don’t see a double-digit victory for the top-ranked team in America here.
I’m willing to fade the Vols because I don’t value them as a top three team nationally.
Meanwhile, I’m looking to buy stock in Arkansas, which has the goods to be a top-25 team from here on out.
The team that's able to defend the arc better likely decides which side secures the cover.
