The Arkansas Razorbacks take on the Texas A&M Aggies in College Station, Texas. Tip-off is set for 12 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Texas A&M is favored by 8 points on the spread with a moneyline of -380. The total is set at 139.5 points.
Here are my Arkansas vs. Texas A&M predictions and college basketball picks for February 15, 2025.
Arkansas vs Texas A&M Prediction
My Pick: PASS | Lean Over 140.5
My Arkansas vs Texas A&M best bet is on the over, with the best odds currently available at DraftKings. For all of your college basketball bets, find the best lines using our live NCAAB odds page.
Arkansas vs Texas A&M Odds, Spread, Pick
| Arkansas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+8 -110 | 139.5 -110 / -110 | +300 |
| Texas A&M Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-8 -110 | 139.5 -110 / -110 | -380 |
- Arkansas vs Texas A&M spread: Texas A&M -8
- Arkansas vs Texas A&M over/under: 139.5 points
- Arkansas vs Texas A&M moneyline: Texas A&M -380, Arkansas +300
- Arkansas vs Texas A&M best bet: PASS | Lean Over 140.5
My Arkansas vs Texas A&M College Basketball Betting Preview
John Calipari has turned his ship around. The Hogs have won four of their past six games, including wins over Georgia, Kentucky, Texas, and LSU.
But Texas A&M is a different animal.
The Aggies legitimately have one of the nation’s best resumes, with the fourth-best record in Quad 1 and 2 games (13-5).
I have some severe worries for the Hogs against the Aggies.
For starters, Texas A&M is the SEC’s best two-way rebounding team and the nation’s best offensive rebounding squad.
Arkansas has been weak on the boards in league play (-37 rebounding differential, per CBB Analytics). The Hogs will likely allow the Aggies to score a million second-chance points while A&M dominates the shot-volume battle.
Additionally, it’s tough to beat Texas A&M’s switching, gap-denial, trapping-zone pressure scheme with on-ball dribble penetration and ball-screen creation. You have to beat the Aggies with floor-spacing and secondary catch-and-shoot creation.
The Hogs’ half-court offense is reasonably on-ball reliant — not to mention rough — and they rank among the SEC’s bottom-five teams in ShotQuality’s Spacing, Shot Selection, Shot Making and Open 3 Rate metrics.
Also, Texas A&M’s defense will force a high isolation rate, and Arkansas is horrific in isolation creation (.66 PPP, 10th percentile, per Synergy).
That said, Arkansas could beat Texas A&M in the Zvonimir Ivisic-Adou Thiero pick-and-pop game. The Hogs could force the Aggies into overhelp and overrotation on the interior and shoot over the top by inverting the floor.
Additionally, Arkansas’ ball-handling has steadily improved throughout the year, and it’s key to take care of the ball against Texas A&M’s pesky on-ball defenders.
More importantly, the Hogs relentlessly hunt early offense in transition, and that’s massive against Texas A&M’s struggling isolation defense. The Aggies have encountered a significant turnover problem in SEC play, which should feed Arkansas consistent easy buckets.
The key to this handicap is Texas A&M’s isolation-reliant offense against Arkansas’ isolation defense.
The Razorbacks also funnel isolation, but they’ve been good at defending those actions on a per-possession basis (.66 PPP, 89th percentile, per Synergy).
As most college hoops fans should know, Texas A&M can’t shoot, and that could be a big problem against Arkansas’ surprisingly elite interior defense — the Razorbacks rank second in the SEC in 2-point defense (47%, per KenPom), albeit on high volume.
Wade Taylor IV and Co. will get interior opportunities against Arkansas, but I’m unsure if they’ll cash in.
I can’t get a good feel for this game between all the conflicting factors, so I’ll likely stay away.
That said, if I felt compelled to bet on this one, I’d probably take the over.
Arkansas should be able to eat in transition and speed the Aggies up. Hopefully, the Hogs can hit enough pick-and-pop 3s in the half-court.
While I have no idea if Texas A&M will score efficiently on first-shot offense, the Aggies should generate enough second-chance offense to supplement their attack.
