The Arkansas State Red Wolves take on the Troy Trojans in the Sun Belt Championship game. Tip-off is set for 7 p.m. ET on ESPN+.
Arkansas State is favored by 1.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -130. The total is set at 136.5 points.
Here’s my Arkansas State vs Troy predictions and college basketball picks for March 10, 2025.
Arkansas State vs Troy Prediction
My Pick: Arkansas State -1.5 (Play to -3)
My Arkansas State vs Troy best bet is on the Red Wolves spread, with the best odds currently available at DraftKings. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Arkansas State vs Troy Odds
| Arkansas State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -112 | 136.5 -115o / -105u | -130 |
| Troy Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -108 | 136.5 -115o / -105u | +110 |
- Arkansas State vs Troy spread: Arkansas State -1.5
- Arkansas State vs Troy over/under: 136.5 points
- Arkansas State vs Troy moneyline: Arkansas State -130, Troy +110
- Arkansas State vs Troy best bet: Arkansas State -1.5 (Play to -3)
Spread
I'm taking the Red Wolves on the spread up to -3.
Moneyline
The Red Wolves should win this game straight up, but I'll play the spread instead.
Over/Under
I have no play on the total.
My Pick: Arkansas State -1.5 (Play to -3)
Arkansas State vs Troy College Basketball Betting Preview
I think this is the ideal Sun Belt title game matchup. While Arkansas State and Troy are the No. 3 and No. 4 seeds in this league's postseason tournament, there was a four-way tie for first place. The Trojans and Red Wolves are the highest-ranked Sun Belt squads in KenPom, though.
The two squads split the season series, with each team winning on the road.
Arkansas State head coach Bryan Hodgson is a member of the Nate Oats coaching tree, so it's no surprise the Red Wolves play fast (59th in adjusted tempo) and shoot 3s (44% of their shots come from deep).
However, the Red Wolves actually defend. They rank 77th in defensive efficiency while holding teams to the 14th-lowest 2 point field goal percentage and the 13th-lowest 3-point percentage.
That leads me to wonder why Arkansas State's defense isn't top-50 good.
The reason why is the Red Wolves allow offensive boards at a 30% clip. They need to clean that up against Troy, which collects endless offensive rebounds.
Arkansas State takes a lot of 3s, but it's been a very streaky shooting team (31% from deep). In its quarterfinal win over Marshall, Arkansas State shot 20% from downtown. But in its win over South Alabama, it shot 36%.
Coach Hodgson hopes for big showings from Kobe Julien, Joseph Pinion, Taryn Todd and Terrance Ford Jr., who could each pop off for 15+ points.
Julien might be the most important player, though. He had a bumpy season with injuries, but he's a matchup nightmare.
Meanwhile, the Trojans' best player — Tayton Conerway — notched Sun Belt Player of the Year honors. He's a phenomenal defender and is a winning player — plus, he leads the nation with a dazzling 6% steal rate.
There's no questioning the strengths of Scott Cross' club, as the veteran is a defensive-minded coach. Since February 1, Troy ranks 58th in defensive efficiency (per Bart Torvik) while holding teams to 44% shooting from inside the arc.
The Trojans also force turnovers 20% of the time, which is a great sign for an elite defense.
Can Troy score enough if it can't force turnovers, though? That's a real question mark since Arkansas State seldom turns it over.
The Trojans are similar to the Red Wolves in terms of shooting a bunch of 3s to mixed results. They're shooting a woeful 29% from deep at a 45% shot rate since February 1, which isn't ideal.
Cooper Campbell, a bench guard, is the only rotation player shooting above 30% from 3. Conerway shot it well versus James Madison — as did Jackson Fields — but both are very streaky.
I love Coach Hodgson's squad in this matchup if it can do a few things — limit turnovers, control the tempo, don't get completely crushed on the glass (which it didn't in the first two meetings) and limit fouls.
That last part is especially true because Troy wants to get offensive boards and easy points at the line. Arkansas State has to make the Trojans earn it.
Play the Red Wolves to -3.
